Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Jemchipa, you are spot on to be cynical.
There are a tonne of miners who did well last year and found their mcaps to be more than they should have- this is one of them. Alba was the same (also down at around half its plateau price last autumn).
Truth is, noone really knows how this will play out. But the longer this drags on, the less faith I have in BBG.
Its incredible that so many people here actually believed that the Mexican government had been shutdown for almost one year until I contacted the Ministry of Mines/Environment myself and found out it wasnt true.
Yet...still...some people are swallowing everything BBG continues to throw at them.
In an ideal world, we get the maiden JORC and the SP rebounds back to 1.5 and we see advancement in EHs and maybe an early JV agreement for the DSO. Im getting less and less convinced that either will happen.
Nice to have you finally on board tymers
“Free Rude” what you like. Most here don’t really care.
Loaded up 4 weeks ago PQ ready holding for the next 12 months where I expect ATH to be reached I will then slice and free rude the balance. Patience Aliens Patience
The Company is well capitalised with around £4.3 million cash for planned 2021 exploration and we have the potential to add significant value to projects through low-cost development.
This is the reality .. load up boys and girls
In a stagflation scenario all commodity prices will go up. Silver being a tight volatile market has the potential to go up significantly, especially looking at the Gold Silver Ratio.
But if you are unsure, that's the great thing with UFO. As today's article stated:
"The Company is strong in both precious and base metals, ensuring a diversified offering to investors."
@Max the situation this time around has the potential to be much worse and hence much better for silver. However it is a wildly different situation with far too many unknowns to predict how it will play out; In times of uncertainty precious metals have previously been seen as a safe havens, but no-one can guarantee the extent that will be the case this time or how desperate authorities may keep rewriting the rules to defend the status quo.
Much as I recognise what is being done to the dollar isn't good, and have long stated that I expect the Chinses yen to become more relevant globally going forward, I think it is far from certain that the dollar's total demise is a given. Every other Fiat currency is doing badly so I am far from certain the dollar will lose its status as "reserve currency". The game changer will be the new "thing" governments try to impose on us before the whole population reject existing Fiat currencies. Who knows what that new system will be, but past precedent suggests it will be essentially the old system dressed up with a lot of PR and marketing about how it is new and better, most probably through being digital. If the sheeple of the world buy into that then things may rumble on a bit longer, if the people reject what's offered and instead impose their own systems on governments then that is when silver may take off big time... Is that likely though?
I've listened to or read hundreds of conflicting opinions about the future and I've placed my bet on silver with no idea what or when it will pay out, but I do suspect it will pay out at some point.
@HH the situation will be much worse than the 60s. Back then, the US was an unrivalled power. They have just printed 40% of all dollars over the last year and plan to continue to print trillions more. What will happen when the dollar is no longer the reserve currency? = Game over.
@jemchipsa - I do think I can agree with most of your last post, and definitely agree that some of the talk on here is very excitable and overly optimistic in terms of how quickly things may happen. Far better to accept that exploration is slow and uncertain and be pleasantly surprised if things do come good very quickly, than expect everything to come good tomorrow.
I'd be a little less supportive of the notion that UFO are "just going anywhere and not constructively in tune with a business plan" . There is all manner of administrative permitting to get through to do anything in exploration and the last 12months have seen all manner of atypical delays and problems across the whole sector. UFO may or may not have wished to proceed a little differently to how they have, but I am sure that we are following a plan that has had to be adapted to allow for what we have ben able to get permitted, rather than do nothing and wait for things we may have preferred to do.
Judging UFO now would be somewhat akin to judging the performance of a race horse based upon how it stands still in the back of a horsebox in a traffic jam on the M6. I'd withhold judgement of UFO until we have cleared a lot of the industry wide problems, even if that does mean accepting things have been a bit lacklustre these last few months.
@Max111 - whilst what you say about penny silver stocks in the 60's is true, that was different era when the gold price was formally fixed to currency and when silver was part of the day to day coinage in people's pockets. I am sure speculative fever over silver will have its part to play going forward, but I'd be surprised if things followed the same play book as in the 1960's.
@jem - if you can't see how progress is defined by further drill results and will further be defined by the 2nd set and an MRE then no point in debating this endlessly mate.
Both myself and HH are specifically debating around knowledge points and long term prospects - not the share price or short term if someone was to buy today etc. as I tend to commentate on strategy and long term prospects here and on other boards.
Have a lovely evening :-))
No one said the share will double tomorrow or double next week?!
It took 3 days to almost double on the last silver squeeze move.
Last October it took 4 days to more than triple!
If you find a share with with better upside potential and on the boarder of a company like Rio that just issued $9B in dividends, let us know.
Today's article stated, "Alien’s weighting in its portfolio towards silver and iron ore provides a rare offering to the London market." Very true. This is why I'm all in on UFO.
Also "ready to achieve growth and deliver shareholder value." Re-rating news is coming.
Once the herd realise transitory inflation actually means stagflation, silver shoot up, and UFO will go up much more.
In fact, “From 1962-1968, the average penny silver stock moved upwards over 150 times in price, one went up over 1000 times due to a mere doubling of the price of silver and speculative fervour on the part of investors.”
UFO => Going for growth: Alien Metals
https://www.sharebuyers.co.uk/shares/going-for-growth-alien-metals/
Happyhaddock - I take that point on board and understand this, however a large amount of money was raised from the last dilution to improve the chances of getting all the various sites to JV. The reason I would be fearful of the share currently is that no progress has been shown and energy should have been focused on this, which at the moment it feels like it has not. I'm not against more drilling etc, I'm against just going anywhere and it not be done constructively in tune with a business plan. I get that there are technicalities of mining which need due process but this does not stop you working on possibilities and lining things up. Did I say this company is a failure - NO. I said currently its in a stage of decline and best watched for a better time. That time should have been around now but I feel its still much further away and the dilution has done very little to help. Would it be a surprise if another dilution is around the corner - NO and this will lower the price again. Better to wait out the storm and watch out for the first signs of daylight. But at least your post is constructive and gives more information to the newer owners of mining shares. There is too much oooo it will double next week stuff on here currently.
@jemschipa "Why do they need to drill more ?"
To prove up some of our licenses to the point of having JORC compliant resources that majors can realistically value. You may consider what has been done so far "extensive drilling" but most majors wouldn't even consider it scratching the surface. To date we have a very old JORC resource on our remaining silver at EH which in terms of a major partner is such a tiny amount of silver they wouldn't consider it worth the effort. Then we have a drill program for the The Sirius extension the results of which once we get them will feed in to a MRE for a small amount of our iron. The rest of our projects are still so early stage they are far from having any formally defined resources to market to potential partners. If you market them as they are you get no offers, or as happened with DV2 a partner that made, what to me was an underwhelming deal for us in the first place, and even that they pretty quickly walked away from because the drill results didn't come in as they wanted.
Would Capstone have offered a better deal if we'd extensively drilled DV2 in advance such that we could offer them a clearly defined resource; almost certainly yes. Would they have walked away from that deal after a short period - not if they already knew what they were buying.
If people don't know what they are buying they will either, as Dip66 say, not want to buy at all, or make a derisory offer that reflects the real risk of getting very little for their money.
@Nap - I don't think Jem is a shorter mate, more so someone not well versed with the sector :-)
And on this point, I've been or still are invested in many other Miner stocks, GGP, EUA, UFO, ARCM, ROCK, CEY. I'm no expert in the field but know what is required for a successful share not always following a good miner. There are lots of Mining stocks to be interested in and just because I'm a smaller trader with two pots of 20k each doesn't mean I haven't learnt how to make profit off these. So your assumption is as overblown as your confidence in this share by that statement.
@Dip66 -getting a JV in the first place whether good or bad is no easy task
True and this is what I thought was a strength of UFO and made it stand out from the others. Do I still think they could be good - yes, but until I see that proof my money won't be going back in without some business sense. Some of these new investors will believe the pot of gold rainbow crap that some spout on here and WOW that drill result was amazing we will be double by tomorrow stuff. All I want is for them to get a balanced reason for why this share is struggling at the MOMENT.
@jem -getting a JV in the first place whether good or bad is no easy task........consider just a few points form the perspective of a potential JV partner perhaps:
- Responsible corporations with a high level of governance do not throw money around on their own exploration or JV's, they have stringent processes and influential shareholders to answer too
- There are a huge amount of exploration companies and projects to pick and choose from
- Since the last mining boom majors who quite frankly went banana's overpaying in terms of M&A's have cleaned up their act, attracting investors through dividends and a far higher focus on ESG and general responsible corporate governance
Saying you want UFO to secure a JV but don't want them to spend money on drilling is a somewhat oxymoronic statement as we'd end up selling up for pretty much what we bought licenses for if we've done noting to improve understanding of them in the mean time.
Why do they need to drill more ? They have done extensive drilling and results on current ground - so your arguement is null. And I do understand Junior Miners and how they work. There is a difference about finding ground and dilution to fund this and then there is a point to which you need to make it pay. UFO is not a start up company and stop treating like it is.
Sometimes its good to take what you call a bad deal on your first JV to prove a point and show your standard as such.
Rumpy pumpy volume getting bigger each day and MMs haven't got much stock whats going to happen here? Up up and away?
@jem - The chances of getting a JV are going to increase with activity on the licenses to prove them up along with HH's points of then being able to negotiate a better potential deal, you usually have to do enough work (means spending time and money) and show enough potential to gain interest in the first place. Majors are not as agile as Juniors and exploration is more measured and less speculative hence a large part of the reason so many junior explorers exist.
Bill's not responsible for the lab delays, hopefully another set of great results and an MRE will entice a JV for the iron ore.
We're unlikely to get another JV without doing some work on our sites probably.......which is why the EH Tailings if viable would be a great little project.
The fact that we will soon have an initial MRE will help gain interest and also negotiate a better JV deal. Sure, some of the regular posters here are very optimistic shall we say, but a fair few of us are of as more measured nature and still see a large amount of potential in UFO.
It was disappointing to lose the D2 JV but IMO the two key projects/tenements I invested for with Hammersley and E.Hill still remain very much in play. I've been invested for about a year and in this sector that is not a long time or indeed in any context. Obviously it is your own money and I understand your viewpoint leads you to want to exit - but I do say it doesn't appear to be a particularly informed opinion in regards to investing in this sector.
The thing to consider with Hammersley is that it was a well sought after area, also by the majors but we ended up winning the lottery, we've had good drill results and will soon have an initial MRE - I feel that could be a compelling combination for a potential JV.
@Nap - I don't think Jem is a shorter mate, more so someone not well versed with the sector :-)
Jemichips, scared that you short is going to get obliterated. You post stinks of a shorter, or some one very thick, its one or the other you choose ha
@jemchipsa - Getting JV's is easy if you are willing to give away all you've got for a pittance, you get a good deal through drilling to prove up your ground such that potential partners are willing to pay a better price for it. You effectively get paid for taking the risks that reduce other people's risks.
Saying you want UFO to secure a JV but don't want them to spend money on drilling is a somewhat oxymoronic statement as we'd end up selling up for pretty much what we bought licenses for if we've done noting to improve understanding of them in the mean time.
Many here are frustrated by the slow progress but UFO are just doing what junior explorers do; that is raise cash, spend it exploring and hope the results of that exploration increase the value of their holdings. You then raise some more cash to spend on more exploration. It's a slow rinse and repeat situation as you keep plodding forward.
People who invest in a junior explorer expecting quick profits and no fund raising/dilution may benefit from researching how the sector works.
I was big on UFO at the beginning of the year. I liked the way the strike rate of finding ground was good BUT the important bit was the way it had got a JV going. The second part is as vital as the first and that's what makes a Mining share work. I got frustrated in the 1st quarter with lack of news on converting what is to believed as "extremely profitable mining ground" to a JV. Time went on and this looked less and less likely which I may add was the whole reason the massive dilution at the end of 2020 was for to speed up these sites and get them to JV land. The price was hurt really badly by that dilution yet I thought still worth it.
This for the new investors is why this share is the reality of it, don't believe the rainbow chasing rubbish pushed on a board. Had they got a new JV in the 1st half of 2021 your share would be looking great and on its way. But the lack of news over time worried me and I sold out. Did I not believe in the share anymore ? Well Yes and No, I believe Bill can find decent ground and get that side setup well. But this does NOT bring the share price up and with all the costs of drilling and wages that dilution money is starting to disappear. So I still believe in Bill and UFO to find the ground HOWEVER I don't believe in the business side of it where they have to convert these targets to raise money. Fortunately for me, the only JV they did have collapsed and the situation is now well worse. This share has potential because the land has potential but it will never convert that soon and hence I feel your going to get diluted again to raise yet more money for costs. Its sad to see some people not tackling this issue with UFO and would rather catch people out with promises of quick returns. The share is going to keep dropping until they get there act together and get a new JV. Maybe then will I look at this share again with renewed faith. They should be focused 100% on this and not more drills or new ground. Otherwise I feel the money will run out and the dilution will come again and I'm not sure it will survive another as the last one really hurt.
So new investors, I would suggest you have this one on watch and see if they can set the ship on course again. Don't believe it will rebound quick hype because it won't without the Income.