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I will provide a marker to be lambasted - 2,000 BOE/day - on the bigger side of things.
Would anyone on the board care to hazard a guess as to potential daily flow rates from this drill Assuming as we all expect and the company believe it will be successful.
Hi Adon,
My guess is they will hedge a majority of the non-operated cashflows. The company is reliant on this inflow to plan and drive Paradox (and any other) activity so having more certainty on this element by removing the speculative pricing element allows them to plan with more certainty their future options for Paradox and any new acquisitive goals. We will find out soon.
Market waking up to the forthcoming drill !! Should be 5p+ soon imho.
Drill pad is looking good. Fingers crossed for a start this week and get this show moving again.
Oil price holding well and previous hedging would have helped Zephyr December 23 through to March 24 with maintaining a good price. Now back above the previous Q1 hedging price though. I wonder if they will hedge any more of their non op production?
Adon thanks for your insightful post. It's going to be a stressful time when the drill is underway and you have helped reduce that stress.
Brilliantly informative post at 8.10 Adon !
Adon
Although not overly helpful I don't believe this chat room has really much affect on the price. It's just people expressing their opinions which I guess they're allowed to do but it does get very tiresome- the same old individuals posted the same old negative stuff. Frustration every once in awhile is understandable but it seems they are cutting of their nose to spite their face in a lot of instances. There are some very knowledgeable posters like Don and those are the posts people should look at.
Anyway, I'm positive that we've got the right team in place and this will start to move.
It's a little crew of shorters combining with pre planned negative chat room comments.
Why on earth is everyone selling?! Isn’t this what we’ve all been waiting for?!
If it hadn't failed spectacularly, oil would be flowing and we wouldn't be having this conversation....
A conventional drill into a natural fracture of this nature will flow fine. Zephyr basically executed this type of drill previously and added a tiny lateral on the end once they tamed the initial kick. The plan had been for a long lateral and the method is well proven globally.
As for 'failing spectacularly'... Zephyrs drill was absolutely fine. It was a sudden and catastrophic failure of a surface valve which led to them having to execute well control measures. Part of which is to crimp the coiled tubing to prevent blow out. It is that crimping of the tubing that created further problems as it proved nearly impossible to remove the damaged pieces. Yes it could have been done if they had persevered but the costs and time were outweighed by just redrilling. Hence where we are today.
If you look at the old interviews with mr smiley, this reservoir had been tackled previously in a conventional manner...and spanked all comers because of the pressure. when zephyr did it last year it was with a new natural flow method, untried. it failed spectacularly. this year they are going in with, apparently, the best in the business. i am not an oil person, but i guess with the amount of known oil and gas peresent, the previous drillers did not employ newbies with the promised riches involved, so how this team will fair against the beast, only time will tell. that is why the market is not a free for all yet, and that is why i...in profit, am keeping my beady eye on it. as i said before, i am likely to jump when all the excitement starts, but before the result. timing of course is key. if they manage it, the price will probably fly, if not..wheeeee, white knucle time. as ever..GLA
Should ( hopefully) have started the journey over the weekend. Lets hope rewards awaits after the very long wait.
Setanta 1,
I also have a large investment with more to invest when appropriate but why do you think investors Are Not investing.
The last time we were at this point we were close to 7p.
Why do you think we are at 4.25p now?
The risk normally starts at spudding and a small drop in sp but due to the high risk already there investors are selling %s early.
I still believe this is a great investment now and even more so once the Paradox is producing.
Everyone to their own opinion and this is mine.
GLA.
I am a serious investor and I have a very major investment here. My hope is that all goes well and I will make a packet. I've been here a long time and I think the time is close. That's why I'm surprised at the low level of trading at this point.
Only if there are no more complications.This is Zephyrs main project and have had a major set back.The price will not in my opinion rocket until we know that the asset will produce.Therefore investment is a risk.Once we are producing the investment will be attractive to major investment.
No serious investor will risk a major input of cash until more news shows that the risk is an acceptable one.
GLA.
Thanks Adon, I find your posts among the most informative on this bulletin board.
All (or most) the equipment that was around the well pad now appears to be position around the rig on its new drilling location. Depending on when they call the drilling team in we could have spud rns on Monday.
Whistler. But by the time the five weeks are up the SP will (probably) be miles higher than it is now, and the opportunity for a substantial profit lost.
Patience is ,indeed, a virtue but remember that the early bird catches the worm!
I believe investors are wary due to the pressure in the well and the accident that occurred.Once we have proved that we can extract the product safely I believe that investors will return in droves.For the answer we have approximately 5 weeks to wait.Until that time I would expect games to be played like they have been for the last 2 weeks.
Patience is a virtue,a saying that has been proven many times.
Not! an almost extreordinary lack of that life blood of that commodity given the good news related to the rigging up and imminent spudding. Does one therefore get the impression that the punters are not willing to invest their money so close to to potential gains or that they have serious doubts about the project? Remember one never makes a killing without putting the dosh in in good time!!
Https://www.malcysblog.com/2024/04/oil-price-ujo-zephyr-deltic-hunting-eog-and-finally/
Along with what is currently happening in the paradox and white sands unit (WSU). ZPHR have their fingers in a Helium play.
A bit of research and there has been a new permit application go in on 2nd April for a drill in the Salt Wash area. This is on an existing pad south of the WSU. There is also an existing permit on the same pad recorded but this may have been amended by ZPHR hence the new permit.
What is interesting is it looks like a lot of people use the land they plan to drill on to camp with RVs and Caravans. So they could be in for a shock!!