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Who he dares
20.25 GBX +1.49 (7.94%)
4 Nov, 08:48 GMT · Disclaimer
The markets could finish in the blue today . FTSE 100 just turnaround 80 points, you got to be quick though.
Hi TF - To me the original buy in to Connect made sense at the time as part of the deal involved STOB dropping Stobart Air into Connect helping to de risk the STOB balance sheet at that time.
Regrettably on the demise of FLYB Stobart Air returned like a rubber ball ( a £55m rubber ball + associated lease liabilities ).
It's sale to me remains key, think you said dump it for a £1 if possible a little while back lol.
The tender process adds more uncertainty, but a decision will be made by the end of the year I believe.
The actual figures for Much - Aug were a little better than I expected, based on info already provided by the BOD.
Yep the BOD indicate headroom facilities of circa £47m by Feb 2022. Noted the two potential covenant breaches, and the RCF renewal challenges by Jan 2022.
The BOD needs to ensure that the disposal of the £40m non core assets don't become a fire sale.
Shall tune into the Investor Presentation later.
All good here then - I'm "all in" - perhaps not lol !!
G
Cant believe the interim results so poor disappointing management need a shake up imo
TF do you have access to Argus Vickers report? are you able to see that for odx? a desperate mate has asked me to see if anyone has access to it. He can't work out why the sp has been dropping.
Does anyone know what the market expectations are for STOB results tomorrow? Thanks in advance.
Hi Volcano - looks like the markets are factoring in a blue wave:
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/forex-dollar-dips-as-investors-bet-on-biden-victory-vsx7a7a9ll85dcv.html
No money today for a "Lame Duck" President. I suspect the Democrats will hold the House of Representatives. The Senate is still up for grabs with the 35 seats up for election / re election.
I feel a Biden clean sweep will be the best outcome for both Democrats and Republicans over the medium to long term.
Looks like there is no money today for a new President, working with a minority in the Senate. Nor for a disputed result.
I'd be closing day trades this afternoon, to be safe, but I always look to reduce risk where I can.
We could easily see the FTSE hit both 6000 & 5000 between now and the Spring, its great fun for trading.
Think the EU / UK are both dragging their heels awaiting the US result. If we have a full on Blue Wave I'll watch with interest as Doris looks to secure a trade deal with the US. What we do know is that whatever it looks like a deal with the US will be "World Beating" lol emmm !
Am going to watch as much of the US election as possible this evening - then straight into STOB's half year figures, which should be grim ( Mch - Aug ). Hopefully info on Sept - Oct Energy Division performance, and actual figures for Logistics income from Southend. Then straight into the 9.30 Investor Presentation.
gla
G
Hi Gerry,
FTSE 100 - 5500 didn't last and i can see 6000 this week.
CARR - that was a good trading share for me in 17 / 18 / 19 - looked to buy in when it fell into the low 1.30's, usually it picked up quickly and gave a nice return.
G
well done on the top up at HZM. I should have added too.
with lock down 2 coming up, best to hold on to cash it there will be some very cheap shares. CHAT is going very well and I've added. Good long term prospects. Last lock down , Halfords did very well but not doing well today. Have you looked at anything else interesting ?
Hi Moni - it's not ideal for the travel industry overall. I've just finished reading the ABF rns this morning with projections for lost revenues during the latest lockdown. Non essential high street based retail looks like it's going to take another hit, alongside several other sectors.
Within the travel sector I do see consolidation coming during 2021 - 2022. Think I posted previously that the planes will still be there as will the airports throughout the world, as we emerge from the Pandemic, whenever that is. It's possibly more a question of who will ultimately own the businesses.
Strangely the extension of the furlough scheme should actually help STOB, there were pretty much no passenger flights out of Southend planned for November, so the continued Govt funding of staffing costs is a useful bonus.
To continue to receive the furlough support during the low volume winter period is a bonus. It wouldn't surprise me to see further Lockdowns between now and March. If furlough schemes are continued in line with Lockdowns that will help STOB seems to me it could be better off being under full lockdown with furlough support, as there is unlikely to be any real passenger revenue over the coming 3/4 months.
Should be an interesting week, am planning on staying up to watch the US election, then straight into STOB's half year figures on Wednesday morning.
Gla
G
Gerry, is this yet another nail in the travel industries coffin? UK lockdown no. 2 holiday travel ban.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54768693
SLA is doing ok today and i will be following TATE next week ,it is under £6 for now.
Gerry i have to confess i am not brave but i am steady eddy though, lol .
Tate & Lyle PLC Half Year Results, Thursday 5 November
i have traded it since you have mentioned it last time and i will this time as well.
I got my eye on TATE again - its a regular place to go for me sub £6.20. Also watching SMDS - anything around £2.70 - £2.75, and SN. I like down at these levels, for the longer term, together with LGEN at sub £1.80.
To be honest there are dozens of attractive looking positions,but will they look even more attractive after the weekend, we'll have to see.
It's only a few trading days until the US Election if the result is disputed or is too close to call, or even perhaps if the GOP loses the Senate., any uncertainty could offer up some opportunities. Will have to wait and see, I don't want to see any short term recovery tomorrow though.
I still think its best to take profits off the table with shares like NCYT, when trading it earlier in the year, and it broke £2 then £5 those were both represented excellent returns. Yep it's doubled again, but I would suspect that most traders have been in and out taking profits and going again. Only the brave will have held throughout its rise, but if they did then well done them.
G
I don't trade every day but yesterday traded OCDO and today LLOY and back to cash now.
My long term holdings are getting attractive to trade again likes of LGEN and SLA and more.
I have traded many companies involved with COVID but never held one long term and now i am
thinking maybe just maybe i should have held on to 20000 NCYT shares .Maybe next time lol.
Hi Volcano - it wouldn't surprise me. Those that traded the run up from March 23rd maybe through to mid August, should have done pretty well.
I've got cash ready for next week and beyond. Any non conclusive outcome for the White House next week should or could produce uncertainty. Hopefully good for trading.
Depending on how Doris and his team handle the next stage of the pandemic further opportunities could present themselves over coming months.
G
I see Heathrow posted a £1.5 Bn loss for the first 9 months of the year, that was a bit of an "ouchy". Feel Southend could well find itself well placed to offer a low cost / high quality service. I believe short haul holidays flights will come back in board more quickly than long haul.
G
Morning Gerry,
Looks like Your prediction of FTSE100 to test 5500 might be right '
UK markets
UKX
5,603.73
FTSE 100 Index
-125.26 (2.19%)
MCX
17,288.59
FTSE 250 Index
-299.12 (1.70%)
ASX
3,167.70
FTSE All-Share Index
-66.29 (2.05%)
SMX
5,197.00
FTSE SmallCap Index
-36.32 (0.69%)
AXX
965.13
FTSE AIM All-Share Index
-7.40
Morning TF yep that looks like the plan though not sure there are any other options.
Think it may be a case of hunkering down today, looking like a red one. I still feel we may see the FTSE drop back down to the 5000 level over coming weeks and months.
Am wondering why STOB decided to release their half year figures right next to the US election results.
Looks like the Democrats will hold the house of representatives, The Senate really does look up for grabs, think of the 35 seats up on the 6 year rolling review 23 are republicans.
Be gridlock if Trump survives and the Democrats control both houses. Similarly if Biden gets in and the Gop hold the Senate more gridlock. Feel maybe a Democrat clean sweep will be best for the US, strangely it may also be best for the Gop, in the long run too.
As I see it most outcomes will make it very difficult for Doris to get his US deal. Surely he could have seen this coming !
I remember a great speech by Ken Clarke in the Commons right in the middle of the Brexit debate when he spoke on the back of his years of experience, about the difficulty of securing trade deals with the US. - 50 states, a President 2 houses and varies lobby's to contend with and satisfy - Should be fun to watch it pan out lol.
G
STOB needs to focus on maintaining firm cash control. With the Energy Division gradually returning to 2019 - 2020 revenues, strong cash generation will resumed for 2021 - 2022. ( I'm parking 2020 ), Providing limited capex is required as the business has matured this will filter through to the bottom line.
At Southend we have been provided with the monthly cash burn with nil passenger flights, the interims will hopefully show logistics income.
Should STOB manage to lose Stobart Air, then it may well be able sit and wait for a resolution of the virus issues ,for some considerable time, figures out next week may clarify to position.
What ever happens the Airport and planes will be there - its just a case of who in the longer term will own them.
I've been taking a look at the position at some of the other 5 "London Airports", if 2021 was a write of I'd not want to be living under Luton Borough Council, what a disaster that is turning out to be. At Stansted, the owners MAG have the triple whammy owning MAN, EMA & STN. London City Airport has had to park its investment programme. The losses at Heathrow and Gatwick are eye watering.
Hey it's not looking half so bad at Southend in comparison.
Whilst having every sympathy for those losing jobs, it will be interesting to see how the Sector comes through this over the coming months and years. I suspect present losses and holes in balance sheets, both for Airports and carriers will ultimately filter through to passengers, in terms of higher pricing longer term.
Gla
G
The author of that piece is wrong, SEN did not re-brand as London Southend Airport in 2012, but rather at the end of 1993, when the company was founded by Regional Airports Ltd, after having been taken over from Council municipal operation.
The CAA has counted Southend as a London airport since the 1950's.
TF Re London, It's not just a 'PR consultancy' opinion. Britains Civil Aviation Authority lists Southend as a London airport, and so do IATA.
The distance and train journey time is not too different to Stansted airport.
Also it is accepted fairly generally that the centre of London, if you like the economic locu, has and continues to shift eastwards.
Grain of truth in your other points.
Don't buy Orph it's too risky imho...
TF - Yep TOSCA topped up in June - but they also picked up a major holding at the beginning of the year before the pandemic hit the sector.
You may have a point regarding regional airports - Fortunately Southend is one of the London 6 Hub airports, if it's not maybe it won the 2019 award under false pretences ! - Copied the Which award details below for you and it deffo says "Best London Airport"
https://southendairport.com/news/ranked-best-airport-2019
Guess we'll have to wait to find out what Southend is worth, time will tell.
In the meantime STOB needs to maintain a weather eye on cashflow, uplift the Energy Division revenues, lose Stobart Air, and sit out the virus, like all other airports.
Do you not agree it's worth looking at the position at the other London Airports, for some comparison. Wouldn't want to be living within the Luton Borough Council, area, which has now lent Luton Airport over £400m and has lost the income, it normally receives from Luton Airport to balance it's spending requirements , also more Council loans to come there I believe. Bet they wish it had an Energy Division to fall back on - emmmm :
https://www.lutontoday.co.uk/news/politics/councils-ps60m-loan-luton-airport-company-approved-private-executive-committee-2974406
Did the council not say when it lent the last tranch of £60M that without this additional funding, LLAL could become insolvent and cease trading, council could then lose control of the airport, and the benefit of the income it generates altogether. Good grief !
So with the June placing STOB has cleared all Bank debt for the time being and reduced it's overdraft interest coss for the time being, in addition "M=medium to long term" Bond £50m funding interest costs are factored into cash flow projections.
Will happily present the position at other airports for comparison if required. My point is that the financial holes created by the virus issues in competitor London Airports, will have to be resolved and recovered, over coming years - in my view this will filter down to ultimately to customers.
G
Hi Moni - ( agreed - never use a sentence when a paragraph will do lol ).
Sorry mate - the STOB sp will likely move around a bit but i doubt anyone who has read your posts on this bb will ever believe you'll own STOB shares, we know / you know it'll never happen. Other may take opportunities when offered up - think I sit in that group.
What's the "crack" over on ORPH today - who are those "pesky" de rampers that you wish to starve of oxygen !
They are prob traders who having made a turn on the recent tick up, are looking to talk it down again, to get a re entry point, having sold out recently when it approached 30p.
I was going to pop over and lend you a hand with some thoughts and wisdom - not sure I'd be very helpful though lol.
Did you retain all your HVO shares on the t/o back in January ? Think you said you bought in at 24p again this month. So short term will we see 30p or 20p over there ?
G