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It feels like we have a gusher last chance to get in result possible the morrow?
Mm offering more for big block sales than smaller blocks augers well.
Movement upwards news incoming !!!!!
QUESTION for our resident oil drilling specialists. If there are multiple potential oil layers to drill through, and oil is present in any one layer or all of them, at what point would they flare the associated gas, if at all wrt the current well, and for how long. Would it only be flared if they carried out flow testing? Have Exxon flowed all the successful wells to back up all the estimated recoverable resources?
Thanks in advance. Mally
We made it through last week with no news, which was good news.
Today marks day 51, since the well operations commenced on 28th August (WTE RNS).
I have my fingers crossed that the Sapote well will return successful, nevertheless, I believe we will be drilling again possibly as soon as December 2021 on Canje block, with reference to the Exxon submission to the EPA (page 6) - https://www.epaguyana.org/epa/project-summary2/download/5-project-summary/770-canje-12-well-project-summary
thanks,
Celtics.
Hi, Celtics - no way of knowing. Agree there was information put out there over the last few months so goods researchers previously interested in this region should have picked up on it. But my guess is a lot of punters still are not aware of the potential here and the 24-well drill campaign.
What is interesting is that Clarendon, who were aware of the news, continued to sell down and must be close to having sold out by now. I cannot fathom that at all.
Hi Happysparrow - I agree the risk profile has changed significantly with the announcement of major drilling campaigns across Canje and Kaieteur, however those public notices have been known for quite some time. In my opinion, I do not think they are drivers for the price movements in the last two days.
Canje -
Formal publication 8th August 2021 - https://www.epaguyana.org/epa/publicnotices2/summary/4-public-notices/769-30-days-public-notice-eepgl-08-08-2021
Media Update - https://oilnow.gy/featured/exxon-seeking-epa-approval-for-major-12-well-drill-campaign-at-canje-block/
Kaieteur -
Formal publication - https://www.epaguyana.org/epa/publicnotices2/download/4-public-notices/790-30-days-public-notice-eepgl-12-well-exploratioin-draft-2
Media Update - https://oilnow.gy/featured/exxon-seeking-approval-to-drill-12-more-wells-in-major-exploration-campaign-at-kaieteur-block/
thanks, Celtics.
'it does not follow trading patterns that preceded the last two drills results.'
I think that could be to do with the risk profile having changed. Before, we only had perhaps one more roll of the dice. Now we have about 24 follow on wells. Risk profile has completely changed imo. Don't forget, there has been no RNS from WTE on Exxon's 24 new drills planned, so most investors are not yet aware of the potential - still very much under the radar. Hence new blood may well be entering now.
The cheapest buy price I've seen here since Jan 2018 was around 8p yet even yesterday morning this was still only 9p to sell. Whilst a few will have bought ahead of the move many were likely waiting for signs of life before taking the plunge or are only now aware of it thanks to the sudden move. They will quickly discover how hard it is to build a decent position here and their attempts to do so could send this much higher. GLA
In my opinion, yesterday's price movement followed by today's continued move up is a positive sign towards this 3rd well result. I was unable to obtain a quote to buy at spot yesterday at each time I attempted.
No rational investor (and i would think no institution) would initiate a new long position at this moment in time/accumulate when there had been an opportunity to do so at sub 10p prices in the past 3 months. Initiating a new long position now on Sapote-1 is like playing black v red in a casino given we are so close to the 60 days ... i can only surmise that the price rise is linked to someone accumulating NOW on the back of information known to them and maybe not the market or a gambler with funds they're willing to risk.
Some key points.
- Bulletwood-1 (non-commercial) results were disclosed to the market on 4th March 2021.
WTE opened at 20.5p on 10th February 2021, with the price trending down further as we moved towards the disclosure date. The price closed 16.25p on 3rd March 2021, representing a 20.7% DECLINE over that timeframe (16 trading days).
- Jabillo-1 (non-commercial and relatively fast drill) results were disclosed to the market on 5th July 2021, on 21st June 2021 the price opened at 13.75p and closed at 11.75p on 2nd July 2021. That was a 14.5% DECLINE over that timeframe (10 trading days).
We opened at 9.25p on 13th October and are now currently 13.9p, that's a 50.3% increase. If this holds thru to end of this week and early next week i will feel even more bullish.
I still hope we receive no news this week and there is nothing not to like about this price rise.
What I can conclude is that it does not follow trading patterns that preceded the last two drills results.
thanks,
Celtics.
Maybe FOMO, as a 1bn discovery @ a Conservative 6$ per barrel in the ground to Westmount would be worth nearly treble the MC on this drill along, more importantly it would derisk the future drills and raise the COS. The guidance was up to 60 days for the drill, not approx 60 days - so in reality the results are due anytime. FOMO tomorrow for a Monday RNS may see this rise as investors take a position before a possible Monday RNS.
WTE holds 7.2% of JHI, who in turn have 17.5% of the Canje block - so an effective 1.26% of the block.
Sapote-1 is described as potentially the largest drill on Canje to date, and Jabilo-1 (previous drill) was targeting 1Bnbbls.
So if a positive result and commercial, WTE should have at least 1.26% x 1bn = 12.6Mbbls, worth at say $10/bbl, approx £92m - on this well alone.
WTE market cap is ~£20m after yesterday's and today's rises.
With another 12 drills lined up starting Q1 next year, and seven prospective areas identified so far then the potential is huge.
https://oilnow.gy/uncategorized/exxon-targeting-2022-start-up-for-major-12-well-campaign-at-canje-block/
Of course, what WTE is worth will be down to what JHI is worth and what they do. JHI's plan is to (hopefully) make the discoveries then sell up. I suspect there will be many suitors knocking on JHI's door if things go well.
WTE have talked of a potential RTO previously - guess that might be another route...
Anyway, as Celtics says, many more rolls of the dice to go even if this one doesn't work out.
The next 1-2 weeks are key, particularly this upcoming week ... no news would be good news. Tomorrow will be day 43 on an expected 60 day drill result. In my opinion, the market is not pricing a discovery nor a duster ... there has been little to no volume in the past 2-3 weeks.
For context, Hassa-1 well was drilled in 2020 and is in close proximity to Sapote-1 although at a slightly shallower water. For water depths throughout the basin, you can refer to - https://www.tdi-bi.com/tdi-brooks-international-inc-completes-ebs-program-offshore-guyana/. Hassa-1 was spudded on 9th Dec 2020 (mariners notice 82) and a result communicated on 15th Jan 2021 (37 days) which confirmed 50 feet /15.7M net oil pay in the Santonian interval, a non-commercial discovery. This suggests to me that Sapote-1 drill is probably already at the Santonian interval.
WTE, Eco nor JHI have disclosed explicitly what deeper interval(s) is /are being targeted on the Sapote-1 well other than "upper cretaceous reservoirs", however one would suspect the Santonian interval is the most likely given the 60 day timeframe provided along with the multiple references made by Hess with respect to the Santonian interval being of interest throughout the basin. If Sapote-1 well targeted any deeper intervals beyond Santonian then I would think the drill would take much longer than 60 days ... for reference Tanager-1 took 99 days before a result was returned.
Fingers crossed that Sapote-1 will be a commercial result, however if not, then there is a major 24 well drilling campaign to look forward to taking place across the next 3 years across Canje and Kaieteur starting in early 2022.
As an investor in WTE, for me it is a matter of when not if.
thanks,
Celtics.