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I really couldn't say what the short-term is, although getting rid of that much debt can only be a good thing. I could see them running a sustainable business with the Spirit portfolio (after stripping out 90% of support staff) but the Spirit portfolio has its own Bond which needs to be serviced!!! Keep an eye out for Directors dealings for a pointer or two - I'd say beat them to it!
do you see this getting any better been here for a long time but doesnt seem to be any movement should i cut my losses & put to share that is better investment ???
so where would that leave punch as a company and what effect on the SP
Only a month after I predicted - I'm in the wrong job!!! http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Punch-lenders-hold-pub-talks-ftimes-2259543733.html?x=0 If you are Spirit don't think it won't affect you, the discounts given to Punch by suppliers are based on the fact they have a massive portfolio - If this reduces to <1,000 from 6,770 some of those preferential rates may change....
Stonegate will be after the Spirit portfolio, I wouldn't sell - Its the only part of the business which is anywhere near profitable (taking into account the unusual mix of leased and managed). The 2 leased portfolios are millstones around Dysons neck - Suspect he'll go into robust negotiations with Ambac, take it or leave it style. If they do not offer him concessions (and they won't) my guess he'll default, leaving them holding the baby. I know at least one globally respected managed service company is hiring ex-Pubco key staff at the moment so I would guess Ambac are well on top of things? These are MY thoughts only but I don't think I'm too wide of the mark. Either way, good luck, sit tight and hang on for a white knuckle ride!
you obviously have a good knowledge of the industry from your previous posts when this time bomb goes off where do you think the future of the company lies ? think i might just sit tight and see who ends up being my landlord with an exit plan in sight regards Princess
Sad to hear you're struggling, bet it didn't help hearing Punch passing on the FULL 3.3% uplift on wholesale prices to their Tenants today. I'm afraid the ivory tower at Burton-upon-Trent is now more out of touch than ever with it's "Partners", start planning your exit strategy if you haven't already - and good luck for the future! Rob_wmids, the only bargain you'll get is on the ex-lease cars the BRMs will be handing back, they'll sit on property until the housing market improves, all the decent pubs have been ring-fenced into a sustainable bond
Will get a few bargains if Punch got 3 billion of debt !!!
After 15 years running their pub best my area manager can offer to save pub is advertise coffee & cake outside on a board ( really going to make a difference i think not ) FUC- - - G madness
Expecting an announcement from Punch CEO about future plans, massive debt mountain is unsustainable (with stage payments falling due in June) - expect him to try and default on at least 1 of the 3 bond issues. My guess he'll try to ditch Punch "B" still leaving Punch with c4500 pubs (mixed leased and managed). Where that leaves the other 3000ish leaseholders - God only knows. Deciding factor could be UK PLC (Govt) - they are major shareholders of Punch "A" financiers (RBS).
whats happening on here nobody post anymore are this share goni recover ???
60m will hardly dent the 3b debt!!! another assets sold in the fire sale no doubt.
Thanks for your comment time bomb just about sums it up
your lucky your still open, this is a ticking timebomb with not long left on the counter!!!
Branson, we all empathise about the tough time in the industry (and indeed the country) at the moment, the people on here don't give a toss about how the company is run - most are here for short term gains. Over a thousand tenancies fail every year but more people keep investing their own money to fill the void - Thats all the business or shareholders care about; sad, buts thats business!! Keep up the good work because if you are not part of the core estate you might be rid of Punch this coming year - Merry Xmas
i also run a punch pub and have done so for the last five years , av got to say that i would love to see in jan the title again of inviting all 7560 licencees to put a offer in to purchase there free holds ... i did last year and my valuation came in £150000 less than the asking price ??? and cost me 1500 pound to get the valuation .. i think us tied tennants have held on for punch a bit too long ,and it seems punch have been also tied with there debt... two wrongs dont make a right .let the licencees that have not lost there lifes capital or credit rating do wot they do best in a untied business that is about to hit the wall .its all very well saying should do this in ya pub and that in ya pub , but when the credit crunch on top of no smoking etc kicked in as well as the current tie , you could flop devastatingly into a bankrupt scenario QUITE EASILY .the good times have gone now and if we all do the right thing now maybe some of these 500 year old pubs can be wot they should be .if i had been free of tie 5 years ago this building would of been invested in and loved by the owner and all customers who enter for a nice drink in a responsible warm happy inviroment .COME ON PUNCH YOU HAVE THE CHANCE TO DO THE RIGHT THING HERE .
message to all shareholders i currently run a pub and this morning recieved from punch a present was it a xmas card a diary a free keg to buy the customers a drink NO it was a stupid glossy brochure that had been produced to improve trade over xmas best idea they could come up with was have a xmas tree decorate pub with tinsel lite a real fire if you have one and host a x factor night Just about sums it up 15 years ive dedicated to my pub and thats all punch can offer FUC-ING STUPID
.. better than expected, hense the good rise today... I can see these up near £1 next Spring !!.. BUY !
I would love to be a fly on the wall tomorrow, Barclays have already made their minds up and dropped the TP to 70p from 95p - It could be a bloodbath!!! Expect a Board and back-office clearout by Dyson, prompted by Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and Deutsche Bank.... And what about the Bond issue?
Yes , as the article states a lot of shareholders would like to probably like a default , but I would not count your chickens yet, I think Dyson might be trying to make a name for himself. I think a default and a quick 30% profit on our shares may not happen, unfortunately they are not running out of cash and the losses pub has made are mainly on the asset writedown, the situation could carry on for months or years so I would not get too excited yet.
This could put a dampner on the party. Their Lessee's deposits could be at risk if they happen to be on PUB's balance sheet. http://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/news.ma/article/89168?PagingData=Po_0~Ps_10~Psd_Asc What chance of default?
Say that again and the sp should hit 70p
The market has finally woken up to the fact that current achievable freehold values are probably masively overstated in their balance sheet expect further large falls
......any back up to your comment, or just a guess?
Punch is dead. ATB