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Ab76
That barrage of quotes does not really answer the question, but if you like I will put it another way: on what basis can they suggest that Jacobin is commercial when it has not even been flow tested?
Doubtful that Trin would deploy a heavy duty workover rig and crew if there wasnt a commercial value to the well. They know its commercial, they dont know to what extent.
Https://twitter.com/i/status/1688619664870400000
Expect more people buying into TRIN and PTRO today (also work a look), they finished in the top 5 risers on the leaderboard yesterday so getting very much noticed, TRIN finished 3rd and PTRO top of the pack .
Here's hoping for another solid day on both
…The well has been cased to 10,021 feet and is being prepared for a series of production tests that is likely to commence with the deepest oil-bearing reservoir, and first production is expected during September. This timeline is driven by the demobilisation of the drilling rig from the site and installation of a heavy-duty workover rig to run the completion, perforate and tie the well into production facilities. A further update on production rates, fluid properties, as well as future plans will be provided at that time.
The Jacobin results validate both the structural and stratigraphic model demonstrating the existence of a deeper turbidite play across Trinity's entire Palo Seco area, and the recently awarded Buenos Ayres block. The integration of the onshore 3D seismic over the Lease Operatorship blocks purchased in 2021 has been key to the understanding of the sub-surface. Data from the well will now be used to de-risk and re-rank the remaining "Hummingbird" prospects across the Palo Seco blocks and those recently mapped within the Buenos Ayres block.
Jeremy Bridglalsingh, Chief Executive Officer of Trinity, said, "This is a very significant and material achievement by the Team. To find virgin oil in our mature acreage points to a step-change in our understanding of the hydrocarbon system, the remaining resource potential and how we can approach the exploitation of these resources.
"I would like to congratulate the Trinity Team on this success. We have demonstrated a true competitive advantage by the hard work in, building our geological understanding, working through the many aspects of planning and delivering a complex well and critically, safe execution of drilling operations.
"I would also like to thank our partner Heritage, for their valued help and assistance in facilitating the drilling of this well. The next step is to undertake a full production testing programme, that is expected to commence during September. We look forward to updating shareholders on our progress."
Here’s Trinidad and Tobago’s Energy Chamber (see https://energynow.tt/blog/trinity-jacobin-1-oil-discovery-confirmed ) write up on Jacobin:
Trinity Exploration has confirmed the Jacobin-1 oil discovery in the Palo Seco area. The company has stated that over 290 feet of net oil pay was encountered in the Jacobin well, including 63 feet of net oil pay in the deeper exploration targets.
While production volumes are still to be determined, the news of the exploration success will be welcomed in Trinidad & Tobago, where oil production has been declining for many years. In an attempt to attract new investment in Trinidad’s mature oil sector the Government responded to industry advocacy in 2022 and made some changes to the tax regime to improve project economics and attract investment in oil production. These changes included making permanent the previously temporary measure to raise the threshold price at which windfall Supplemental Petroleum Tax (SPT) comes into effect for small onshore producers (defined as companies producing less than 4,000 barrels per day). Other changes introduced last year also included a new lower sliding scale SPT for production from new offshore wells. While these changes were welcome by the industry and helped attract investment from companies like Trinity, there has been a continued call for further reforms to encourage new investment in mature fields and the infrastructure needed to safely increase production.
The Jacobin-1 well was spudded on 15 May 2023 with an objective to appraise and explore the potential of Lower Cruse sandstones within the Palo Seco area of the prolific Southern Basin.
According to Trinity, drilling samples, wireline logs and pressure testing indicate that the well encountered significant reservoir and hydrocarbon accumulations in the Lower Forest, Upper Cruse and Lower Cruse. The exploration section of the well encountered net reservoir thicknesses varying between 45 to 190 feet. An aggregate of 63 feet of net hydrocarbon pay was identified in the deeper exploration section of the well. Reservoir pressures appear to be high (up to 7,500psi) and indicate virgin pressures.
In addition, and as previously announced, 228 feet of net pay was found in the secondary target section, adding to the commercial attractiveness of the well.
Data acquired from the well are being analysed further by Trinity's reservoir and petroleum engineering teams through dynamic modelling to design an optimal completions strategy for the stacked pay encountered within the exploration section…
On what basis can you say that “Jacobin is commercial” when it has not even been flow tested?
And here’s Malcy’s comment:
“This is undoubtedly a great find by Trinity, over 290′ of net pay in the well and deeper targets is not to be sneezed at. They say that there is a ‘significant reservoir and hydrocarbon accumulation in the Lower Forrest and the upper and lower Cruse’ which sounds good.
“However at present there are no flow rates, the drilling rig is being replaced with a heavy duty workover rig in order to not only test but also run the completion, perforate and tie the well into production facilities. This means I guess that the company are certain of the well flowing but I would just prefer to see the flow rates before giving it a definitive value.”
https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/08/oil-price-beacon-trinity-egdon-reabold-prospex-and-finally/
Touchstone appears to have risen today, at least in part, in sympathy with Trinity. Although they’re different, success with Royston’s testing (which is due soon) may repay the favour whilst we wait for September’s results.
Here’s the link: https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/08/07/an-oil-stock-that-could-double-in-value/
Just published.
'An oil stock that could double in value'
I doubt it! The realisation will set in with how cheap this share is. On current earnings and profit it should be a lot closer to £2. If TRIN increase production two, three or four fold then I’m sure you can do the maths as to the possibilities here. There will also be tips from some notorious oil and gas experts to come over the next few days and weeks which will cause the herd to arrive! Hold onto your golden tickets is my advice!
Looks like the share price will be moving side way until the next news?
Only boost to production and reserves from Jacobin will be welcome (especially as Trinity have forecast that a successful well will pay for itself, $4.5 million, in less than a year), but the real prize is what success means across Trinity’s licences.
Success at Jacobin proves the seismic analysis showing another eight deep wells in the Palo Seco area and many more in the newly acquired, previously un-drilled, Buenos Ayers licence. The presence of deep oil in BA alone may enable Trinity, in the words of James Menzies at the last presentation, to double, triple, quadruple reserves. Doubling, tripling, quadrupling reserves should increase the share prices by at least a similar magnitude. And that’s before taking into account that Trinity’s share price is considerably undervalued at present (on Friday it was trading on about four times 2023 earnings) and the boost that will come from successfully developing Galeota (which has proven reserves, but which isn’t yet in production as it’s offshore - update due next month, with potential drilling next year).
Just wondering what the price would be if production rate is good from this well.
PRTO and MODE doing well , MODE is about to break again .
Wow only 90 posts here since I last rebought just before Christmas 22/12/23 for 106p.
By last week they had fallen to 71.5p .
Good example of buying into the rise ,up 35% today at 100p.
10 months ago sold for 123p in Truss PM market .
For TRIN and PRTO (Worth a look too) this morning.....nice RNS....expect a strong afternoon for both....come on
Given todays update, the extremely low Mcap, the fact this company is EBITDA cash positive month after month with current production, fair value has to be somewhere between £3-£5 a share right now imo
News here today.
Have bought in, will add more later, game changing moment for Trinity!
It’s excellent news that Jacobin is commercial, but even better still is that it “validates the existence of a deeper turbidite play across Trinity's entire Palo Seco area, and the recently awarded Buenos Ayres block”. There are another eight deep well prospects in the Palo Seco area and many more in the un-drilled Buenos Ayres block.
Hopefully Trinity and shareholders will now reap the reward. And a big reward it should be: as James Menzies, one of the members of the Technical Committee that reviewed the detailed analysis that revealed the existence of these deep plays, said at the last presentation, “if this hypothesis works out we have the opportunity to double, triple, quadruple our reserves base just from this one [Buenos Ayres] block alone” (see https://youtube.com/watch?v=vpvDZW_NAE8&pp=ygUjdHJpbml0eSBleHBsb3JhdGlvbiBhbmQgcHJvZHVjdGlvbiA%3D at 33 minutes in).
Share pad as a 2 pound target share price here underated
Very nice
This morning's RNS looking more positive. :-)
Great News.
Onwards & Upwards.
Cheers
Daily trades have almost disappeared. It was only TRIN buying their own shares. Now it is almost no-one.
Well the market is assuming a non commercial drill. zero interest here