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Doing very well in a drifting market
FTSE down vod up whilst x-divi was only a week ago
Previously this was slammed just below 124p two morning in a row. I was thinking that there was a buyer set at just below 124p. Then I thought it might have been a seller- but it’s now looking like MMs dropped it for a buyer. I say the tide has turned for Vodafone. Mikey exit was timed to perfection. Leave when this big ship has turned. Hmm.
Cheapsharesboy. Good day today with the ftse well down. Makes up for yesterday's, strange unexpected fall. Let's hope the falling ftse doesn't drag us down tomorrow?
Looking at the price action over the last couple of days, there's been very strong resistance at around 126-126.50 indicating that someone is selling at those levels. It doesn't really explain the rise today though, which is very odd considering the wider markets were falling the telecoms sector was pretty much flat.
The only real possibilities are that either the price is being walked up to the seller or there's a big buyer in addition to a seller, as there's no real buying pressure from the wider market.
Either way I think today was an oddity and the SP will probably fall in line with markets to the bottom of it's trading range. I actually added a little to my short just before close and the ADR has been drifting downwards since UK close and the US markets are taking a spanking.
ECB meeting was pretty dire today. Downward revisions of GDP growth for the EU, an 0.25% rate increase all but confirmed for July, and a warning that there'll be a 0.5% increase after that if inflation doesn't come down.
There could be a real sh7tstorm coming at this rate, and things could get much worse than anyone is contemplating if Putin turns off the gas to Germany later this year, but that's another story...
compound. Well lets hope the sp rise today wasn't just a case of being walked up to the seller (whatever that is supposed to mean) ?Complete nonsense I suspect? As for why there was a rise today when the wider markets where falling & telecoms was flat, since when has vodafone followed the markets & why should it? If you want to help us plebs! then at least talk sense, not just a load of meaningless nonsense.
"There could be a real sh7tstorm coming at this rate, and things could get much worse than anyone is contemplating if Putin turns off the gas to Germany later this year, but that's another story"
It's been one 5h1tstorm after another over the years I've been investing. Dotcom bubble, Subprime, Covid, now the Ukraine War, there's always something. The rise of Crypto currencies, and the hunt for Unicorns, in the midst of the low interest rates since 2008, are examples of speculative trades reminiscent of the Dotcom bubble. With inflation, and rising interest rates, money should migrate from speculative assets, to the real companies with valuations backed by hard assets and good cash flow. I expect Bitcoin, and other Crypto currencies, will eventually lose most of their value. Not sure about the tech giants, they're getting too big for their own good, I expect the regulators are scrutinising them from all directions. One thing supporting Telecoms, should be the fact that Tech behemoths are totally dependent on Telecom providers to support their business models; Even Apple's business model is totally dependent on Telecoms, through products like Iphone, Apple Music. Apple Fitness, Apple News, iCloud, Apple Podcasts, Apple Books, Apple Card, and Wallet. Telecoms are incredibly important, which makes me wonder why the sector has underperformed for years.
Agree telecom's are the future, the question is how long will we have to wait for it to get £2 plus again, could be the same in another 5 years time
Agree completely Fleccy - there's always something and markets move in cycles. COVID was a bit of a wild card, as markets have never crashed so quickly and the QE that propelled growth stocks was monumental.
I agree that the future is going to be more 'connected' and we are on the verge of the next technical leap forward into the IoT and the Metaverse. Telecoms is going to be essential for that move forward, but so are a lot of other companies. As you well know, 5G will require new phones, local servers and lots of other hardware to run it. That technology is constantly improving and expanding so the market for those companies involved is going to be huge.
If you're looking at 5 year plus time horizons and the underlying mega trend, then it may be worth casting your net wider and researching some of the companies that make chips/memory/graphic cards etc. Quite a few are trading on lower PE ratios than VOD at the moment, and even pay small dividends. I see much more potential in those over the next 5 years plus.
Completely different animals to VOD though as like I said dividends are much smaller and the risks are higher. PE ratios are low at the moment, but there are supply chain issues that could lower current profits and push up those PE ratios, and if we do go into recession then those companies could face a demand shock and further falls of 20%-50% could be possible, although long term there is going to be huge potential for them.
I think now more than ever doing lots of research and diversifying could really pay off in the long term. Tech giants like Microsoft, Apple and Tesla are still trading on very high PE ratios, and there's still a lot of loss making companies that needed to be weeded out. They could drag the markets down, and with them could be quite a few companies who have good long term growth prospects that won't be factored into the SP, so could be could long term buying opportunities.
Anyway, time to buckle up - US CPI figures are being released at 1.30pm so we could be in for a wild ride this afternoon...
"If you're looking at 5 year plus time horizons and the underlying mega trend, then it may be worth casting your net wider and researching some of the companies that make chips/memory/graphic cards etc"
It's funny you mention Graphic cards, NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090 is apparently the GPU favoured by Bitcoin miners, and NVIDIA's price is mirroring Bitcoin's quite well over the last year. I get that Bitcoin/Crypto has been hit as part of the growth sell off, but it does make you wonder.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiRw_-w7KL4AhWMScAKHUiqAv8Q_AUoA3oECAIQDQ&comparison=BTC-USD&window=1Y
I'm not sure what the "Metaverse" is to be honest, at the moment it's an idea imo. To differentiate it, it will probably have to have some sort of interaction with the real world, otherwise it'll be just like playing a computer game. If it is an interactive world, interfacing with the real world, then low latency will be crucial to make it seamless; The servers will probably have to be geographically close to the user, and the servers will require aggregate high bandwidth connectivity, as well as high bandwidth backplanes. My personal view is that the connected future will generate big revenues for the Telecom providers; My view isn't new, it's what I've been saying for years.
You'll see a similar correlation with most crypto currencies and growth shares since they both came off their highs in November. It's one reason I don't see the point in crypto as 2 of it's biggest selling points as an asset was that it was non correlated to equities and was an inflation hedge, but the last 7 months have proved to be the opposite!
NIVIDA is the type of company I'm talking about and it is my target list. Huge growth potential, but PE still too high for my liking. I would buy if it got smashed on a significant market retrace though as the potential is there.
"NIVIDA is the type of company I'm talking about and it is my target list. Huge growth potential, but PE still too high for my liking. I would buy if it got smashed on a significant market retrace though as the potential is there."
NVIDIA's being a bit hyped at the moment, they're pumping the AI and virtualisation narratives. If Crypto mining collapses, then that could be a big knock to NVIDIA's stock price.
"The tech firm saw a drop in sales of its Cryptocurrency Mining Processor (CMP) in Q1 to “nominal” levels compared to $155 million a year ago. The filing does not specify exact revenues on CMPs, but revenues have been falling since last year."
https://cointelegraph.com/news/nvidia-shares-plunge-after-q1-figures-crypto-mining-card-revenue-nominal
Come on, surely we all know by now that all unregulated crypto currency is basically worthless? Totally rigged. It is driven by whales (those rigging the price) & anti government/ anti bank anarchists, who want to see the collapse of fiat currency. Either way it is doomed in the long run. If you have the balls? Which I haven't, try shorting it, but very risky if you don't want sleepless nights! Crypto mining ? what a joke that is in a world where we can't afford to heat our homes, the cost of electricity to mine crypto is crazy.
"Come on, surely we all know by now that all unregulated crypto currency is basically worthless?"
I think most right thinking investors would agree wth you, I certainly do.
I would never invest in a "Crypto currency", even though some have become very rich from it, because it defies common sense in my opinion. Crypto does fascinate me though, due to the number of people emotionally/financially invested, and the exorbitant valuations Crypto has achieved.
Mpesa has achieved what Bitcoin was supposedly touted to do, but for the poor, and not for the benefit of rich criminals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nG2Dq_GuFE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTWJ5kqLU1o
"Mpesa has achieved what Bitcoin was supposedly touted to do, but for the poor, and not for the benefit of rich criminals."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPEi1u4p3Wo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ih7KHcMIlzo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ih7KHcMIlzo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DPMxWxIzN0