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In the vain hope that an opportunity in this sector coming into play has been a very rare event over the last few years
The shakers and movers talk of little else but BTR so here is the opportunity .What more do they want ?
Somebody is going to be all over it like a rash especially with some sites already in harness
11/4 fresh bidder
Other USA bidder than CBRE 9-2
Institution/ .Housing Association 6-1
Investment House 8-1
Far East Devloper/contarctor investor 10-1
Other UK developer /Contarctor12-1
sain...11/4 fresh bidder odds very mean,market pricing it in at about 33/1.
Terrace
Must explain why I have been going wrong with my punting all these years !!!!
terrace, how do you get to 33/1 for a counter-bid?
Personally I think you could reasonably argue for a fairly symmetrical distribution around a most likely case of the bid going through, with the alternatives being (A) counter-bid or (B) shareholders voting the CBRE deal down with upside shareprice expectation on A and downside shareprice expectation on B being broadly equal relative to the 350p offer. Now whether the market is valuing A and B as 25% possibilities or 1% possibilities I don't know, but it doesn't matter in the sense that fair value comes out at around the offer price.
1gw.well the sp is a tiny fraction above 350p and if anyone else is planning a higher bid they would be buying a few now at a lower sp would they not?Plus a stockbroker has told me he rates the chance of a counter bid as very,very slim.
1gw...if the 350p bid is voted down,will shareholders still trust the BOD to act in their best interests thereafter.
terrace - the fact that it is a tiny fraction above 350p can equally well be explained by the symmetrical distribution though. i.e. the chance of it crashing to 250p if shareholders reject the bid without a counter-offer might be balancing the chance of it soaring to 450p if we get an auction for the company.
In terms of the stockbroker, well I guess everyone's got an opinion and the stockbroker's may well be correct. I'm just suggesting why your assessment of the market pricing a counter-bid at 33/1 might not necessarily be correct...
Yes...I suppose only time will tell,I am not at all happy with 350p,are you?
With AW and the non exec declared as resigning there will be a change irrespective. John Fitzgerald safe in my opinion as he is the technical and operational brain. Katie Rogers probably too as she knows the figures. Not sure about anyone else after a period of dust settling in the event of a no vote.
I can say with some certainty that one shareholder with 1.4% will vote “no” unless a significantly higher bid comes in.
Am I happy with 350p?
If that gets it into play and leads to a counterbid and an auction I will be very happy!
If 350p is the winning bid then I am less happy - it does feel a very low premium given the situation.
But I see Tef in my portfolio as a bit of diversification (away from Crest) and would probably reinvest the proceeds in Crest or another housebuilder. In fact I had already unwound a partial swap out of Crest into Tef (put on after the Tef profit warning) before the offer arrived. So I wouldn't see it as being cashed out at a relatively low point, but as a bit of a windfall allowing me to get more of another housebuilder than I might have expected.
And if Tef going at 350p puts a bit of an M&A premium into Crest then that also will be welcome.
So I would be tempted to vote for the deal (or sell in the market just ahead of the vote) rather than risk a "no" vote without a counter offer.