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Gerry... I'm glad you said that you "rambled on........" why say something in 20 words when you can use 200 instead ...lol
Now all I want to know is when I'm getting my sub 10p entry price?
TF - ah ah - I rambled on for so long I ran out of space.
To finish off for the present what I was saying was it's pointless to take a bet with you as you outline the BODs reported ongoing strategy.
Rails and Civils moved on - tick
Stobart Air next on the list - hopefully
Non core assets as and when
Energy Division in the medium term probably after a minimum of at least one full year of post virus related revenue delivery.
We will continue to chat meantime I'll consider and look for trading opportunities, to collect more "free shares". You never know if news comes on Stobart Air I may be tempted to take a longer term trade - maybe with a three - six month outlook, in addition to the ones I've collected over the years.
Still think 75p a share post Stobart Air could be a very attractive t/o position. Say £470m in total, to prise away Tosca's shareholding, picking up north of £200m for the Energy Division within say 18 - 24 months. Limited bank debt atm. Non core assets say bet. £30 - £40m - less your worrying bond £50m - that's roughly net £260 -£270m for the airport. Pre covid the 25% low ball offer inducted a valuation of circa £800m
Note you didn't put forward a different view. No doubt you will lol. Btw only speculation on my part, anything could happen here. Just a bit of fun !
So is the STOB sp in the teens a punt, a value trap or an opportunity. Who knows. Considering the limited no of posts here you may say - who cares ? Lol.
Off for a very wet walk.
Gla
G
TF - I rarely look in over the weekend but it's wet and windy out there I'm likely to get slightly damp on my morning walk.
Strangely we agree on so many areas but come at things slightly differently.
Agree bonds have annual interest costs for STOB these have been included in cash flow calculations. The bond matures in May 2924, the BOD know this as did it's bankers when they increased the two RCF's to £120m so did Tosca when it added to it's holding during the June placing. As you say it's a non - current liability. I know you understand that bonds are a very useful way for Co's to raise funds, for cap ex which is exactly what STOB have done, like pretty much the majority of listed Co's.
The reason I asked you to look at other airport owners financials and debt positions was for some degree of comparison, and balance. As I've mentioned before STOB are very fortunate to have the revenues from its Energy Division, I don't believe this is the case for other airport owners. Have you seen the position at Luton - the latest £60 council loan takes the amount Luton Airport now owes the local authority to £400m. The other airports are suffering similar losses as has been reported.
These losses will need to be recovered over coming years. Short haul will recover very quickly in my view, once effective airport fast testing systems are introduced and approved. There will be pent up demand for short haul holiday breaks in the Spring after a further 5 months of lock downs. I've re booked 2 holidays this year. I aim for 3/4 a year. I'll certainly be catching up when I deem it safe. Will be looking at 5/6 holidays next year if possible.
Southend may seem to be out on a limb to you from your prospective , up north lol. However it is part of the London hub and has massive potential. I have not used the airport as I live closer to Heathrow and Gatwick but I have used Luton and Stanstead both once any only once, sorry but they were not for me.
Southend is low cost to carriers, and I suspect it will prove attractive once again once the sector can resolve present issues. All London Airports will have to assess how they are going to recoup and repair the financial costs of the virus over coming years, would you not agree it's likely that this will ultimately filter down to the future passenger's ? I'd suggest to you that comparatively speaking ( size of losses / passenger no's / financial costs / loss per passenger no's) STOB and Southend may weather this far better than other London Airports particularly as it has an additional source of revenue.
It's only a personal view, and one which you are welcome to disagree with, but I think Southend will find itself well positioned as planes start to fly again. There is no doubt it wins awards year on year for its passenger experience, it has railway station with swift access from London.
Don't understand what you are saying re Cyrus - sorry.
It would be pointless taking a bet with you w
lol TF - yep you did - intangibles now halved.
Bank debt repaid from placing funds ( soon to be utilised again )
Carlisle - a side show, as we've debated time and time again.
Dividends were paid from the sale of non core asset sales, I should know I received most of them lol Don't forget if STOB had held onto it's ESL holding rather than selling it down over the years divs would not have been paid and its value in the books would have needed a major write down. Very fortunate for STOB you could almost suggest they saw it coming lol.
Agree - the present team have tackled many of the "Tinkler" legacy issues. The sale of Stobart Air if it comes to pass will substantially de - risk the balance sheet, it will be a real positive for STOB and its ongoing cashflow, and additionally make well make it super attractive for a t/o bid - only my speculation.
Turing to corporate bonds - did you have a figure as to how many will come up to maturity for Co's across the FTSE 100 / FTSE 250 / Small cap between now and STOB's does in May 2024 ?
What was your view on my question regarding weather the owners of Heathrow / Gatwick / Luton / Stanstead have bonds outstanding ? How do you think their trading figures will look for 2020 ?
The decision by Cyrus to take FLYBE out of administration is interesting, I suspect there will be consolidation within the sector.
Make sure you tune into the Second Investor Presentation.
gla
G
Ah Ah Ah Moni - just a little pure speculation from me and why not lol.
Do you think you might read the interims RNS or listen in to the 2nd investor presentation. Emmm.
Sorry for the latest bunch of typos from me - stubby fingers and rushing to get to the gym
Keep up the good work knocking back those unbelievers over on AVCT and ORPH.
G
Gerry...what's it like in Never Never Land? I assume Peter Pan is still flying around fighting pirates. Unfortunately this fairytale is going to end up as a horror story, despite all the Fairy Dust that you're sprinkling around on here...Having said that the market never reacts rationally, so even if the results are dire, the SP will probably bounce..
Interims out 4th Nov. Interesting that the BOD is to hold a further " investor presentation" so close after the previous one.
With limited passenger flight income from Southend in the period March to August, hopefully we will be able to see the income generated from the logistics operations. Some management info on Energy performance for Sept / Oct will be helpful.
Perhaps an update on the sale of Stobart Air.
The Aviation Sector is likely to see considerable restructuring over the next 18 months. Some carriers may go to the wall, but the planes will still be there.
Look at Cyrus looking to take FLYBE out if administration, we don't have the figures yet if the deal goes through they will make interesting reading.
If Cyrus wants a carrier perhaps it might want an Airport ( only speculation Moni & TF lol ). It would probably have to pay 75p a share to prise away Tosca's holding. So say somewhere around £450 - £480 m for the whole Co. Which may become all the more attractive if Stobart Air is sold. A further plus for any potential buyer is that STOB presently has next to no debt. If you believe the RNS info rather than Moni.
Emm say £450m with the potential of a £200m windfall from the sake of the Energy Division within the next 18 - 24 months, add in the non core assets sales at £30 - £40m then knock off £50m for the bond TF
Net s out at somewhere around £260 - 270m plus for an airport worth £800m basis on the 25% stake offer prior to the pandemic. Deffo bargain territory to me lol ( but just speculation lol ).
Feel waiting for news of the disposal of Stobart And is a bit like playing chicken here. Is a buy sub 20p a punt a value trap, or an opportunity to good to miss.
Discuss lol
G
TF - will leave you to continue to fret about the bond maturing in may 2024.
Your initial concerns last year proved unfounded as I explained to you, which you kindly later acknowledged.
I guess if originally STOB had offered say 20% of the Energy Division as underlying security ( with agreement from those providing RCF s ) then it's very likely this would ever have hit your radar.
As I've suggested the majority of bonds are replaced by new bonds on maturity. If STOB actually wished to remove such a line of credit it could use the monies from the proposed sake of non. Core assets, or a small proportion of the monetized sale of the Energy Division,as at least two further options.
Atm we have Moni unable to accept that STOB has its funding in place with the business trading in line with cashflow forecasts and you with you long term focus on the bond. Both of you suggested 20p as your buy in price recently, but neither took up that option, hey ho. Lol.
Btw how many of those Co's in the FTSE100 / FTSE250 / Small Cap do you estimate have corporate bonds in place ?
How many of these mature before May 2024. Indeed how many mature before the year end ?
Whilst considering the challenges to the Aviation Sector, have you any details of bonds due to mature from the owners of London's other major airports. How do you think 2020 has hit the trading figures for the likes of Heathrow Gatwick Luton and Stanstead.
Fortunately STOB it's Energy Division as a back up. It remains my personal view that with vaccine / testing solutions short haul holiday demand will pop. Its purely my own speculation - but speculation remains the main source of comment on this bb.
Gla
G
Moni - all i do is reply to your posts. mainly when you appear mis - guided on stuff like cash burn / RCF availability.
As i said earlier - let's come back to such topics in the late Spring / early Summer, depending on how things pan out.
BTW - keep up the good work firing back at those with a "glass half full" view over on AVCT, appreciate that mate, why shouldn't Alastair upgrade his house on the back of the SP growth, after all it's a share that has been extremely kind to many of us during 2020.
I see over on ORPH that " BlahBlahDoh" can't spell your name right - it's Moni not Moany lol.
Got to admit I've very much cut back posting on bb's where I'm invested, it's all too often the case that someone will pop up with an agenda based "Doom and Gloom" view.
Seems you've had to deal with quite a lot of that on both the AVCT & ORPH bb's. I'm still holding some "Golden Tickets" on one - not on the other though.
Currently I'm holding just north of 20 long term positions, and a further 5 short term trades, to me - little said on these bb's has any material effect on the Co. concerned, they are just a platform for debate.
That said - there are a number of posters I respect where they have previously demonstrated to me that they research well and know their stuff. I do tend to follow them, it makes sense to me.
G
Gerry your last post has convinced me this is a sure fire bet with amazing prospects and tons of cash in the bank. I will definitely be buying now at sub 10p after such am amazing prospectus by you...have you considered running for the next IMF presidency?
Moni - Feel free to name one member of any "fan club" please - pretty please my friend, I'm feeling you are living in some sort of "twilight zone".
It's all in your mind lol.
Don't worry - I'm totally confident you'll never fall into any spell here "real or in your imagination".
We both know - you'll never buy here, it would stick in your throat.
Your "personal view" on cashburn / financial pressures / cash reserves, which we have debated in previous discussions over the last couple months have been proven to be - lets be kind to you "misguided" by the recent trading update RNS and the Investor Presentation.
So what do you do - you wait a couple of weeks and churn it out again lol, emmm ! ( Groundhog Day )
You can't change the facts STOB got its funding in place, it has provided cash projections, for the coming months.
Where the sp sits is one thing, to some it may look like a value trap to others an opportunity, that's down to each individual.
I suspect we will be shooting the breeze here for months and years to come.
Things up for future debate:
- the interims out next ( won't read well )
- the sale of Stobart Air ( if it comes to pass )
- Updates on the recovery of the Energy Division
- The new name for the Co.
- Any positive vaccine or testing news
- Ongoing Tier 2 Govt support if Southend moves into that category, in the coming weeks
Maybe come back and visit cashflow projections / cash burn sometime next spring or summer. But not now when STOB have pretty much all of their two RCF's totaling £120M available.
Have a great evening
G
Gerry, I'm getting concerned that your eternal optimism is luring me into buying Stob at sub 10p...I must be falling under your Stob fan club spell...
???????????????? ??????????????????, ???????????????? ??????????????
Southend Airport was formally recognised as a municipal airport in the 1930s. It has operated commercially as a municipal airport for over 85 years. Through the 1960s until the end of the 1970s, it was London’s 3rd busiest airport until Stansted took this title from it. These past operations were conducted in the knowledge that the runway length restricted the type and size of aircraft that could use Southend Airport, thereby controlling the commercial nature of what was a municipal, rather than a main hub airport. Stobart Aviation took over control of the airport operations in 2008. In 2010, the airport received planning permission to extend the runway length by 300 metres. Extending the runway length significantly changed the dynamics of the commercial operations and the size of the aircraft that could use the runway and the airport facilities.
Prior to the change in the Section 106 agreement, the airport could conduct up to 900-night flights per month. The current Section 106 licence agreement between Southend-on-Sea Borough Council and the airport operator was a significant reduction and only permits up to 120 Air Traffic Movements (ATMs) per month at night (between the hours of 23:00 and 06:30). This excludes ATMs of an emergency nature or for other unscheduled reasons, such as diverted aircraft from other airports etc.
Due to the orientation of the runway in relation to the residential conurbations of Southend and Rochford, the direct impact the airport has on those living within the operational area of the airport and the flight path, is significant and disproportionately high when compared to almost all other major and municipal airports in the UK. This factor alone should not be underestimated in any considerations. Another significant consideration is that airports and aircraft noise are exempt from general ‘noise nuisance’ legislation, meaning that it is virtually impossible to take any effective localised action against aircraft or airport noise nuisance.
The airport is a polarising subject for Southend and its residents. Whilst the commercial benefits for the local economy must be acknowledged, this has to be in viewed in context and in contrast to the negative impacts its operations have on the environment and on residents who live under the flight path. Economic benefits alone should not be the overarching or single-minded consideration when evaluating the airport and its benefits and impacts on residents. Those that are not directly affected by the ground operations or the aircraft flight path and noise generally are supportive of the airport and its expansion plans. Those directly affected by the aforementioned, generally have a very different and opposing view.
The current CEO of Southend Airport was responsible for the rapid and significant expansion of Luton airport, taking it from under 2 million passengers annually to over 16 million pas
Moni - it is what it is - as with many businesses atm.
I've no real skin in the game here all my shares have come from top sliced profits on many trades as you know.
I dont place any value on my STOB shares they cost me nothing I've merely collected them through trading.
I've no agenda and generally only post in response to you TF and a couple of others.
Again it strikes me that you actually have some strange belief that our debates on here have any influence on one the sp and secondly the decisions of others.
Surely nobody would buy or sell on the views of any posts on a bb especially where there is an agenda in play.
All views are welcomed, on which debates can be held
This bb is a bit of fun, there are probably less than 20 people who have posted here in the last few months.
I think I said this morning I agreed with nige that it would be a punt. I also said it's a recovery play. Much as depends on virus solutions for the aviation sector I don't believe anyone could see it differently.
These are all areas I have covered with you before on many occasions and I suspect I'll do so again and again in reply to anticipated future posts from you my good friend.
I hold I belief that in the next 2 / 3 / 4 years planes will be flying again and that it won't be beyond the wit of man to resolve the issues caused by this current virus. In the meantime STOB continues to follow through on its corporate plans. The funding is in place. The Energy Division is moving forward again.
I have no knowledge of how many carriers may fail if the situation is prolonged. But the planes don't disapear. They will he picked up by other carriers probably on the cheap or in the case of Flybe ways will be found to restructure businesses.
I fear that week on week month on month, I'll be responding to your gleeful posts, no sure how our little chats on here will ever help you deal with your FLYB investment that is truly down to you to deal with in whatever way works for you. I genuinely hope you can find some closure though.
May all your future investment decisions work out well for you my friend.
G
Gerry...I'm not sure who you are trying to convince that this is a good investment but you sure are working at it! How many have you dragged into this car crash? If you keep peddling your optimism then I suppose you and others will actually start believing it..
TF - I recall your concerns around the Bond some 12 months ago when we must have posted dozens of times to each other over it following the challenges incurred by ESL. You will recall your concerns at that time proved unfounded, as I said they would prove to be. This was confirmed by RNS.
Yes May 2024 will eventually come to pass, at that time the bond may well be restructured, that's often what comes to pass - is it not ?
The majority of this future debt / liability is covered by non core assets, and at this point in time it's really is a side play, I terms of issues here, at present.
Interesting news you gave on the unit at Carlisle, you are closer to the ground up there - do you have any more info ?
I'd rather STOB kept the Energy Division but it may well be that picking up north of £200m for it will be too attractive to turn down.
We both know there are many aspects to consider when attempting to value a Co. But looking at it from a NAV prospective, a case could be made to say that considering the present sp the market is only attaching a moninal valuation on Southend perhaps not as low as £1 lol.
That said just before the virus hit, based on the 25% potential buy in offer, a valuation of £800m was not unreasonable.
Therein potentially sits the upside here. Would you not agree ?
STOB deffo sits in recovery play territory. That's part of the fun here how it will pan out is up for reasoned debate.
BTW I've mothballed my bike for the winter, ( southern softy - I know ). Will be on the exercise bike in the garage until March 2020.
Gla
G
Moni - we've done the fan club thing, there were no takers, remember, no I guess not.
This bb has a few investors that post info and news on STOB. That's generally how it works. In addition there are a few non invested glass half empty posts, which are useful for balance.
Again as is your want, why not roll out one of your strange theories lol. If it helps you then no prob.
There have been legacy issues here most created by your "friend" and "fellow investor" in FLYB none other than the cabinet maker Tinkler. The present BOD have gradually worked through these issues, he was kicked out lost his court case cause major disruption. Then joined you in piling stacks of cash into FLYB, you both lost big time.
Perhaps if you'd read the RNS over there you wouldn't have lost your shirt ! I'm guessing he's sucked it up and moved on. Not sure you will ever find a way through to some level of acceptance - it's coming up to two years since your huge "punt" on FLYB. I know you struggle to accept your error in judgement over there and need to aportion blame. But surely two years on its time for you to let go my friend.
Both Branson and Cyrus, are beyond your reach, so you focus your attention on STOB You seem to revel in the challenges that STOB is steadfastly working it way through at present. I've never understood how this helps you. Whatever the future ho!ds for STOB, nothing that happens here will recover the money you lost. Don't get me wrong I do sympathise it was quite a considerable loss you incurred. My worry is that week after week probably for year after year, I'll look in here and one of your posts will pop up. May I ask Moni, if STOB didn't recover, and this bb wasn't available to you any more, how would it actually help you ? Truly my friend your road to some form of closure from your FLYB loss has to come from within. I genuinely hope you manage to find a way to some level of inner peace.
Nige posted yesterday that he felt STOB is a punt which may well be a fair assessment. The positives here are the amount of cash the present BOD raised, and the structured plan introduced for the next 18 - 24 months.
G
Gerry- I'm not guided by RNSs or management updates when it comes to tracking the demise of Stob..I'm guided by the market's opinion that is reflected in the current SP. Unfortunately you and many of your adoring fan club, that listened to the BOD's (more than one) have all been financially shafted. Obviously Covid 19 was unforeseen, but the car crash was already in motion long before our Chinese friends decided to share their new virus with us all...(What are friends for I ask). Good luck anyway and we'll catch up again soon...10p.? Aimho Adyor!
Nige / Birddog - I like the the Energy Division, which should return to previous revenue levels for 2021 onwards. With most set up costs completed and now in place following the previous years of capex requirements and with huge barriers to entry, there should be a decent bottom line contribution, in the next Financial year.
I'd prefer that STOB retained this division, though the BOD deffo wants to monetize it. Still lets see how it pans out. It's still what 18 - 24 months away, and they'll want at least a full year of decent revenues here before putting it up for sale.
Southend is the long term play, again - here previous capex has impacted on the bottom line - though the spend, on the airport was necessary to get it to where it is now. Birddog, fairly sure you were thoughtful as to where the future break even for the airport was in terms of passenger no's. I believe it was recently quoted at 2.5m pa.
We are where we are - STOB will produce pretty grim half Yr. figures in mid November - ( Mch - Aug ), some with a glass half empty here will no doubt play on these, though it's pointless as those following STOB closely already understand from recent RNS and the Investor Presentation the position.
We still have the US election in a couple of weeks, and the ongoing "lock down"debates here in the UK, so more fun to come. News on Stobart Air would be handy, and any positive vaccine news or an effective "rolled out" airport test system - Govt. backed would be a positive.
Though PI's have been trading shares in small volumes since the June placing, the Institutional Investors have held firm.
KIV - a substantial % of STOB shares and held tightly by the Institutional Investors, which I'd suggest is the reason STOB pops upwards on positive news.
gla
G
Moni - we agree on Pharma stocks, though when things kicked off earlier in the year you seemed to be a little wedded to ORPH.
Pretty sure you got into a bit of a debate with NCYT holders, early doors, seem to remember you stated NCYT was a "one trick pony" and that ORPH was "your play" Didn't you throw out one of your predictions for ORPH - £2 wasn't it ?
I have to say I spread my bets with AVCT / NCYT early doors, though I traded them both several times pocketing profits, I also dabbled with SNG / BVC / SAR, ( thx to Volcano for the BVC entry, as it wasn't on my radar at the time ).
I've still got my top slice chunk in BVC, and some still in AVCT and NCYT, though I ploughed quite a bit of my Pharma profits into cheap FTSE 100 opportunities at the time.
Think I've seen you posting on other pharma bb's, more recently, so I'm hoping you didn't get side tracked into a pure ORPH play, though its done ok. Hope you didn't miss out on some of the others - sure you didn't my good friend.
Again I'm sure you picked up on the early doors opportunities in Goldie's - mine were TSG / AAZ / HGM - though I got out of AAZ ( not at the top of the rise in Aug ).
There were great some tech plays, again my thx to Volcano for highlighting SPT . TF very much likes SCE, which has done very well for him and other investors. It's all good is it not.
G
Hi Moni - good to hear from you again. ( more thoughts form you on STOB's cash reserves - I see )
We chatted a little while back and I asked you to predict the cash and RCF available to STOB at the half year end ( 31st Aug ).
Regrettably you wouldn't play lol - So as you'll know I predicted £121 M ( £1m cash and the two RCF's totalling £120M ).
Guess what I was out by £2M !!- as confirmed by the 1/10/20 trading update - £119M.
How did i get so close, you must wonder, despite your previous worries re cash burn , which I dealt with as and when you threw them into the ring with "regular gay abandon", as is your want.
Let me remind you - I read the 4th June RNS, which I highlighted to you several times.
So considering you don't read or won't accept RNS's from STOB - I doubt you'll have read the 1/10 20 trading update, nor I'll assume did you sign on to listen in to the "Investor Presentation" on the 2nd Oct.
Much better for your strategy, here, my good friend is to let things lie for a couple of weeks then and roll out your "cash reserve" concerns once again - emmmm !
Perhaps if there are no solutions to Aviation, at all in 2021 or 2022, it might be that STOB would need to use some of the expected cash from the proposed sale of the Energy Division, to tie it over into 2023, buy we'll have to see.
gla
G
You really are modesty personified
Birddog............ "I don't understand why STOB don't focus on the energy division and bin off the Aviation. The airport and airline sector is years away from recovering back to 2019 levels. Even then, the 2019 financials for STOB were dire anyway so why pursue something with that level of loss and cash burn that will inevitably pull the whole thing down."
IMHO, Southend airport is the jewel in the crown. This is STOB's best asset, without that I wouldn't be invested. Yes I grant you, it could be a long haul from here. A vaccine will be the begging of the end of this dreadful virus, this will be the start to a recovery for STOB. I say keep Southend airport at all cost's. The energy business should help STOB get through this period. JMO.
Even if there is an upturn in the airline industry, it won't happen any time soon as we have a long winter season ahead. With airlines pulling out of Southend altogether anyway, its' likely the main London Airports will take up any extra flights before they consider Southend. I don't understand why STOB don't focus on the energy division and bin off the Aviation. The airport and airline sector is years away from recovering back to 2019 levels. Even then, the 2019 financials for STOB were dire anyway so why pursue something with that level of loss and cash burn that will inevitably pull the whole thing down.
I also very much doubt that the share price will double within 2 months. Maybe if we get some good news regarding a vaccine for this dreadful virus it could happen. The share price is beaten up, so a lot of upside potential from here.