Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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The thought never crossed my mind; I`m astonished to think that any person would actually resort to such desperate measures, truly very, very sad, anybody who does that.
I`m sure we can all agree.
I forget, what`s fair value with Rh at (say) $15,000 anybody? I cannot be bothered getting the spreadsheets out again.
About 175p ?? okay that will do.
Bankrak is pretty sharp on this - hopefully he/she will chime in.
Ta
You're not suggesting that Velo and 'Go go Velo' Mark are one and the same person are you?
Quiggers, no doubt! I also wanted forgot to add that Velo's analysis is on the pure stock performance etc etc...
Don`t worry, Velo is big and strong enough no doubt to take a bit of banter talking of which I've no doubt that bloke Mark will turn up now he`s back and support his idol lol.
The pop at Velo is rather funny (and unnecessary).
Chat, if you'd been around for more than 5 posts you'd understand that Velo has always made it abundantly clear he comes from a pure chartist/trend analysis POV. Views, musings and analysis of which, I'm very grateful for.
So your post is thereby rendered redundant bruv. But thanks for chipping in :)
So, just to be clear, past performance was no guide to future performance and the graphs and implied probabilities failed to take external events into account - i.e. the price of Rhodium, quality of the tailings received and the consequent impact upon profits and the share price. Well I never.
Error:
"...never mind me committing to an experiment commencing at July's end"
Should have been from June's end.
( Concludes > > > )
. . . Updated the tables and the current expected gains to the year-end are looking decidedly modest but acceptable. The cyclical stats wilted in July and at the last hour have wilted for August too!
And yet 80% is now the stated confidence preference, down from 100% !
So sticking with the strategy to see this experiment through to the year-end (long term investment in SLP is held elsewhere (the experiment includes the placebo stocks of JLP and THS which have also been affected by the downturn).
So, all in all, this downtrend has come at a bad time for my experiment, despite my occasional chirping on, about an expected mean reversion to the 200 average for just about a year now - and here it is!
" How do you now see August playing out? "
- My answer is not to let personal opinion intervene (trends are quite nasty at the moment) but stick to the new experiment strategy, which is currently down to (unusual for August) of only 80% certainty of a gain - and not the blow-your-socks-off variety either - just for August to close higher than it opened. A close lower for August would be seriously significant - it has been the driving force month for 5 years.
Separately to this strategy and trends - I am of the opinion that the final months of this year will experience a positive outcome that will continue into 2022 - but also yet another pullback yet again, likely before summer ends or maybe later on, but still ending with a general market uplift by year end (don't wish to reveal how I come to that conclusion; but if events transpire to that outcome and I'm asked, will probably reveal it).
If this is only a mean reversion to the 200 day average curtsey of Rhodium decline etc., et al, then the SP should not travel very far from the ever rising 200 day trend, and with hindsight I firmly expect this area to become regarded as a buying opportunity.
Next post is a point about the impact of the Q4 results in the next post and at the foot of that post a table of how I see the SP trending current positions.
Nonegspleeze @
" Velo - 10 days ago you were confident we'd close July higher than we opened.
Q4 report containing higher AISC with lower production has put paid to that.
How do you now see August playing out? "
&
Ecosselibre @
"I would very much appreciate Velo's analyses taking into account the Q4 report"
----------------------
Back home and free at last :)
" 10 days ago you were confident we'd close July higher than we opened..."
Ha! :) 10 days ago nothing LOL! I've been on about it since the beginning of the year :)
- Particularity August as for the past 5 years it's been at the heart of propelling the SP forward. Jan and Feb are the other half of that propellant and they duly delivered at the beginning of the year. However, this downtrend (deliberately not focussed on to allow myself no excuses to commit fully to these cyclical stats) was given added strength for that rare occurrence - a poor Q4 trading update, which destroyed July's expected outcome. It looked like July would come good in the final week, had it not come up against the brick wall of a dismal Q4 reveal.
That's what's different this year to all others since 2016. It had shown a 100% confidence rating all year, then at the 11th hour, reduced that certainty to 80% and also reduced the expected probable gain from some 12%+ down to 7%+ gain. That meant the opposite bet was a 20% chance of a close lower than which the month opened at.
Which would a professional take? An offer based on stats of an 80% certainty of result A, or an equal bet of outcome B with only a 20% chance of success?
It's been my misfortune to take the 80% bet during a mean reversion to the main 200 day average.
80% or 20%?
Who'd have thought it - 20% held sway - due to the bear trend during a mean reversion condition.
More worryingly, August was rerated by close of Monday, Augusts' first trading day, down from 100% certainty to also 80% re-introducing the prospect of a 20% chance that Aug closes down on what it opened at. Worse than that - the 23%+ gain for Aug, knock-you-socks-off promise I've been blabbing about has been reduced down to 17.5% gain - this is how July started curling down at the corners. I'm concerned, no doubt about it. Should August go on to fail what it's done for the past 5 years solid - that would be a major change in characteristics of the SP in the almost predictable behaviour exhibited since 2016 to this June.
In all this, my Trend Following preference has sung the truth non-stop, and is still bearish and screaming at me not to invest just yet, never mind me committing to an experiment commencing at July's end.
Updated the tables and the current expected gains to the year-end are looking decidedly modest, but acceptable. The cyclical stats wilted in July and at the last hour had
( Continues > > > )