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I will spell it out for you one last time. There will be no further response to your childishness.
Providence have applied for a Lease Undertaking on Barryroe. The find is classified as 2C resources according to Providence's own commissioned assessment. Both of those things tell you that the find is not yet declared commercial.
Lease undertaking issued under Section 10 (1) of the 1960 Act. (https://assets.gov.ie/77790/49e9b28a-60a8-4556-af30-f91699e3b2f2.pdf):
"When a discovery is made in a licensed area and the licensee is NOT in a position to declare the discovery COMMERCIAL during the period of the licence, but expects to be able to do so in the foreseeable future, the licensee may apply for a Lease Undertaking. This is an undertaking by the Minister, subject to certain conditions, to grant a Petroleum Lease at a stated future date. The holder of a Lease Undertaking is required to hold a Petroleum Prospecting Licence which will govern activities under the Lease Undertaking."
"A lease undertaking is a ministerial commitment to grant a petroleum lease at a future date on an oil or gas discovery that has NOT yet been declared as a COMMERCIAL find". (https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/providence-presses-government-on-urgency-of-key-barryroe-lease-1.4793995)
Definition of 2C (i.e. Contingent) resources from the Petroleum Resources Classification Framework of the internationally adopted SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) (http://info.specommunications.org/rs/833-LLT-087/images/PRMgmtSystem_V1.01%20Nov%2027.pdf).
Contingent Resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, by the application of development project(s) NOT currently considered to be COMMERCIAL owing to one or more contingencies.
Are you for the birds, by any chance?
Where did they say that "That just means that if you developed the field and got those sorts of flow rates per well (extrapolated for horizontal producer wells) that it would be commercial. "
Please inform us where O'Reilly or his spawn O'Sullivan ever said that especially when they said there were going to be 24 wells which equates, in your terms, to 84,000 barrels a day.
What they said in 2012 was "The analysis forecasts that a 1,000’ horizontal well could deliver an IP of c. 12,500 BOPD & c. 11 MMSCFD (c. 14,300 BOEPD) through a standard 4.5” outer diameter (OD) production tubing under natural lift."
Where did it say to be commercial they would have 3,500 bbls a day from 24 wells?
So where did you get your information from? "The Noddy Playbook", by any chance?
So please inform us of the "per well" information to be commercial at 3,500bbls a day which you claim was needed for Barryroe to be "commercial" as we missed that information somewhere.
"Please quote from the item exactly what Providence said that I misinterpreted."
It's the first sentence. Then go back and read my post of Monday 14:31 where I explained it to you. You're welcome.
ps200306 with nothing to do.
Please "quote" from the item "exactly" what Providence said that I misinterpreted.
Another report:
"Providence Resources has announced that its Barryroe well has delivered the first commercial flow rate of oil offshore Ireland. Barryroe is located at a depth of 100 metres in the North Celtic Sea Basin, approximately 50 kilometres offshore ."
Obviously you do not understand the word "commercial" and I would point out another oil field where it said it had a total of 10 "commercial" wells producing a total of 3,500bbls a day between them.
So, how is it that Providence, with a flow of 3,500 bbls in one hole is not "commercial"?
I guarantee that Ryan is convinced Barryroe holds a lot of oil and gas otherwise why would he not let Providence go ahead and develop it if he was convinced it was going to turn out to be a damp squib and he can be "justified" in his embargo?
You and Ryan are kindred spirits - both a pair of intellectual nobodys; in other words a pair of chumps - easily deluded.
Manyana, I don't engage with your childish outbursts which are very unbecoming for an 80 year old. I do, however, like to correct your regular gaffs and factual errors lest you actually lead people astray. Now, I can tell you had difficulty getting past the BIG LETTERS at the top of that article. Those are the headline, which wasn't written by Providence. You should try to get as far as the first sentence where it tells you what Providence actually said.
Thank you very much for taking the time to post the article Jodonne.
Phoenix 3
Alan Curran, who is coming on board as an interim CEO, has a lot of relevant experience over his 40-year career, going back to working as a petroleum engineer in the 1980s. He doesn’t, how ever, have experience of the Celtic Sea and is clearly coming in solely to manage the other consultants, NRG, which in turn retains RPS. The immediate problem Providence is facing is that having done its ‘K site’ survey last autumn – a precursor to deter mining a drilling location – the company is now waiting for what is known as a lease undertaking on Barryroe, which is to be issued by energy minister Eamon Ryan. Given his Green credentials, Ryan has so far managed to avoid issuing the licence to enable Prov idence to move forward, despite the fact that the Government is committed to ensuring that all existing licences can continue to be processed in the ordinary way.
On May 19 in Shannon, however, Ryan said: “Oil and gas exploration has no place in Ireland’s energy future.” Given the current global energy crisis and Ireland’s reli ance on imports for 70% of its gas and 100% of its oil, this statement could come back to haunt the minister. It would appear that for the next decade Ireland is going to need an awful lot of oil and gas and the the development of Bar ryroe may be seen as crucial. Even out to 2050, the UN in tergovernmental panel on climate change advises that the world will still need 40% of current oil production and 55% of its current gas production.
Europe as a whole currently depends on Russian gas for 40% of its requirements. If Vladimir Putin doesn’t cut this off com pletely, the EU itself is committed to reducing Russian fuel imports by two-thirds by the end of this year. This will leave Ireland mostly dependent on the British supplies over the winter, when it could become seriously expensive.
It could be that Larry Goodman understands the importance of Barryroe and believes that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will force Ryan to push ahead with the granting of the lease undertak ing to Providence. He may also know that the company will need $65m to drill the two wells that will allow the central Barryroe area to deliver and he would be well placed to come up with the readies.
n the meantime, Menton has had the idea of changing Providence’s name to Barryroe Offshore Energy. It is unclear what the point is, but the more pressing reality is that the shares are currently trading at just over 4c, at which Providence is capital ised at just €45m.
If Barryroe does get developed, the shares, as Goodman understands, will be worth well over 10 times the current price
Phoenix 2
Not too surprisingly, perhaps, this £2 company failed to deliver the goods and in July 2021 Plunkett fell on his sword and was followed out the door by Linn in October. Happily, for his seven-month stint, Plunkett still got €106,000, while Linn trousered an impressive €475,000 for his 10 months. Jimmy Menton joined the board in May last year, before taking over as chairman in July 2021. While known as a highly competent senior suit when at KPMG, he can’t have too much of an insight into offshore drilling operations. His other director ships include St Vincent’s Healthcare Group, Lisney auctioneers and CWSI Security.
While Boldy continues to look like the prefect CEO candidate, having been through all the surveys of Barryroe and is probably more familiar with the discovery than anyone else, he was not the name unveiled last month as the new interim boss at Provi dence. Instead of bring ing in Boldy, Menton initially retained the small British oil and gas consultancy NRG Well Management International – set up by Andrew McKay to specialise in well examination. No doubt it is a competent operator but does not have specific knowledge of the south Celtic Sea basin.
It looks as if Menton paid NRG €200,000 for the work it did in the last four months of 2021, a rather chunkier rate than the mere €60,000 pa Boldy is currently paid at Lansdowne. For example, NRG carried out a static and dynamic modelling study of the key Basal Wealden A sands in Barryroe to assess the reservoir performance and likely recovery factor, and also examined the development options. This is all work that Boldy could have delivered in a few weeks. Consultants RPS Energy had previously carried out an assessment of the Barryroe field in 2013, when it came up with gross reserves of one billion barrels of oil and a 35% recovery factor. In other words, this looked like a 350 million barrel project. In its latest report, however, it was (quite sensibly) asked to focus only on the central segments of the field, close to where the 2012 oil discovery well was drilled. Based on this central segment only, RPS came up with 81 million barrels of (gross 2C) oil resources, which could be developed with a two-well programme. RPS confirmed a net present value for this segment alone of $401m (€392m), which is based on a $70 Brent oil price. At the current $100 Brent oil price, this would throw off a net present value of over $1bn.
LICENCE ISSUE
To keep the Providence show on the road, the chairman oversaw the raising of €1.8m two months ago at a miserable 1.5p a share – in the process causing yet more shareholder dilution damage. Menton, who had filled in as executive chairman, didn’t get around to appointing a new CEO until last month – a full nine months after Linn’s exit.
Phoenix 1
Has Goodman got his timing right in Providence?
THE MUSICAL chairs continue at Providence Resources, with the latest face popping up being beef baron Larry Good man, who now holds a 16.1% stake. His most recent buy-in was the 8.2% stake held by big UK investment group M&G, which clearly got tired of the procession of drilling and funding failures. It sold out the whole of its 80 million shares at 2c each, thus crystallising a 90% loss. What is clear is that the arrival of Goodman suggests that the wheels could finally be starting to turn at Providence and a huge jump in the price would immediately follow.
What is also clear is that while Goodman knows more about beef processing than most people on the planet, he knows very little about offshore oil and gas exploration. Then again, neither did Nick Furlong, who bought into Providence over a decade ago, relying on then chairman Pat Plunkett to provide guidance. Before the most recent development, the company managed to pour hundreds of millions of euro down the wells before hitting what looked like the real thing in the winter of 2011/12. The first drill that was put into the Barryroe field flowed at 4,000 barrels of oil a day equivalent.
On the back of this success, the then directors (Tony O’Reilly Jnr et al) raised €70m in April 2012 at €3.95 a share – over 10 times the current share price – but instead of focusing on the big 300 million barrel discovery only 50km offshore Cork in only 100m of water, they went to the Dunquin prospect in the 5,000m-deep South Porcupine, over 320km offshore Cork.
FUNDING
Here the boys managed to get Exxon to farm in and €200m was splashed out to find nothing but water. In a second attempt, another consortium was put together to waste €100m drilling another non-commercial well. Pat Plunkett then oversaw O’Reilly Jnr signing up to a €200m farm-out with Chinese intermediary Apec, which committed to fully fund a five-well drilling programme for a 50% stake, but this all came to nothing. When Plunkett subsequently moved at the start of 2019 to install new management,, he didn’t opt for a geologist with both in dustry experience and – ideally – knowledge of the Celtic Sea, such as Steve Boldy, CEO of Providence’s 20% partner in Barryroe, Lansdowne Oil and Gas. Boldy has a doctorate in geol ogy and spent 19 years working for the big US Amerada Hess group as its UK and international exploration manager and was vice-president for Ramco in Ireland, the company that developed the Seven Heads gas field that lies right at the top of Barryroe.
Instead, Plunkett chose Alan Linn, who had originally worked with big names such as Exxon and Cairn Energy. He was neither a geologist nor a geophysicist, but rather a chemical engineer. Linn then chose as a farm-in partner a small operation called Spot-On Energy, which claimed to have lots of connections to the Norwegian energy industry.
ps200506, you really are full of the proverbial b/s.
Where does it say in the Providence report on Barryroe that all the guff you spouted was necessary to prove Barryroe was commercial?
O'Reilly made a bland statement that "Barryroe was commercial and if you read the headline in the following report that is "exactly" what is says; "first-commercial-flow-achieved-barryroe".
Vhttps://www.bus-ex.com/article/first-commercial-flow-achieved-barryroe
You really are buried up your rear end - get a life.
Providence said that the well drilled on Barryroe had a *commercial flow rate*. That just means that if you developed the field and got those sorts of flow rates per well (extrapolated for horizontal producer wells) that it would be commercial. It's different from declaring the field commercial, which requires demonstrating that there *are* connected volumes of hydrocarbons that can be exploited using available technologies at a profit. It's more than a semantic distinction, as the important industry definitions of contingent and proven resources depends on it.
Can we sue either the Government or Barryroe for false information?
The document "https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/3bcaf-policy-statement-on-petroleum-exploration-and-production-in-ireland/" specifically states that:
"While there have been some discoveries of oil in the Irish offshore, to date none of these have been declared commercial."
But Providence declared Barryroe "commercial" back in 2012.
I would like to point out that based on the following statement from 2012 that we have all been led astray by Providence when they declared the Barryroe find commercial. Note:
https://www.bus-ex.com/article/first-commercial-flow-achieved-barryroe
On the back of this Providence's share price went to £6 and O'Reilly stung the market for $100m.
So, either this document is incorrect or Providence rooked the public. Take your choice.
At the end of the day it either will have to be signed off eventually or the state will be sued if not and pay compensation to Providence. No doubt the state will drag their feet in courts but can't see any downside, money will come either way, just have to wait. Goodman didn't just join now to loose money.