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Two dud zones, one left to try. It seems Trinity is not very expert at reading their own backyard geology. It follows from a series of dud wells last year. Watch your investments evaporate.
$8.3m spent and currently very little to show for it, our ship needs a new captain before we hit an iceberg
Bigger sells just before close of play. Looks like a duster and all this hype about a discovery was a bit premature. I fail to understand why the flow testing was not carried out straight after the drilling. They had years preparing for this.
If by some miracle it is commercial the RNS needs to be positively headed to draw in the punters and not just called operational update
This is far from exciting. The longer this drags on the more chances of a bad result or operational problems.
Time to sell out or farm out for a free carry.
One year ago there was an exciting 6 well drilling program ".. . a meaningful step-change in production is expected in 2023 when the horizontal and deep wells are expected to be on production. " .... Didn't really happen.
This year we are on a single well program, Jacobin. It is months behind and no production has lasted more than a few hours. I think our only chance of return on investment may be if the company is sold. Need that Jacobin result to create value for a buyer. (I am fed up averaging down)
Agreed about the downside, at least after the initial shock if it is bad news at LC1.
You're right Rossannan. I misread that part. Still leaves 227 feet of upper zone net oil pay left to test.
Its a punt, sure, but the thicker net pay of the upper zones should have much less risk of sands than the thinner net pay.
The enteprise valuation here is now about £10 million. I would say failure is mostly priced in by now, so the downside risk certainly over the medium term should I hope be minimal.
Marineclark
"Over 290 feet of net oil pay encountered in the Jacobin well"
I think you may have the wrong end of the stick.
The company has indeed stated that over 290 feet of net oil pay was encountered in the Jacobin well, but that was in total - only 63 feet of that net oil pay was encountered in the deeper exploration targets.
The shallower net pay has no transformational potential and while the deeper net pay could have this in theory, two of those three deeper zones have already failed. LC1 is the last chance saloon both for Jacobin and this BoD.
It is currently very hard to see where the balance of risk and reward lies at the current share price. Does its recent dip signify that someone knows something? Who knows?
"§ Over 290 feet of net oil pay encountered in the Jacobin well"
Just to put this in perspective, 290 feet is about the height of big ben - a crap load of oil, just need it flowing nice and good now.
If it does, my money is on a 2 bagger+ at current price. Price is postive so day, could actually be the first green day in 5 weeks. Admittely, I bought a little too early, but its never easy getting the perfect timing .
GL folks, and DYOR.
Well said Roty
Sales were only £61k today. I would have thought if the results were being circulated the sales would be much greater.
Some of the problems here are:
- Existing oilfields are in decline.
- It will cost money to develop any new discoveries
- The global market for oil seems to be in freefall.
- Management has admitted Jacobin costs have overrun but given no detail
- The PR here has been poor and it will take time to build up trust again.
- There will always be sellers but very few new buyers are being attracted.
- People are panicking and offloading before the results.
The way to get the share price moving is:
If Jacobin successful as a commercial discovery with good flow rates.
Confirm how the field development is going to be financed. TRIN cannot borrow the money, the market would prefer a jv option rather than a discounted placement.
If Jacobin is non commercial:
Confirm how Trinity takes this forward and clarify the current financing position. Again the market would prefer a jv farm in rather than a placement for any future drills,
Finally if management believe the company is materially undervalued and the share price continues to slide, simply place it up for sale to realise a decent quick return for shareholders.
Price shows that someone knows about further bad news coming :-(
Price reached 100p on Jacobin discovery in August
From the RNS:
"§ Over 290 feet of net oil pay encountered in the Jacobin well, including 63
feet of net oil pay in the deeper exploration targets."
I presume that the 63 feet of net oil was the deep zone which was terminated due to sand.
That still leaves the upper zones, with 290 feet of net oil. Not being an expert, but the chances of sand problems in this zone must surely significantly less.
Not long to go now for results, but if the flow test is succesfully then this should easily double IMO. Worth a punt, I reckon. As bad news is probably mostly priced in.
DYOR.
There appears to be some nervousness before the test results is due on the upper cruise zones. With 20p worth in cash, I think any bad news is mostly priced in. Could see this doubling on good news however.
In a similar vein, the IMC presentation saw the first mention, AFAIK, of the problem with LC2. The share price is where it is because all this leaves folk wondering, rightly or wrongly, what they are not telling us about LC1.
“further sand production issues were still experienced”
Good point - that is worth comparing to the story they came out with later, in the IMC presentation. Failing to get their story straight destroys trust.
"Trinity Exploration & Production (TRIN.L, 57p, £22m) Testing of the Jacobin-1 well is now focussed on the discovered oil zones in the Lower Cruse 1 upper intervals. Testing of the Lower Cruse 3 is being terminated, as despite clearing the sand blockage, further sand production issues were still experienced. The upper two zones are well developed oil-bearing sandstone intervals with thicker net pay zones for testing and generally better developed than the deeper reservoir encountered at the LC 3 level. The Company expects to perforate the upper zones in the well by mid-December. Trinity Exploration & Production. "
You need to rework those figures using actual TRIN accounts - you have fallen into the operating breakeven/“TRIN is throwing off cash” trap.
Regrettably, I am not able to attend tomorrow because I am abroad. Whilst aware that I could submit a question, there would be no opportunity for follow-up, so little point. These are the questions that I would have raised had I been able to attend. If anybody attending is prepared to table these on my behalf, I would be most appreciative:
1. Past presentations have claimed that profitable base production will decline, so as to justify costly and highly speculative explanation to replace it. Has there been any geotechnical analysis to justify the claim of declining base production? Based on current WTI prices has there been a cash flow projection prepared for the business showing returns net of all new exploration?
2. Why do we not see any share purchases by executive members of the BoD? Whilst purchases are not permitted during closed periods, there has been ample opportunity over recent months, outside of closed periods! The lack of purchases is hardly a ringing endorsement by the BoD in their own exploration strategy?
Just remember the drill was expenses and costs have exceeded budget. We need a successful Jacobin update to kick start a bull run or the MM's will bring this down again.
Yes it is a bargain but it could well do with some better PR, and by that I mean engaging with a few promoters who have a big following on twitter etc.
I think Jacobin is a big discovery but do your own research. We should know next month. If it is a discovery they should have access to borrowings to develop the field or do a bit of a farm out.
DIVI HERE IS 0.5P .CASH APPROX 11 MILLION DOLLARS 2850 bopd break even approx 34 dollars so 2850x31 is 88350 a day profit monthly is over 2.6 million .Correct me if im wrong .reserves are great 60 0dd million barrels
Trinity is an independent oil production company focused solely on Trinidad and Tobago. Trinity operates producing and development assets both onshore and offshore, in the shallow water West and East Coasts of Trinidad. Trinity's portfolio includes current production, significant near-term production growth opportunities from low-risk developments and multiple exploration prospects with the potential to deliver meaningful reserves/resources growth. The Company operates all of its ten licences and, across all of the Group's assets, management's estimate of the Group's 2P reserves as at the end of 2022 was 17.96 mmbbls. Group 2C contingent resources are estimated to be 48.88 mmbbls. The Group's overall 2P plus 2C volumes are therefore 66.84 mmbbls. Mkt capt 22 MILLION BIT of good news 1 pound hit
Undervalued COMPARED TO OTHERS 3000 bopd cash etc small mkt capt i like gla
Good for you.
They have acquired alot of decent acreage. Could be a jv or takeover on the cards especially if the well gives decent commercial flow rates.