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Greetings Jolly - long time no see. I bought in here a while ago and am awaiting lift off to take me back into blue ... Drop seemed rather overdone to me.
Glad to be of assistance. Plenty of other tips to be had!
Nice bounce over the past few trading days. I bought this as a long term hold and then topped up after last excellent trading statement so I really believe this is vastly oversold. Not effected my long term view on the performance of this company and hoping we will see SP moving up to where it should be and beyond very soon
Bought into thal last week at £2.04 after you brought it to my attention on VLK board, thankyou very much I intend to be long here.
bright move
First trade, shown as a sell :p
so far
Thanks very much El1te and Jolly...'makes perfect sense now :-) Best regards, Blue
I tend to agree with you about £2... ...& this is not a share that I'll be holding out/waiting for a Jolly Mad Bottom before doubling up.....the aligned/experienced ceo ...plus the evident LT substantial upside if Thal establishes a dominant position in an excellent growth market
The ultimate question is actually whether or not Henderson are in fact selling. - Nov 2013: Henderson acquire a lump of shares (in the 250p placing). Holding = ~16.7% - Jan 2014: Henderson holding down slightly to 15.99% - Apri 2014: Holding increased to 18% (roughly 2% in CFDs) - May 2014: Holding down to 17.73% (still 2% in CFDs) Not convinced that this does mean that are selling, rather moving their holding about. After all, why would they take part in a 250p placing and then start selling for a loss - they took up a large stake in the placing, which suggests confidence rather than a flipping of the stock at a profit. I remain convinced that ~200p is an excellent entry point, especially given the rapid re-trace of late. El1te
could not have put it better than elite... ...elite is right to caveat any particular set of results ("not a blip")...in credit terms, you'd be (or should be...perhaps the World is worse run now lol) laughed at by a credit committee if you based your lending proposal on less than 3 years' data ...there is more scope for being cavalier with the uncapped upside of equity, but still best not to get carried away... ..I sense we are all zeroing in on HGI risk / opportunity here...the joy of stampeding (daft) elephants... if you have enough dry powder to buy at the height of their frenzy ...(but again I agree with elite that barring some serious blip in execution of the business plan here, we'll be Jolly lucky to nab shares at £1.50 again)
Checking this out following el1te's article. Everything looks good from a cash and growth perspective; the only thing that's potentially going to stop me chucking some in here is, as others have mentioned, Henderson selling. 200 may be strong support, but can it hold in the face of HGI's downsizing? I would guess not, very short term.
Well done on your previous investments here - I think you would have to be very lucky for this to drop to 150p! Henderson tend to have peculiar movements in some of their larger investments (and after a good run) - sometimes they just top slice on the way up, other times they shed the lot. Have also seen them place a large amount of shares with (an)other institution(s). Personally it doesn't concern me as the recent drop has been on low volume, and THAL should definitely find support at around this level. You make a good point regarding H2 implied (assuming I've understood correctly). I also use that method somrtimes to check the run rate, albeit it's a little harder when Thalassa has a few lump contracts such as for the D-PMSS system. BlueDealer - I believe he is referring to the following. The final results bundle together the H1 and H2 results. If the H2 results are excellent, but the H1 results bad, then the overall full year results can skew perception as investors tend to just assume a broadly symmetrical performance between H1 and H2. However, we have the H1 results, so if we subtract them from the corresponding final results line, then get can fairly accurate work out the implied H2 result. If the H2 result is excellent and that is not a 'blip', then you should use those H2 results in forecasts, rather than the whole full year results. El1te
Hi Jolly, can you expand on...."2H implied"...for the uninitiated, please. Thanks and best regards, Blue
nice read Elite - thanks
yep..one of the kinda lucky b*ggers in before the leap (in but only with v modest punt of 800 shares...didn't have a mature grasp of opp lol)...sold enough @1.70 then for free carry ... I then invested again after first placement ..& played the 140-250 rise and cashed out further back to 500 shares plus cash profit plus free ride ... but on look out to load up to sensible 2-5k shares here in drift ...that took its time ...and if £2 is breached..then who knows? Folk may get nervous & I may get Jolly lucky again ....I liked yr piece...the look of the experienced aligned ceo and THAL's seemingly strong position in a growth market....just hope hgi does the decent thing and stampedes out to pastures new (as riddler suggested they might)...perhaps easier for hgi that way than an investment manager having to justify its THAL stake in downdrift? ... if you focus on full year figures, you miss something important...it is the 2h implied that most clearly shows the great execution to date... (just like for GBO now on run rate EV/FCF c10...so what cash conversion concern imv???...and TSTL @24p when I correctly nailed the stunning turnaround) ...2H implied is one of my great investing joys...esp among the tiddlers without many pesky analysts...or at least many of the good ones ...happy hunting
May be of interest - did not realise you were invested here, Jolly http://www.theel1tetrader.com/2014/05/thalassa-holdings-buoyant-journey.html El1te
bargain
..
yeah I figured the recent few holdings rns's looked strange too, up & down
I suspect HGI playing around at the margin only...the previous rns had them going above 18%
down, HGI
..still far too cheap imv... at EV/run rate EBIT less than 10 (pls check the calcs by subtracting full from interims) & with growth story firmly in play
here, hh??
yep...puzzlin' why folk selling at these levels