Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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Had some at $2.78, more at $2.60 I'm seeing what your seeing Agricore but clearly the market isn't. Averaging somewhere around $2.85-$2.90 now and it's becoming a rather large percentage of PF!
Topped up today at $2.77. Insane price.
Meanwhile:
1. Backblaze reports in a week. YTD (i.e. since the last analysis in December 2022) its share price is up 17% so the value of TMT's holding is now worth $3.3m more. Barring some disasterous update (the last one and outlook was good)
2. Lyft is up 50% YTD and UBER is up 25% YTD. Why does that matter? Bolt's (TMT's largest holding) valuation is "mark to market" against these comparative holdings. Again, barring any disasterous update about Bolt the portents are on the up for an eventual IPO of Bolt.
3. The remainder of the portfolio are fleas on the back of these 2 elephants. Yet there's lots of potential for these to grow and flourish. It was very encouraging in the last update that there were a number of write downs and write offs but not that many. An equal number of uplifts too. And uplifts can be multiples of the investment whereas you can only lose 1xinvestment on a write down. That's the nature of the beast.
GLA
Today's update tells us that the portfolio change is net $3.1m (+$2m Hugo + $1.6m Muncher - $0.5m Usual Wines).
On June's NAV of $210.1m that's an uplift to $213.2m. Today's rise has taken the market cap to $93.7m.
So a discount of 56% to NAV where today the NAV has been updated to "current". Hybridian have profiled some of its new investments in climate tech. Meanwhile the peers to BOLT (Uber and Lyft) are largely the same price as 6 months ago. Backblaze is back to largely the same place as 6 months ago too. In other words the current discount to NAV is substantial - and higher than other PEs who haven't disclosed an up to date position.
Other VC/PE funds like GROW and CHRY are now beginning to recover so I think we will see a recovery here too. Historic this was at a premium to NAV. A couple of realisations above their holding price should send this on its way. I dare say we'll see an IPO of BOLT at some point in 2023, or they'll get taken out by Uber, Lyft or someone else. They are quite well established in 45 countries in growing markets in Africa, Middle East, Central America and Eastern Europe etc so an interesting play that's not dependent on the current "western world" economic cycle.
Backblaze is growing fast, and addressing a growing market (albeit lots of big companies Azure, AWS etc in this space). But lots of people like using the little guy. Backblaze seem to offer a professional and straight forward service and the key point is because this is publicly listed really one should consider it "liquid". This is $19.55m. We also know today that TMT have $10m cash.
So we therefore can calculate ex-cash and public listed items the net discount to NAV is $213.2m-$10m-$19.55m / $93.7m-$10m-$19.55m = $64.1m i.e. a 65% discount to NAV. Or assuming BOLT is fairly valued at its current $74.3m (given that there are read acrosses from Lyft and Uber) and could be liquidated at that price, then essentially each TMT share would be $0.30 of cash, and you would get a share of $109m worth of other investments worth $3.45 each.
When it's put that way today's stock price is incredibly cheap isn't it?
https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/dxgk6h46
Q3 investors call.
https://ir.backblaze.com/news-releases/news-release-details/backblaze-announces-preliminary-q3-2022-results-ahead-investor
Blze up 15.5% on positive Q3 update
Bolt is TMT's 2nd biggest holding.
Since 2020 Bolt has doubled the cities served, tripled customers to 100m
"Now, our size and the range of products we offer put us in a unique position to revolutionise how people move around the cities. By providing an alternative to private cars, we can help create cities that are greener, safer and more pleasant to live in. It’s important to stay grounded, though — rising inflation and interest rates mean we have to be disciplined when assessing how and in what markets we invest. We’ll prioritise growth efforts in our existing markets instead of expanding our services into new countries. Our culture of frugality helped us come out of the pandemic in a strong position, but the challenges will not stop, and the team is focused on preparing for and responding to them.”
https://blog.bolt.eu/en/bolt-announces-ongoing-post-pandemic-growth-to-mark-ninth-anniversary/
Some more food for thought:
https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/blze/forecast
Backblaze has a forecast 110% aggregate upside based on 3 analysts. That would add back $0.94 to the NAV.
Based on my calculation earlier today of the increase in BLZE and BOLT since 30/06/22 to today that would add to the $7.84 "real NAV as at 16/08/22" to arrive at a future NAV of $8.78. At today's close price (up 3.2% today) that's a 52.85% discount to NAV.
Another fun fact is the average premium to NAV historically was about 30%. That's because this consistently grew at about that rate per annum. If we said "fair value" was this should return to that premium then that would be $8.78 x 1.3 = $11.41/share. Today's $4.14 is at a 63.8% discount to that "fair value" level!! (i.e. a double bagger)
TMT is covered by various UK Analysts Hybridan, Cenkos and Edison all of whom provide a slightly different perspective. It is also interesting to browse their holdings which are seed funds (pre Series A fundraising) and this segment seems to be quite resilient in the current market. As Cathie Wood says: Innovation solves problems - and we have plenty of problems right now. I particularly like Backblaze (am a customer) and have browsed the websites of various holdings such as Estate Guru and I've liked what I've seen. See: https://twitter.com/TMT_PLC
I notice the Investor's Chronicle have covered TMT this evening too:
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/08/16/bargain-shares-capitalising-on-nasdaq-s-rally/
Talk about hidden value in plain sight. Today's news of a "massive" reduction needs to be put in context.
But before I do even with today's news there remains a 40% discount to NAV. I maintain this is actually larger, and here's why:
1. The NAV is as at 30/06/22. As I write on 16th August there is an uplift BLZE of $0.24. The downgrade to Bolt was made based on peer valuations of Lyft and Uber as at 30th June. Yet each of these now trades 44% and 58% above their 30th June valuations. (in other words the reduction of 28% would be reversed if we redid it today). That adds back another $0.92. That gets to $7.84 or a 47.7% discount to NAV just based on those 2 facts.
2. The Russia exposure turned out to be far smaller than originally feared. The amount was relatively small but other write downs were smaller still.
3. TMT has $13m cash adopting a conservative approach going forwards
4. Lots of positive updates from the portfolio including from Backblaze which remain also well funded.
The last solid "waypoint" was $9/share in March 22 (the FY2021 results). NAV $283m. Shares in issue 31.45m.
2022 changes:
Backblaze: -£40.76m / - $1.30 (Publicly listed shares dropped from $16.60 to $8.17)
Jan 22 Update +$37.2m / + $1.29 share (Rerate on Bolt's Jan 2022 Fundraise and other of its 50 holdings)
Ukraine/Russia -$4.6m (-$0.15) writedowns based on "potentially affected" businesses
= $8.84/share
Historic 5 year average IRR 38%
Historically traded 10-20% premium to NAV (due to its high growth)
If this average continues then that would mean a $1.68 uplift this coming week to $10.52/share
Current share price puts this at between a 55.4% and 62.5% discount to NAV ($8.84 or $10.52 vs $3.94)
This is well above any other VC fund and assumes that there's huge skeletons in the closet. The fact is its 3 biggest plays are well funded (Bolt, Backblaze and Pandadocs) and these make up about 68% of the portfolio. TMT itself has lots of cash following a fund raise last year and realisations.
Even being most pessimistic this is on a very high discount, and I think the market has overlooked the value on offer here. We will see on the H1 update. Should be released this coming week or the week after.
GLA
The huge discount to NAV is no use to anyone if there is no purchases - The Board should consider a buyback of shares from their cash pile which will provide immediate value addition to shareholder's and create some well needed liquidity
Having top sliced at $7 a couple of months ago, this is back to a $5.50 ask. My current estimate is around $8.66 adjusting for Backblaze @ $10.34 today. Bolt, Backblaze and reported cash alone add up to more than the market cap of $160m! You then get a free ride on everything else worth around $110-120m.
The discount has widened again to 36.5% - so the top slice is going back in :)
Meanwhile if TMT can grow it's NAV at 36% (as it has done the past 5 years) then this get really exciting. NAV uplifts to $11.78 which is a 53.3% discount to NAV. If the share price reverts to its historic 30% premium to NAV then that implies a stock price of $15.31. So a triple bagger in 7 months.
GLA
Great results recently showing fantastic uplift and exits in their portfolio- the shares trade at a huge discount to NAV - the board should undertake a share buyback or tender offer to close the discount
Great write ups today from Cenkos and Hybridian - but the results validate the deep value story and the forward growth potential. 47.5% YOY and 38.2% average rate of return over 5 years is impressive!
Final Results 31/12/21
· NAV per share of US$9.00 (up 47.5% from US$6.10 as of 31 December 2020)
· Total NAV of US$283.1 million (up from US$177.9 million as of 31 December 2020)
· 5-year IRR of 38.2% per annum
· US$18.5 million of net cash proceeds from exits during 2021
· US$40.5 million of investments across 31 new and existing companies in 2021
· US$19.3 million of new equity capital raised in October 2021, at US$8.50 per share
· Diversified global portfolio of over 50 companies focused mainly around big data/cloud, e-commerce, marketplaces, EdTech, FinTech, SaaS (software-as-a-service) and FoodTech solutions
· US$6.7 million of investments post year-end
· Negative effect of the military conflict in Ukraine on portfolio companies is limited (US$4.6 million of potential new write-downs currently identified), with future impact dependent on how the situation unfolds in coming months
· US$18.6 million in cash reserves as of 22 March 2021
BONKERS VALUATION
One of it's large holdings, Backblaze is trading at $1.80 below my last assessment so that reduces the NAV of TMT to around $8.75.
I topped up today sub $4.
Show me another investment trading at over 55%+ discount to NAV that can show a history of successful and profitable exits and an average 30% premium to NAV and that has a portfolio of 50 companies (a 50 trick pony perhaps?) that it shows on twitter at this address: https://twitter.com/TMT_PLC
Article continued:
This has clearly not helped sentiment towards TMT.
Furthermore, investors may have been spooked by the fact that 78 per cent of TMT’s 31.45mn shares in issue are held by a concert party of Russian investors. However, all the group’s investments are domiciled in the U.S.A. and Europe, TMT is registered in Jersey, and only four members of the 11-strong investment team are based in Moscow.
Of course, given the possibility of a Russian invasion into Ukraine, and potential for the West to impose sanctions on both the sovereign state and companies operating within the country, then there is geopolitical risk to factor in. However, the fundamentals supporting the portfolio of investee companies and the strength of TMT’s investment team are the same as they were before. What has changed is the risk premium investors embedded in the company’s shares. That premium is at a heightened level, the primary reason why TMT’s share price has pulled back from the 850¢ placing price when TMT raised $19.3mn from investors (‘Exploiting market anomalies’, 25 October 2021).
If you have been following my advice I would hold your nerve. That’s because TMT’s 33 per cent share price discount to my spot NAV estimate should narrow dramatically in the event of an easing of geopolitical tensions with Russia. That is still the default position of financial markets. Hold.
Good piece in IC lookng at value play and get all the rest of the portfolio for next to nothing with Bolt, Backblaze and cash making up most of the current low market cap. Backblaze share price has been all over the place on NASDAQ but hard to see it dropping more.
'Bargain hunting in the tech sector carnage.' By Simon Thompson, 21st February 2022.
TMT’s heightened risk premium offers value opportunity.
**Portfolio company Bolt raises $628mn in equity raise to value TMT’s stake at $103.6mn.
**Stake in cloud storage company Backblaze worth $33.6mn.
**Proforma cash of $33mn post disposal of entire shareholding in Depositphotos.
TMT Investments (TMT:560¢), a $176mn market capitalisation venture capital company with a portfolio of high-growth, internet-based companies, has reported over $40mn of portfolio valuation gains since the start of 2022.
Bolt, the international taxi and food delivery company that serves 100mn customers in 45 countries and over 400 cities across Europe and Africa, raised €628mn (£523mn) last month in a new equity finance round led by Fidelity and Sequoia that valued the fast-growing company at €7.4bn. In 2014, TMT invested $0.32mn in Bolt, a holding that is now worth $103.6mn, or 56 per cent higher than the carrying value in TMT’s last accounts. In addition, Workiz, a leading SaaS provider for the field service industry, has completed a new equity funding round that resulted in a $3mn (298 per cent) uplift in the value of TMT’s stake.
By my reckoning, and after factoring in the cash exits from delivery and transportation technology company Hugo and Depositphotos, a leading stock and video marketplace, TMT now has cash of around $33mn on its balance sheet. TMT also holds a valuable stake worth $33.6mn in Nasdaq quoted cloud storage group BackBlaze (BLZE:NMQ).
Effectively, the stakes in Bolt, Backblaze and cash on TMT’s balance sheet back up $170mn of the group’s $176mn market capitalisation which means than TMT’s portfolio of 50 plus other unquoted investments are in the price for $6mn even though they are cumulatively worth around $95mn (302¢). Clearly, this is at odds with TMT’s investment team’s enviable track record of spotting early stage technology investments and realising hefty gains on exit. In fact, my spot proforma NAV per share estimate of 841¢ is 173 per cent higher than when I included the shares, at 250¢, in my market beating 2019 Bargain Shares Portfolio. The board have paid out a special dividend of 20¢ a share, too.
Admittedly, the general de-rating of technology stocks on Nasdaq has severely dented investor sentiment. Backblaze’s stock has performed even worse than the market. Having raised $100mn at $16 a share in November’s IPO, and seen its stock price double to a closing high of $31.50 shortly thereafter, Backblaze’s shares plunged a further 29 per cent to a record low of $9.89 on 18 February 2022 after the company’s quarterly net loss widened from $3.4mn to $9.6mn. This has
Adjusting for the current market price of Backblaze ($12.75/share on 19/01/22) from my prior assessment ($24/share in October 2021) that reduces the NAV to $8.93 - I agree.
What is quite interesting at this stage is whether Backblaze is a "jam tomorrow" growth stock with no path to profitability or instead is a cash generative and which has a runway to positive Net Profit in 2022. If it's the former then it deserves to be at 12 bucks. If instead the business can maintain its trajectory where it is already highly profitable above the line, and given a year's growth then it's current price is well below a fair value based on fundamentals. The 6 analysts that track this share seems to concur that it's 50% below fair value. Backblaze's latest results are here:
https://f001.backblazeb2.com/file/backblaze-b2-collateral/Earnings-Presentation-Q3-2021.pdf
Adjusted for the latest Backblaze share price (fell 15% yesterday), I have the NAV just below $9 around $8.93 now. Am I missing something? Not counting any future contingent value from Volumetric.
A NAV uplift $1.29 drives a price rise of 65c on the market open? I couldn't help topping up :)
You absolute beauty!
This morning's announcement on the fundraising round for Bolt gives a tasty uplift of $1.29 on TMT's holding (a 56% uplift - Bolt is the 2nd largest holding). This takes the approximate NAV to $10.04 - or 26% below NAV. TMT has enjoyed years of growth and has historically been around 30% above NAV. It's therefore extremely cheap in my opinion.
up 8%
Published a positive piece on TMT today, can download the article for free when registered. https://www.aimprospector.co.uk/product/20
Also another exit in the bag today RNS! https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TMT/portfolio-update/15195100
Thanks Billgreen. Tried that and it didn't work and tried again too. Never mind. Agree with you on web. A mobile function is good but why not both. Most investors are generally 35+ too so natural predisposition to online/desktop consumption rather than mobile.
Next time try deleting and resintalling the app. That has worked for me. They keep saying they are woking on getting their website up and running but I get the impression their developers are mobile purists, which is daft as non-one can read an 89 page pdf prospectus on their iPhone.