Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I hope you are right Gib,. I agree with a lot of what you are saying in terms of who and what PALA are and invested on the back of them getting involved ultimately. I dont profess to be particularly knowledgeable on this situation, however, I have been in this since the TRX Days also and bought at 10p, and saw this all the way to 84p also, buying more in the 20s, 30s, 50s and 60s. I have nothing like you're holding but hold a significant amount. Don't forget that Rutile prices were 30% or so higher in 2013/2014 which supported the 84p. I always like reading your posts and theories btw ! However, not sure why PALA have reduced their percentage recently though ? And why they didn't make more of an effort to to buy more at 15 and 17p. I am in to the bitter end, to use your phrase, and hope that we enjoy both a price rise to previous price levels sometime soon and that there is significant interest in the company by anyone who wants to pay £1+ 9
I hope you are right Gib,. I agree with a lot of what you are saying in terms of who and what PALA are and invested on the back of them getting involved ultimately. I dont profess to be particularly knowledgeable on this situation, however, I have been in this since the TRX Days also and bought at 10p, and saw this all the way to 84p also, buying more in the 20s, 30s, 50s and 60s. I have nothing like you're holding but hold a significant amount. Don't forget that Rutile prices were 30% or so higher in 2013/2014 which supported the 84p. I always like reading your posts and theories btw ! However, not sure why PALA have reduced their percentage recently though ? And why they didn't make more of an effort to to buy more at 15 and 17p. I am in to the bitter end, to use your phrase, and hope that we enjoy both a price rise to previous price levels sometime soon and that there is significant interest in the company by anyone who wants to pay £1+ 9
Those of us, Corbs, and a merry few who have been in this since TRX days have seen some significant ups and downs. I hold circa 1% of the stock and have seen a lot of irrational behaviour from a low of 6p albeit I held less in those days to a high of 84p. What historically drove the SP was product price and a hardening of the rutile prices again will be the key factor that I am sure will to some degree drive slightly irrational SP increases. I have no doubt that we could see the SP hit 84p again in short order and the credentials of the business are much stronger now in terms of production and unit costs than they were the last time this price point was hit. I think the big issue is what next. Be under no illusions Pala are not in this stock for income neither are the II's. They are in it for total return and a bit of a dividend at some point in the future is not the reason for their investment decision. Pala are the real key here. They are in effect a VC who work with miners. They are turnaround experts who look to exit on the back of taking a dog and turning it into an efficient business which has happened with SRX. There are only two potential strategies that Pala will follow; firstly they will have another go at an all share bid tidy the business up further and then list it on a reputable exchange such as the FTSE 250. The alternative is a trade sale possibly to the Chinese which fulfils their basic strategy which is buy build and sell for a total return so they can move on to the next project. As for price I think 60p is way off the mark. The resource lifecycle alone is worth considerably more. Pala will be looking for an annualised return of circa 18-22% per annum bare in mind their last all share bid was around the current price of 30P. A realistic trade sale price will be north of £1, Pala know the value of the asset better than anyone but I am sure they are pushing the business to potential purchasers. Don't forget circa 2% of the stock was sold last week, somebody spent circa £3M plus on a position that was a new investor. I struggle to form a view that this would be a private investor so let us hope this a potential bidder taking the initial steps.
Feeling good about this again now, intriguing situation developing... It seems we finally have both situations going on, significant increased revenues through increased production, lower costs and hardening prices which will significantly increase the share price anyway. This complimenting the speculation on selling the business for maximum value. Don't understand why Pala will want to to make an offer to buy the whole business. By my maths that would cost them best part of £180 million anything like 60p. Then what would they do with it ? Also, from what I can work out, since 2105 year end accounts to now, Pala have reduced their share holding by 3% from 56% To 53%. Also, Neon Liberty have also reduced theirs from 6.7% to 5.8% whilst JP Morgan and M&Gs percentage remains unchanged. We know legal and general are now onboard I think with 3% or so. Good to know we have these ii on board as they too will be waiting for payday. Would be interested in views as ever. 9
Beaufort Securities have produced a note which is extremely good; reiterates its target price of 40 pence. It highlights that recent Iluka statement that rutile prices are hardening. Like Gibraltar 1 I see a bid coming. Unlike Gibraltar 1 who sees it coming from Pala, I see it coming from a third party. There is a further alternative that the company will be able in my view to declare a dividend in 2017.
Nicely put. Up for sale. But where did those shares go to last Friday and subsequently and where from? They have not gone to or from Pala for other wise there should have been an announcement. under the rules.
looks like as if the bride makes herself pretty for the future groom
In my view excellent; upper end of projected production and demand for product present. The shares deserve a re-rate in any event even though there may be no corporate activity which I believe that there is.
What I have been looking for are tow things. First Q2's figures. The company has normally been reliable in releasing those on or about 7 or 8th July. Today is the 13th and nothing so far. Secondly I have been following your hunch and expecting an RNS confirming that Pala have upped their stake and gone through either a 1% or 2% increase in their holding. Nothing in that direction. I therefore wonder whether the two large Friday trades have gone from one or two iis who took part in the recent placing which did not need to be reported because that or those iis did not have 3% to start with (you will recall that there were no announcements from a new ii following the recent placing) to a predator who is still below 3% and therefore does not need to declare his/her/its hand. Or someone is not playing in accordance with the rules. Either way this feels as if SRX is in play as you say.
All, Corbs and one or two of us have been here before. This is the third time, the trend is a sudden and unexplained increase in trades followed by an all share bid from Pala. Tomorrow Rule 26 update is due on the big buys from Friday all will be revealed! something is brewing.
I spoke to Michael Barton at last year's agm. The partner for the hydra project could not put in the money; I think therefore dropped. M Barton stood down subsequently as chairman. I did not go to this year's agm. I think that Gib is right in that something is bubbling be it Pala winding up to make an offer or a third party is due to. For srx 91ks worth of buys this afternoon is a lot; after some pis sold this morning. I guess quite a few long termers lost patience and saw an exit with this morning's rise. Nice to hear from you and do what the medics tell you to. I have an interest in BKY (uranium mine in Spain) and DJI which I think is a fascinating company. I compare it to Paysafe (formerly Neteller) in which I had stock in mid 2000s
Hi-checking in- lots happening behind the scenes eh? how time flies. thanks for good wishes, spent the past month sleeping in chair, appears more comfortable than the bed. (nature of copd) would be good to see some more figures released continously re ganga over coming 6 months as she beds down-glitches etc (to be expected) optimisations etc. retaining confidence in our world class asset, thats moved on from 2009 as one put us as a one trick poney the dreaded dredge (did we even find out which indians tried taking the parts for salvage?) and the security issues surrounding that?. for those that sat back for years watching txr/srx maybe nows the time they came off the fence with ganga etc being ramped up-future figures and going to look extremely good if all goes well. Dara/Gib etc any news on the hydro parts? or further news on the keiser and the green gold agri bus, can u sitrep me please?many thanks Corbs:-) ps there was a link over on kenmare from past week re prices and firming up (partially useful) black rod-good to see u still posting-albeit blue moon :-) and it wasnt my trades in case u ask gib
Either way, the market is firm in SRX this morning. I really do hope that patience will be rewarded. Wager on!!
This is not Pala selling, it is a concerted effort by someone to buy a significant stake, and I would suggest this is probably Pala. Lets wait for the RNS but expect another busy buy day on Monday i think someone is making a move and that can only be Pala. A small wager says another all share offer from Pala during next week in he range of 64p-84p we have been here before!
One of the large trades was of 6,557,786; the other was of 5,870,000 1% of the share capital amounts to 5,957,900 shares. If Pala shed the higher amount then that is more than 1% of the capital and therefore reportable to the market. The two together would amount to 2%. If the buyer or seller was say another ii then the first of the trades is reportable to the market I consider that we will get an announcement.
Not me I'm still all in! Fingers crossed it's hang on to your hats time!?
Good to hear from you. How are you holding up? OK? May be at last eh?
ganga traction factor :-))))
Huge trades indeed. Bought in earlier. The SP has been largely stationary for weeks. Time for a big move :D
Watching with a big smile, 12.1% as well. Here comes the buy out or dividend!!
I do not know if anyone is following today's SRX trades Over 13 million shares have been traded so far. Gibraltar/Ricky??
It is the second quarters figures that I await; we may get an inkling as how Gangama is performing and may be a comment about sales prices other than the contracted product. Brexit is imo irrelevant to our investment in SRL. Indeed most mining stocks have moved ahead. As either you or Ricky or ANOther (forgive me) has commented our trade is in dollars and so any profit will on conversion benefit.
A replay is expected. Do not expect to return from Africa specially to vote.
I have a sneaky suspicion albeit I maybe proved wrong that the AGM maybe the trigger this week. They have their ducks in place, costs are reduced, II's have more shares (as reward for forbearance) production costs at an all time low, what else can they do?? They sell in dollars so profits will have increased by circa 9% as a result. The only thing now missing is a investor value so what are they going to do?? They must deliver on this one remaining aspect! lets see what happens. Frustrated yes but in for the long haul.
Gib - I sense you are as frustrated as me (I hold around 600k) and at 85p I could have sold and bought back over 2 mill. But having had 3 years of frustration I'm not selling as we draw near a conclusion. I can see these going back to 85p and beyond over the coming months (maybe 12 months max)