Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
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BUT UK and Irish listings will be cancelled, so we may see a price drop initially. RNS give a projected value of over E2 though.
Good news day
Great to read this morning's positive update, results in March will be good. Pity no mention of Dole.
nomlungu: thank you
This really is rather an exceptional return, given the collapse of food service. We remain on a PER of 8.8, and although leaving the EU may have an impact, this still seems cheap to me. There could be reads across to other suppliers such as FIF and PFD, though these two have already risen in the past few weeks.
Nice
"Sales, Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Earnings Per Share are now expected to be slightly ahead of full year 2019."
LSE just show the data that has been fed to them by their data provider. The London Stock Exchange just report the transaction once, and in Euros which might explain why the £ denominated transaction is cancelled [other Euro transactions are not reported either]. I have put a copy of the CSV file on the link below:
https://bit.ly/394L1Qq
The £1 million buy seems to have been corrected on LSE!
Can I trust LSE?
RNS notification of a position on the way in the next couple of weeks? There is great value here. Closed in Dublin €1.308. Hopefully the SP will be higher when results are announced the 1st week of March. GLA
That's quite a chunky buy
Like BAKK, TOT is now 'taking-off'. There are some large TOT trades ... £1 million to day. I only wish I had bought more!
Share price continues to recover very slowly, €1.23 in Dublin this morning. Could be quite some time before we see €2.57. The next Dole update will be telling. GLTA
Goodbody Morning WrapPage 201 Oct. 20Total Produce Attractive valuation further illustrated by Mission Produce IPO Mission Produce (AVO US), the global avocado grower and distributor, priced its stock last night ahead of its IPO today. The stock was priced at $12 (vs $15-17 touted range) which values the company on an EV/EBITDA multiple of c.8x on the 2019 outcome (11x PE). However, profitability that year was called out as abnormally high due to a non-recurring fall in sourcing costs. The multiple based on this year’s estimated EBITDA is closer to 12x (19x PE).
The business has been growing strongly delivering a revenue CAGR of 14% p.a. since 2009 according to the S1 IPO document, with the global market expected to continue growing c.6% p.a. out to 2026. From our back of the envelope calculations it has normalised EBITDA margin of around 10% (backward integrated and takes ownership of produce as well so earns higher margin).
While we note Total Produce’s growth has been +5% p.a. since 2009 (+10% p.a. inc Dole) with a 2.5% EBITDA margin (3.5% inc. Dole), we consider its business profile to be better diversified from both a geography and product perspective. This contributed to the resilient performance seen in its most recent H1 update. Furthermore, Total Produce is trading on just 7.5x FY21 PE and c.6.5x FY21 EV/EBITDA (inc. share of Dole net debt & EBITDA), which is a significant discount to the valuation placed on Mission Produce.
While priced lower than expected, Mission Produce has still listed at a substantial premium to Total Produce which, in our view, illustrates the severe disconnect between the company's strong underlying fundamentals and its current share price / valuation
Try Degiro or a Dublin broker.
I bought a chunk of shares recently - nothing currently available to buy on either Jarvis or Best Invest but Jarvis only offering 101 on the bid.
£400m market capitalisation and a 14% spread - just does not make sense to me.
But then neither does Brexit so what do I know?
Further comment from Davy this morning. (Remember free advice .......)
Total Produce
Equity materially divorced from fundamentals
The underperformance of the Total Produce equity is materially divorced from recent operational execution and delivery. Strong first-half trading is evidence of an agile economic model and resilient category. We believe such quality and defensive attributes are being overlooked by the market – in addition to the growth opportunity of Dole and flexibility afforded by a prudent deal structure. We see material upside to the equity (60-70%) and believe the valuation discount to peers is unwarranted. We reiterate our ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Total Produce
Strong execution and category resilience drive impressive H1 out-turn
Total Produce’s interim results highlight the critical importance of the produce category to consumers and the relevancy of its operating model to B2B partners. Against an acutely challenging backdrop (and historical 20-25% exposure to the food service channel), flat like-for-like (LFL) sales through the first half is a stand-out performance. With a robust profit performance and more constructive outlook, we will nudge up our EPS by 2-3% (which captures an FX headwind). Trading on 8.1x FY 2020 EPS, there is a material dislocation between the equity and fundamentals and we reiterate our ‘Outperform’ rating.
AGM tomorrow, hopefully there will be a more informative review on Dole, all I could see is they have reduced their borrowing by $20M. The good news is that people are still eating our product.
The six months to the end of June saw revenue up 2%, which is pretty decent given the food service side has effectively fallen to zero for the last two months. However EPS is down 38%. This needs at least another year to see which way we are going.
Certainly have destroyed shareholder value with Dole Purchase. If they buy the rest will probably issue more paper and destroy it further with such a dilution of current holders. A pity as it is a good if not exciting business.
Interim results next Thursday and AGM on next Friday. The SP is really stuck. We must be due an update on the next % of Dole to be purchased. I'm not sure about the timeline.
E1.11 in Dublin this morning, a long way shy of all time high of E2.57. I can wait.
Heard from a wine supplier, he expects 30% of restaurants will not reopen.
They will have lost a lot of business as catering industry is all closed I know these markets well and I know total supply a hell of a lot to the catering industry. I doubt the surge from other shops buying has countered the loss from catering industry. I maybe wrong but just heads up!