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Its ok, found the RNS on 29/11.
What happened here?
sorry lol
Sorry wrong board
There has been a lot of chat on this BB on the intrinsic value of DT and the target price assigned by the three brokers. These brokers will use Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCF) and the outcome will depend mainly upon the Discount Rate (DR) used, the time frame (years of analysis), Revenue and costs per year, tax rate and the terminal value (assumed value of DT in the last year of the analysis).
I have updated my simple DCF model (that excludes CAPEX as this is not a major factor) based upon my latest thoughts on what is possible and to demonstrate the sensitivity to the assumptions made on the valuation – a accurate forecast is of course impossible given the many unknowns. The base case assumptions:
Analysis time: 10yrs
Discount Rate : 10%
Revenue GR: 50% for first 3 yrs then decreasing linearly to 15% in Y 10
Margin: -5% Y1; 0% Y2, 7.5% Y3 the linearly increasing to 25% in Y10
Tax rate: 20% flat
Terminal value: 15 x net earnings in Y10
This gives a Present Value (PV) per share of 883p. So a SP of 883p would give a 10% annual return.
Some sensitivities on the PV: DR 15% = 578p: 20% increase in RGR each year = 1440p, 20% decrease in RGR = 528p: 20% increase in margin = 1061p: 20% decrease in margin = 706p
I remain comfortable that at least something like my base case assumptions can be achieved so I remain a long term holder. in his speculative share. There is further huge potential for their technology IMHO.
In case you missed our webinar with TR European Growth the recording and stockopedia report can be found here: https://www.sharesoc.org/seminar/sharesoc-webinar-with-tr-european-growth-trust-trg-6-july-2021/
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We are hosting a webinar with TR European Growth Trust on the 6th July which may be of interest to current shareholders and potential investors. Ollie Beckett, Portfolio Manager, European Equities. Responsible for Janus Henderson Investors European Small Cap strategy will be presenting: https://www.sharesoc.org/events/sharesoc-webinar-with-tr-european-growth-trust-trg6-july-2021/
DOWN AGAIN AND YOU WONDER IF IT WILL EVER GO UP. HOWEVER WE ARE SURE THAT IN THE LONG TERM IT WILL PICK UP AS EUROPE SETTLES AND THE LOW VALUES WILL TEMPT INVESTORS.
With the trust so low it is a really good buy. Are you better buying when it is around its HIGH or when it is around its LOW
Which will give the better return. Why so many jumping ship when it is low surprises us.
The shrewd ones will be topping their holding up.
We added to our holding, but it then dropped a little more. Looks a good buying opportunity.
Sorry to hear that Scudsurfer. To be honest, I wish I'd sold-off back in January as the SP is down almost 20% since then. This isn't due to the strength of the holdings, or the exchange rate (£ to Euro) it's mainly due to confidence in this investment trust. The SP has gone from a slight premium to NAV at the end of March, to a 11% discount to NAV this week. Whereas the benchmark index MSCI Europe SMC has remained fairly level. This could be a buying opportunity.
This has only ever gone down since I bought it. Doh
The SP is on the move again - it has yet to retest the ATH of mid-October (and is a bit below my 31Dec17 prediction of 1300) but I'm happy with 1200+
Hit another 12-month high at 1279 in mid-October. Has since retreated about 10% off that high but the SP has stabilised and I'm expecting the climb to recommence and top 1300 by 31st Dec 17.
Another high hit today at 1088.
What a performance! 12-Feb-16 563 06-Feb-17 844 That's 49.9% uplift in 12 months. Thank you.
ok
Just took quick look , need to do more research ;- TRG imfo ;- https://www.asbsecurities.co.nz/_pdf/TREG_Fact_Sheet.pdf ;-http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON:TRG BW