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I whished I pulled out at 280p with a tidy profit, now verging on breakeven. I am not sure if this a cause of the overall failure of the FTSE 250, as I have a few stocks that are half there value or that TL in the £3-4 was just a tech led pipe dream and now they are showing profit it's nothing like what the earlier investors were expecting. It feels a lot like what happened to Just Eat. Is TL destined to stay in the £2-3 range?
If the US market plummets on a recession, which is looking highly likely, do we expect the FTSE 250 to be dragged down with it, given it's not seen any of the US improvement in 2023. I am tempted to get out of all positions and park the money in the bank at 5% until the markets have sorted themselves out and move back in after the crash.
My sentiments exactly pulled 50% of invested money earlier and will dump this if it does not start improving.
This is becoming a Sh*t show here,was expecting £3 by now.
I don't' know about anyone else, but there's nowhere else I'd rather be on holiday than here in the UK right now on a train . It's either too hot, too tinder-dry, too blustery, too 20mph slow, too (Monsoon style) wet, too close to a volcano or too close to a war zone everywhere else.
The BlackRock holding RNS suggests that they may just be trading around a 5% overall position - they appear do that on quite a few companies - and sometimes just shifting a little between their long position and financial instruments (see also their previous RNS on 31 May and 1 Sept). The 15 Sept RNS shows that their position crossed the 5% reporting threshold on 13 Sept which was the week before the BB started.
It looks like the BB volumes are just mopping up a portion of the daily churn, and that appears as if it may now be putting a floor under the SP on a daily basis (ignoring intraday swings). I haven’t checked this for TL but BBs often set out clear limits on the relative price ranges and market volatility that their agent is authorised to operate within on a daily basis.
But logical movements and the current market don’t seem to go together too well so anyone’s guess where it goes from here :/
Hi Corry,
My simple logic was the RNS showing a holding change with BlackRock. I am not clear on the buyback process but if this is just TL buying from the whole market then I was confused why the price would head lower and not higher. Not that I have ever seen the sp move logically on volume for TL, so who knows :)
"out way" = outweigh!
The BB should have a long term impact, up to 12 months for this programme, but buying c.200k shares a day may not have a significant short term impact given the total trading volumes. I think that macro events incl. interest rates, cost of living, and a poor overall market sentiment will far out way any impact from the BB in the short term / day to day SP movements.
The £50m could buy back up to 4% of the company's shares (based on today’s price only) so it should be material over the course of a year, and once the shares are cancelled.
Not sure why you think the shares are being bought from Black Rock? The authority they have is to buy them on the market(s) (via Morgan Stanley acting on their behalf) not direct from any one shareholder, and the list of share transactions confirms they are doing that.
So over the last 5 days TL buy back shares, presumably from Black Rock and the share price falls. Does this make sense to anyone else? Is the buyback a red herring as £50m against a market cap of £1.3bn isn't really going to make a dent me thinks.
And another of circa 528k today.. wonder if this will be a daily task..
Don't worry I'll cease reporting in the buybacks now 😝
Looks like the first trench if buybacks has just occured. £331,716 bought back today.
Long may it continue 👍
It would be great if TL could have made some releases early to assure us that the strike action was having little impact. Beggars cant be choosers though :)
The last time TL were buying back shares the price was up in the £4s. Lets get in to the £3s and see what happens.
Still on the train :) Hopefully the share buy back can push this over £3 and maybe on to £4. fingers crossed. gla
From the 5th sep
Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage of Trainline with a 'buy' rating and 371p price target as it argued it's potentially a 10-15% organic growth business and said the valuation is "very low valuation for such a high-growth and quality platform player".
It said Trainline is a high-growth platform business that it believes investors have largely forgotten about.
"The risks around macro factors, regulation and competition are limited, in our view.
"We believe Trainline is now about to see a re-acceleration in growth to a compound 10-15% per annum., with increasing margins and a potential cash return story developing."
The broker said that trading on a FY24E EV/EBITDA ratio of circa 11x and c.6% free cash flow yield, it expects a re-rating to occur.
"At the current valuation, the UK SaaS and International B2C businesses appear to be included for free," it said.
A great RNS and countless positive media releases. We are one of the top daily rises in the market and getting excellent exposure to PIs for a bright future with circa 20% annual up tick year on year for the foreseeable future 👍
What's not to like 💁🏼♂️
It ought to stop the share price dropping below a certain level, because the company will hoover up any spare shares under that level. But what that level is I don't know.
I'm chuffed !
Anymore insight into the share buy back? Should this boost the SP in future?
Looking at the update - i have to agree :)
Well done all, I for one am just in the green. Should have a lot higher to go IMHO. Results speak for themselves.
I've said it before, this is an extremely well run company.
I just can't believe it's still trading at these levels.
Considering the growth in revenue and profit is way up compared to when we were traded at around £5.00 this has got to be cheap at this price.
Onwards and upwards I would say.
Gla.
£3+ incoming very soon :)
The business appears to be better than ever - lots of headwinds in Europe and even UK doing well. Anecdotally, Europe seemed absolutely packed with tourists this summer, particularly Americans, which is obviously a market Trainline have been marketing themselves towards.
Interesting that they suggest 'inorganic growth' as a possibility. Have they ever suggested this before?
I can say I'm definitely glad. Let's go!