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Evening Chris.
Still think of the 6p party in Vegas.
That's £1.20 a share.
Tje board did almost promise mid cap status within three years.
One year already gone.
Looking at mid cap valuations most are £500 million plus
So about 80p assuming no more dilution
80p by 31.12.2022.
Anything is possible here although nothing much ever happens.
£20 mill mcap (Over 3 times current price) for solo on sale of Ruvuma would still be extremely cheap for the asset post Aminex deal and $140 million funded to production.
Good news would be a first.
I had high hopes for this years ago but all they have done is take take take with nothing given back.
Disappointed putting it mildly
We could certainly do with some good news here.
With news should at least go to pre aborted deal sp if not higher Imo.
Fingers crossed it hints at good news for us.
Aminex rns out.
Only price monitoring but very rare for them.
Good news coming?
Seems to be some trading over there since 2pm
I would think nr`s valuation circa $100 million would be a lot nearer to the true value.
Even that figure is on the low side given the amount of potential gas in place.
Seriously, £3 million is your valuation on 25% of 763 BCF 2C and 2 TCF GIIP with FO completion and $140 million of investment for the asset agreed and on the table?
Don't think I will be hopping over to ZEN then!
Good post on BIG brother board by grsshaw
Not posted for a while as was taking a break from the day to day market stuff - hope all are well and not struggling too much with this situation!
For what its worth, I feel the farm out WILL be completed before the end of this month. This situation highlights they are not quick to sign off as we all know, but didn't RA mention they don't want to rush this and are going through the paperwork in great detail? it might have something also to do with the size of the project and if the energy minister needs his gaffer Dr John Magufuli to sign off first looking out for and highlighting the WIN WIN deal to his people!
ARA have (not AEX) confirmed they will not extend again and I feel this is just the last push that is needed to close the deal with some weight and leverage. It's just part of negotiating process and to try and keep to the drilling timelines which according the RA interview a lot of work has taken place in preparation for this. It has taken so long which is very frustrating for all and I feel this is mainly because they didn't need any gas due to an unusual heavy rain season (both Wen and Orca mentioned this in their last reports to reason for the slight volume reductions YOY)
I can see no reason the FO will not go ahead and I have not sold one share to reduce my exposure because of the RNS as I felt it didn't warrant any action. In fact I am happy they have played this card so all parties can finally move on after all the delays. I am sure there was many investors saying they need to do something as this keep being pushed along. Probably should have done this much sooner like one month after the tax payments! In fact they shouldn't have paid any monies before the signature anyway but doesn't this highlight the trust involved here?
The one thing I know if this is only my opinion but I do have a considerable stake in AEX so backed up with some skin in this what seems like a poker game right now!
AEX has been very supported, extremely patience with the delays, agreed and paid monies on a tax they didn't really agree with, and even borrowed money in order to pay the tax and support the delays, and more importantly ARA have fully supported also and set up a local office (even when the energy market crashed). With $140m development cash on the table with no risk why would the gov want this to fail at this very late stage - just doesn't make any sense to me
My guess is this will be at least 1.65p by the end of this month. If I am right, and of course I might be wrong, I would love to see what happens to the share price and if all investors who sold start panic buying in again. Plus we have risk off investors waiting on the sidelines who may want in
IMHO - please do you own research
GOOD LUCK ALL
Makes no diff who the BOD is, nothing happening till Ruvuma FO and asset carved up between the players.
(More accurate and less dramatic heading)
Steve, I agree that the only thing that matters is what they can achieve here, but I think that their past performance provides a very good guide to what they are likely to do. Leopards don't change their spots, which is why insurance companies look at your driving history before they decide your premiums. If you have had lots of accidents in the past and are not a sensible driver then they assume that this pattern of behaviour will continue in the future.
Personally, I think that this is especially true in the corporate world. If you look at people like Lenigas for instance, who is an appropriate comparison for Solo, then you see that for all his (many) faults the man consistently has the ability to find a good prospective resource, put it in a vehicle and get the share price going up. Yes, it never lasts but in 2011 for example he brought the share price here up by nearly four times over the course of four months and he has pulled off the same trick at many other companies.
The point being , if you follow Lenigas at the beginning of his tenure in a company when he first vends in an asset then you normally stand to make good money. With Ferguson there has never been any rise or upside If you look at the share price performance at JKX it was down all the way from when he joined and it was a pretty similar story at Zoltav. It is also what has happened here.
I’m going to look into Fitzpatrick and Nicholson anyway and see if I can find any positive signs that might break this pattern. You never know, there may be some that will give me some hope for a better performance here in the future.
The speed Helium-1 move at, we wont need a development licence for years unfortunately steve.....
Thanks.
I'm probably getting mixed up with the development licences.
We seem to have lots of them some still to signed off.
The interim results published last week confirm that Helium -1 hold the mining licences steve. These licences are prospective, they would need development licences after and if they ever actually get round to drilling anything ready for production.
A few lines in the accounts filed at companies house.
Please correct me if I'm reading it wrong.
"Apparently helium one ipo and drilling is also being delayed by the Tanzanian government not giving the relevant licences etc."
Where did you hear that steve, my understanding is that this is covered under the Mining licence regulations and all licences are valid and in place?
Thanks for that.
Probably not worth spending more of your time on it.
The only thing that really matters is what they can and have achieved here.
Nothing at the moment except a 70% plus reduction in the share price.
Let’s hope this farm out is signed off and we can exit Tanzanier once and for good.
Apparently helium one ipo and drilling is also being delayed by the Tanzanian government not giving the relevant licences etc.
Hi OG, it is only a possibility from my side. If I was the Gov, I would say hang on we are right in the final month of an election and busy, come see me after we win.
Others think there will be some announcement and sign off ceremony just before (political motivation) to gain votes.
I honestly have no clue when it comes to the Tanz Gov.
Steve, I spent a couple of hours last night looking into Tom Reynolds’ previous appointments and it appears more of the same to Alistair Ferguson really. He has had one mild success, with a 36% value increase, one total wipeout for a 100% loss for shareholders and one 63% loss.
I’ll try and look into Fitzpatrick and Nicolson tonight, but in the meantime details on Reynolds are below.
Back between March 2010 and November 2013 he launched Bridge Energy to AIM in September 2012 at a price of 118p and then 14 months later in November 2013 it was sold to Spike Exploration for 162p (a 36.7% increase on the original listing price over 14 months). To be honest it is hardly and earth-shattering amount to money to increase the share price by but at least it didn’t lose money for investors.
Investors at Canadian listed Inoa Energy where he was CEO and President from Sept 2014 to Jan 2016 were not as fortunate. When he joined on September 2nd 2014 the share price was CAD$0.395 but by the time trading was suspended on November 20th 2015 it was down to CAD$0.005 (a loss of 98.8% of its value) and in Jan 2016 it went into administration – wiping out all of its shareholders with a 100% loss.
On April 23rd 2019 he was appointed non-executive director to Zephyr Energy (which was then called Rose Petroleum). Share price on April 23rd was 1.625p and October 7th the price was 0.6050p so it has dropped by 63%.
Hi Chris.... what’s the logic behind sign off after the election? Surely good publicity prior to the election is in everyone’s interests.
The point is a lot more expenditure and years to any income.
We don’t earn any income until the gas is flowing through the pipeline.
An outright sale seems the best option.
Why can’t they just get the old Kiliwani north well back into production?
Well that's the thing steve, 30 km connection pipe needed, so small but it will take as long to drill all 6 remaining wells and get all 8 into production as it will to build the Uganda and Kenya export pipelines, so they need to start now if they are to fill those pipes with gas.
Hopefully us and as far as I can remember our drill site is not too for connecting to the pipeline.
Of course the pipeline is a few years away from completion so probably no hurry for them to sign.