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It won't happen imo, I don't see any chance of NCYT increasing the offer.
I agree that we remain open to a better offer until the formal vote goes through. In practical terms, however, if and when that comes, the earlier it happens the better. Many years ago, I held shares in Raymarine - they were in a similar position to YGEN and subject to a low takeover offer as part of a pre-pack administration deal. A better offer emerged, but the BOD then hurriedly took the business into the pre-pack administration, effectively blocking the higher offer (which from memory was about 50% higher). The explanation they gave was that there was no guarantee that the higher offer could be completed in time, therefore it was in everybody's interests to simply proceed with the original offer. The BOD's actions created a stink amongst shareholders (and the new suitor), who lost out on a significantly better deal, but there was nothing the shareholders could do, as the BODs judgement prevailed. I suspect the same would happen here if another offer surfaced late on in the proceedings - the BOD would simply say "a bird in the hand" etc.
There's also the second possibility that a group of the largest YGEN shareholders are able to demonstrate that they hold more than 25% of the company and they are open to accepting an offer, but it needs to be higher than 0.52p /share. In that scenario, if the group said they'd fully commit to a better offer at e.g. 1.5p / share (maybe making irrevocable undertakings), would NCYT want to take the risk of taking 0.52p to the vote and possibly missing out, or would they stump up the money to secure the deal, on the basis that even an extra 1p on the deal is only about a year's worth of YGEN's likely revenues?
I suspect that YGEN's revenues are now growing very nicely indeed, so I'm sure that NCYT wouldn't want anything to delay the deal past the date of the interims, when the BOD will be obliged to set that out for the whole market to see. The clock's ticking for NCYT as well as YGEN.
Maybe the below might throw their hat in the ring having already shown interest. This wasn't Ncyt by any chance. Hardly a leading organisation in the sector though imo.
"ongoing discussions regarding a potential strategic investment from a leading organisation in Yourgene's sector".
I would say it's 90% done deal, but 10% outside chance of anyone else showing their hand. If the deal doesn't go through, YGen would just be a fire sale of assets assuming they could even sell them imo. Ncyt could just pick up the pieces from administration, but they obviously would prefer an orderly takeover as proposed. Just my opinion.
Buying Ncyt at this point on the hope and expectation an investor can pursue the Ygen dream of one day attaining the share value heights appears pure folly.
First red flag is that the SP has broadly followed the same trajectory over time, that is in a southerly direction. They may presently have decent cash in the bank, but legal dispute has been mentioned.
Secondly LR is migrating across in his one-person lifeboat from the wreckage he leaves before him. He has seized a significant position on the board. How come? What tales have been sold to Ncyt? Are they in any way related to those sold to Ygen investors?
Hell hath no fury than a PI scorned.
Though Rees would go against it if he didn't have a job lined up like he has at Ncyt.
Moniman, all it needs is for a better offer of at least 10%. The bod and BGF can then drop Ncyt offer.
Moniman
No, we are open to another bidder. Absolutely.
Probably be like last time with a feck up by running out of time even if bidder found. Aimho
Not sure their bod are any better than here tbh.
Twixt, in answer no. The BOD of Ygen have already recommended the offer, that's probably it for you guys. But I'm now a buyer of NCYT as they seem to be acting in a positive manner to go ahead with this recommended deal, despite their DHSC case scheduled for next June.
3, must employ current CEO..lol
What we have to hope for is a new buyer offering 10%+
Will we get it? Imv we are seeking it but outcome uncertain for 2 reasons. 1. Is there serious interest that can translate into a rival offer and 2. Are our useless BOD up to the task of seeking and/or securing an offer in time!!
For what it's worth, once the board of directors recommend a takeover it's almost certain to go through. Very rare it gets thrown out as the alternatives are usually administration or big cash raise imho.
Https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/novacyt-yourgene-five-top-ftse-picks-for-the-next-biotech-merger/
Thanks. And at a loss, is that still claimable as a cgt loss?
GLT, they've a long way to go to get that 75% needed. If the rumours are accurate then there are many big holders who could put a spanner in the works.
I am confident that if it does go through then magically rns galore will suddenly appear.. funny that!!
Then another how many millions more to keep it going?
One wonders then if there are enough shareholders prepared to put up £25 million to buyout YGEN from under NCYT's nose and become a cooperative. Much like a John Lewis of the diagnostic world, I'd throw my investment in.
Lots of conspiracy theories floating about. The situation certainly warrants it!
But, isn't Andrew Leeser appointed pursuant to BGF rights to appoint a non-exec director into the Board so long they hold 10%+? And given BGF have given their support to the deal, surely they believe this is the best route forward?
I hate to say this, and you all know I have lost significantly on this, unless a competing bid comes, then being absorbed into Novacyt with the capital they have, is the best way forward to realise YGEN potential.
And without an alternative, the dissenting shareholders have little negotiating position.
One point to hear in mind is if Novacyt approached us!
Stas, yes I've been saying generally the same for a while that it's been done on purpose . Radio silence month after month when we know there were occasions to rns, not even those reach info ones. What a coincidence the sale figure just about matches his investment. Just very smelly indeed. Step up Andyken.
Not to start a conspiracy but someone suggested to me to consider when LR first started talking to NCYT about buying YGEN, they wondered if it was before the placing and if it was, was the buyout amount known by LR to ensure he purchased enough stock to come out of this at approx. break even. We know that LR has had a relationship for a long time with NCYT, they asked was it a coincidence that even though this forum board could find good news out there concerning YGEN's products and contracts, none of these were ever marketed via RNS. Was it a coincidence that YGEN seemed in all intense and purpose to be in a news blackout, long before the placing, was it a coincidence that indeed no news that might have been positive on the share price was announced. I was asked, would it have been to Yourgene's and Novacyt's benefit to keep the price low so they could announce a 160% odd premium to the price at time of takeover to get it though? It was suggested to me that it might have all been engineered, and that it is not just a case that yourgenes shareholders have just been unlucky investors to have an incompetent at the wheel, but that it could be the case that LR is indeed not incompetent at all, but a manufacturer of deceit or could it have been both. I'll keep my ear to the ground to see if any more snippets come my way.
Http://www.chembiosecuritiessettlement.com/
Looks like the chembio bod told a few porkies in the past and we're outed for it in the end.
It's almost perfectly done where LR can say he has lost money too yet its negligible compared to us all and with a job secured.