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... with 245Kt rapid output ramp-up... (per year)
Initial (optimistic) NPV8 was £250m (as per prospectus, with 245m rapid output ramp-up), let's adjust it for real risk in this sector and put higher interest premium lowering to more realistic valuation of £170m
now ramp-up postponed/delayed (lowering short-term output volumes) and increasing debt (incl. cost of this debt via higher interest rates, esp. living within covid realities and economic disturbance/instability it introduced)
effectively increasing the risk and depressing potential NPV valuation down to £110m
If financing plug is pulled-off then it's belly up, admin, hoping some shark would step in for TO at cheap.. (£60m max)
Realistically (some might think it is rather pessimistic) it's:
15% admin and probably 15% of value recovered on fire-sale (with secured creditors taking on most of a good stuff),
20% take-over for 50m-60m (nobody takes over for a fair value, there's always profit premium in mind, thus discount),
25% of expensive secured debt emergency financing with NPV down to <£90m,
25% equity raise (dilution) via share-printing - how much extra they need? 100m? (that's current m-cap),
10% all goes fine and valuation stays within £100m~£120m+,
5% reserved for miracle to happen
It's in the interest of funders and management with shares to get this running 'properly' and the sp higher again.
But the risk of some kind of 'default' has increased, or that profits will be servicing debts for a long time and further expansion difficult. ~7p, when most investors have averages >19p, is now the carrot to accept this situation. Or await more info and decide.
A market value reduced by 55%+ because of an unknown amount of further funding needed for a plant at its final stage to production.. the shares where trading higher then this level when this was at the start of build process now just before completion the shares are reduced significantly. Buying power was also strong over past couple of days, wouldn’t be surprised if the directors/insiders and topping up at these levels.
No need to poke then mannnan.........!
really, is there.........! 'n if ya looking for a bargain............?
All the best (read the posts........... :)
Well. Now I see
Bunsenburner. Is here.
Chesh
I saw this yesterday. Dropped more than 50 percent. And it’s continued. Who ever in here. Nightmare for them
Have a read mannnan............!
or dyor.......... :)
All the best (still in that Indian oiler bud, dropping like a stone........ :()
Chesh. Was it excellent
Nope...........!
"Salt Lake Potash Limited (SO4 or the Company) is pleased to present its Quarterly"
All the best (pleased at >50% ...........! :(
The problem remains, Financing and by how many shares, to whom and by how much per share. Right now it's a gamble, but a good one albeit... for a small punt.
??????
Just out. Rerate back to double figures could be on