The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
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It just can't quite crack 120! Interims due next week so hopefully that will provide the catalyst. Dividend can't be far away - I'm actually surprised it hasn't already been reintroduced as it's very easily affordable at this point. My minimum target is around 200p, at which point I'll decide to sell or hold based on the dividend and the future growth prospects (which seem negligible at present).
TNI will report in August on half year and we can expect debt continuing to drop (it should be debt free within 18-24 months), revenue starting to stablise, free cash flow being very high and cost savings on track holding up the profits. On top of this over the next 12 months we should see the UK economy starting to improve which we know has a exponental postive impact on advertising. This coupled with the commonwealth games in Scotland in 2014 and a world cup to boost advertising means at last we should see PE on this stock getting back to where it deserves (significantly higher than now).
Some big director purchases today, showing that they have confidence in the company's future and believe the shares have further to go.
Take a look at my earlier posts on this one. The latest update is very encouraging as revenues are improving and take a look at the statement and the digital audience this company now has ! On top of this it is still hugely cash generative and debt is falling rapidly and based on the update there will be no debt within 18 months. A dividend must be around the corner and the new team at the top seem to have a great strategy for growth. With EPS of circa 3x the potential here is enormous...............top up.
Trinity Mirror upgraded by Numis 16th May 2013, 09:52 Numis has upgraded its recommendation on newspaper group Trinity Mirror [LON:TNI] to ‘buy’ from ‘add’ after the company published a “solid” first quarter interim management statement for the 17 weeks ended 28 April 2013. The City broker has a price target of 132 pence per share on the stock offering a potential upside in excess of 40 per cent. At 9:50am: Trinity Mirror share price was up 8.88 pence at 101.63 pence.
Gone long ist thing. Recovery mode going well here...... Key Highlights · Improving revenue trends, in particular circulation revenues · Good growth in digital audience with unique users1 up 25% year on year to 31 million and page views2 up 36% year on year to 163 million · Continued strong cash generation with net debt falling by £25 million to £132 million · On track to deliver targeted structural cost savings of £10 million in 2013 · We remain confident in the outlook for the Group's performance in 2013 Outlook Revenue trends have improved over the 17 week period, despite the trading environment remaining challenging. We continue to expect an improvement in the rate of decline in revenues as we progress through the year as the benefit of our strategic initiatives start to take effect. The benefit of our strategic initiatives and our targeted cost savings of £10 million gives the Board confidence in the outlook for the Group's performance in 2013. http://www.investegate.co.uk/trinity-mirror-plc--tni-/rns/interim-management-statement/201305160700078309E/
I'm afraid the broker is putting on a brave face. He recently mentioned TNI being a trophy asset for a rich individual when he really wants them to release value to shareholders. You are basically saying that by summer TNI will get back to 110p. The board walked all over shareholders once again. Had they reinstated the dividend the group could have hidden the falling revenue and digital earnings. The share would have still been on the up but now eyes will be on that Q1 update.
What is becoming clear from both TNI and JPR is that they are at last finding a path ahead that looks like it will lead back to growth and this path is called Digital and the explotion of tablets. Fortunetly for TNI they have debt reducing rapidly and a great cash cow in their print business.......this will help fund this digital move. JPR share price is moving fast as Highfield has vision and is exploiting this. TNI looks the better option due to the balance sheet firepower. There must also be takeover options in the future as well as consolidation. Finally after years the road ahead looks bright.......keep the faith.
That's the point. Daily Mail group sold their Northcliffe titles to Localworld for £52m as well as getting a 38.7% stake. TNI paid £14m for 20% and still have their dwindling assets. Fox is a non-executive director of Localworld so a sale of the regional titles will surely happen - but the time to cut this deal was back in November. Reminds me of Fox's acquisition at a premium and subsequent firesale of Mamagroup at HMV. Dilatory and lacking conviction. Optimum FX: It gives me no pleasure to say that I called this one but: I CALLED IT FELLA!!!! The only difference is that I thought it would be a train wreck and it seems that it will be a slow motion car crash.
It is undervalued/not undervalued because it pays no dividend. The board has learnt nothing. You could say Fox is playing his new card but the FD knows the shareprice history. I sold out at 1.18 taking profits as it all depended on reinstating the dividend or selling assets into Localworld. Cash generative, EPS, is irrelevant if not paid out to shareholders. The pay down of debt at full throttle makes no sense as interest cover is strong. They could easily refinance 50% and carry on paying 50% with cash. Never understood the reduction of pension contributions when cashflow was strong and this could become a concern. I was a supporter of TNI but the news on digital/strategic review was poor. They are basically saying our current recruitment and property sites will never compete with current market leaders and £8m will be wasted on buying start-ups (owners making a nice earner) and we end up with another Happli. Happli cost £3.7m, a dividend payment in itself. Digital income is 3 yrs away. Can see a drop in share all year as 1st quarter is already poor and come year end people buy back in. Fox is not the man to lead a media group and Grigson was very quiet on the call. If you listen in on the call only one analyst dug for answers and that was Panmure. The nightmare scenario is that they invested £14m in Localworld to support regional media rather than dumping off their titles to some fool.
Spot-on from 1034. A few months ago this was priced like it wasn't a going concern, which was simply ridiculous. The recent SP increase is only the beginning - it's still one of the most undervalued shares on the market. Throwing off cash, TNI provides the perfect argument against the efficient market hypothesis.
Take a closer look at the report.........£107m profit, EPS increased, debt significantly down, revenue down driven by National title back on line on Sunday. TNI will clear debt in 2015 and as already said will drive huge sharholder value. I expect this share price to be above £2.00 within 18 months. Please also look at the exec incentive plan........its pays out max at £2.00 share price !
It was priced as if it was going bust . It's now pretty clear it isn't, and the rise since last summer has reflected this. The debt is being paid off very comfortably out of normal cashflow, and once that is done there is scope to pay a very decent dividend. Newspapers are still read in large numbers, despite the obvious decline from the pre-internet era and there is still money to be made from them. TNI also owns a lot of property in attractive locations which hasn't been revalued for years. A p/e of 3 really isn't doing justice to what is there, and that's before you look at what might be achievable from newer digital businesess going forward which they were admittedly slow to get to grips with, but the new management seem to be heading in the right direction now.
i think the current SP is very fortunate, given the trading range over last couple of years it could have been alot worse and I dont see any fast correction coming anytime soon. i havnt traded this for a while but to add a bit of balance to the board i dont see the appeal in this at the moment.
Completely unjustified fall and now ludicrously cheap. On the divi, I agree it would have been nice to get something, but it's an awkward situation as they have an agreement to match any dividend payment with a similar contribution to the pension scheme, so whatever they paid to shareholders would have cost them double. The sooner they can get the debt cleared the sooner this company can become a real cash cow, with the potential to be a very attractive income stock. The pension deficit should reduce over time anyway as markets improve generally. It's all a question of priorities. TNI is a stock which can go down very rapidly (as we have seen!) but the reverse is also the case and a few positive comments about the value here could send this flying back up.
Shareholders are being told that any dividend is at least a year away. The dividend should have been reinstated 2 years ago. The original reason given was awaiting an upturn in the general economy. We now know that the economy could flatline for another two years so the board needed to change tack. Panmure have supported TNI but even the analyst could not believe the lack of respect for shareholders. The board appear to think they can get one over on the shareholder but the share has a history of dropping 40% after a no show dividend. Debt is not high so a dividend of 2-3% was achievable. I thought Simon Fox came across weak on the call and to think that Vijay was up for the position is worrying. Digital income is not there, Happli wasted millions, goodwill writedown (expect more of that), and maybe Localworld is not there to dump assets. Schoolboy error to have 5 years with no dividend when not even loss making. Don't mind being proved wrong and good luck to those still holding.
Couldn't agree more The other nationals will rip into mirror group tomorrow and drive the price down Next week reality and common sense will become evident and we should see a bounce IMHO
Indeed - absolutely ridiculous to knock £65m off the value of the company, especially when the results this morning were upbeat and showed that the new management team are getting to grips with the task of realising the company's potential. With regard to the arrests today, it is still possible that no one will be found guilty of anything, but even if they are the company is generating loads of cash and if it has to pay a financial penalty it'll just mean a delay in clearing the debt - unfortunate but hardly a justification for knocking a fifth off the company's already very cheap valuation.
Quite clear that the board has learnt nothing from the Sly days. Panmure analyst was spot on. No asset sale, no div, no share buy-back. 4 yrs of cashflow and and still the debt holders are seen as the only lenders. Sold out taking profit as it makes no sense to stay in. Digital growth was shocking.
I think opti is talking about Investors Chronicle, the financial journal. Do they do a target price opti? Also, what are your thoughts on the dividend as they would have to make a like for like payment to the pension trustee. With their figures it is easily doable and as per one of the brokers said they could buy back shares. Only 250m in free float.
excuse my ignorance, what is IC,
Are you still solvent ?
I can remain solvent longer than the market can remain irrational. Sub 100 by this day week - you can take that to the bank.