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Below is the table from the OTC markets. Looks like short opened some time ago and is slowly reducing. They have 4.8m to buy back. Not an issue, but you always need to be aware that the market can move in unexpected ways when theres a shorter around! It does explain some unexpected moves though.
SHORT INTEREST
DATE SHORT INTEREST % CHANGE AVG. DAILY SHARE VOL SPLIT NEW ISSUE
04/30/2024 4,810,994 -5.51 212,905 No No
04/15/2024 5,091,372 -6.56 551,186 No No
03/28/2024 5,449,005 -9.43 440,014 No No
03/15/2024 6,016,551 -1.73 483,158 No No
02/29/2024 6,122,453 -3.20 636,544 No No
02/15/2024 6,325,110 2.73 423,695 No No
01/31/2024 6,156,863 4.69 155,562 No No
01/12/2024 5,880,925 -5.19 77,734 No No
Def. not saying the erosion issue should be side-stepped. That to me is a no-brainer and simply must be done if they want to keep operating in the area. It's more the fact that we're half way through Q2 with Brent averaging $85 and likely 18kbopd. So they know the next quarter will have strong cash generation. Plus they have $85m. The could have paid a 2c dividend and this would have little impact on cash pile now and in the near future. If they're worried about cash they should collar 30-50% of our production. There is no question in my mind this should be done to protect production (stay flat), dividend and BBs. The rest of production is free to peg the market. Personally I'd collar 9kbopd. AIMHO GLA
Spongebob's been in the Crusty Crab at lunchtime. He's on a roll. Must be looking today back in again!
The entire cash hand outs via PSU's is out of control - the award is not a fixed sum or an amount of shares - it's some probable award at the control of the company and no one knows what it will cost in 3 years - as for dividend that's a crumb thrown out to share holders while the Share Price retreats - even if PetroTal spent the entire free cash on share buy backs the probabilty is that it would only reduce the number of shares in issue by about 160 million shares - want a real Share Price that will attract institutions on other exchanges - reverse split the shares to above $4 and list - months ago I said this won't break 50p - and here we are travelling backwards
You'd think if employees are awarded shares, then its in their own interest also to increase SP price for them to sell it at higher price so not sure i agree that they aren't concerned.
They are being cautious with the working capital so do understand that if CAPEX is increasing from expectation, its not sensible to be increasing div/bb. The large CAPEX to me seems like short term pain for 5-10 yr of gains. If the erosion issue is left untouched, we are talking about complete stop in operations with it detreating at such speed.
One thing's for sure, this mgt team aren't particularly concerned about the sp. To not increase the dividend or buy backs when they have the money and dropped some unfortunate news about increased costs was a mistake that caused a reversal. But to then award themselves a ton of shares the very next day is very poor form. Thankfully the fundamentals here are very hard to ignore. If we drop below 45p I'll be adding another 100-150k shares. AIMHO GLA
Https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=f8685b12-e878-41fb-80b8-b8d6e05542d0
link seems to suggest formula for that is 2% x (FV of BB- FV of shares issued) so not sure if the PSU redeemed reduce that.
Even if it doesnt, they are currently spending $12m so additional tax of $240k isnt material imo at the amounts they spend + relative to this suppressed SP, to me it will be no brainer.
LSE, I agree that buybacks are preferable over time assuming the Company's earnings continue to grow.
It should at least be be noted though that Canada has introduced a 'buyback tax' of 2%. I believe this is applicable whether the shares are bought on the London or Toronto exchange.
Barnyards - I agree - pick up on the fact the "river BANK erosion control" sum allocated is about the same as free cash available and you begin to wonder what BANK is the money going too.
And click on that by next Quarter another 9 million +++++ PSU will be granted and the feeble minded think its OK as they wont be cashed in onsome hobbled notion that they are 3 years down the road and MAY be 0 - haaa haaaa - PetroTal is being cleaned out money wise.
Picked up 40k @ 45.9p. Seems a bargain given the recent news and expansion possibilities. Received a very decent 5.4p per share after withholding tax in the past year, so very happy here. It's moved into top up territory for me at a time when I have profits to take elsewhere. Jackpot!
GLA
Well in my case, i would prefer they purchase more shares vs issuing higher div due to 15% withholding tax on dividend payments in UK ISA. without the bb, share count would be 930m+.
Agree that bb figure is strange though i believe in the past they have done similar error in earlier RNS's and then corrected it in following reports. In both yesterday RNS plus the PowerPoint now available on their website they have it as 5.2m (RNS) and 5.169 (PowerPoint) so would go with those figures.
LSE202020 I have only taken based on the RNS's issued - in fact the 11th April 2024 RNS stated;
During Q1 2024, the Company purchased 4.7 million shares at an average price of US$0.58/share pursuant to the share buyback program.
Yet in the 9th May RNS they stated repurchased 5.2 million common shares in Q1 2024, so which is it, their figures seem to be all over the place.
either way their figure is only 2 million different to mine and I have only taken operational RNS's.
However the basis of the concern stands that being there is no benefit to shareholders in this buyback program as actually the company is effectively just buying back shares to give to themselves, so indeed its just a transfer of cash from retail investors to the officers and employees.
The money used to repurchase shares would be better spent on increased dividends if they really wanted to support the investors, but they won't do that as that would mean they would have to buy their own shares, god forbid.
Barnyards- no idea where you are getting this idea that they hold them in treasury.. those purchased via bb are cancelled outright
In yesterday's webcast they also confirmed they have purchased 16.5m shares so far (Stas- i noticed you only took up to Q1 24 to account)
A lot of companies do exactly that
they buy back shares and hold them in treasury so they can issue them back out in the future to employee's
they do this simply to get around seeking formal shareholder approvals on the issuance of new shares
the net effect on issued shares is zero and hence a waste of money
1. it's a gravy train for management and employee's
2. it's a clear sign of a company with excess cash rolling in and no idea how to operationally spend it to grow the company
buy backs (at least for me) only really work (as a shareholder value for money option) when they are written off (cancelled and removed from treasury) once they are bought back
the net result of the cancellation action being the true number of shares reduces and the financial logic would say as a result of there now being less shares around the share price should rise in relation to any like for like market cap
of course doesn't always work like that but the logic says it should or at least would
any company buying back shares and simply holding them in treasury for long periods of time as a result of having excess cash gets a red flag from me purely for a lack of ambition or ideas on how to better grow the company whether that is done operationally inhouse or externally via acquisitions
"between zero to two shares per PSU" . it will be vested in three years time IF they achieve the KPI's so i don't see issue with awarding successful management if they do their job and looking as SP over last 3-4 years, they seem to heading in right direction.
Having said all that, agree they should find way to go more aggressive with BB! :) in meantime, i will collect the 10%+ yield and buy more shares with my full dividend received.
Stas20 - factor in that the majority of the PSU's have a 2 shares for 1 PSU and the buy back program becomes a joke - reverse splitting 8 to 1 will kill the Share Price cancer.
PetroTal is acquiring Block 131 onshore Peru including the Los Angeles field from CEPSA for US$5 mm. The field produces ~900 boe/d from 4 existing wells and holds 4.9 mmbbl of 40-45 deg API oil 2P reserves. We estimate that 3 new wells (at ~US$12 mm per well) could increase production to 2-3 mbbl/d. There are also opportunities to develop bypassed oil with horizontal wells drilled high on the structure.
We view this acquisition as very accretive on a standalone basis. It also offers important area of synergies that will boost the value of Bretana, ......This has positive impact on overall average netbacks as the Iquitos route commands US$6/bbl premium compared to the Brazil route. The location of Block 131 is of strategic importance, as it is connected by a 130 km highway to the company’s Block 107. We have increased our target price from £1.45 to £1.50 to capture some of the impact of the acquisition.
Not done an accurate calculation but just wow, how many performance shares have they issued, just going back a bit we can see they have issued more free shares than they have repurchased with the buyback. Unless I am missing something this buyback programme is doing nothing for the shareholders other than transferring the company money to the officers and employees. Hmmmm
Performance shares issued
PSU September 29, 2023 - 752,833
PSU December 18, 2023 - 688,010
PSU January 5, 2024 - 6,959,115
PSU March 18, 2024 - 567,025
PSU April 8, 2024 - 1,323,473
PSU May 10, 2024 - 6,372,974
Total PSU 16.66 million issued
Shares repurchased via the buyback
repurchased 5.6 million common shares in Q3 2023
repurchased 4.1 million common shares in Q4 2023
repurchased 4.7 million common shares in Q1 2024
total 14.4 million repurchased
Facts - Amazon water level still at a record low Manaus - Max Manaus Barge shipments possible is 18 000 BOPD - Share Price going nowhere until sales hit 25000 BOPD range.
Buy Backs have not worked when your share volume stagnates and does not reduce thanks to PSU's issued.
Glaringly obvious pipeline transportation required to up delivery for sales.
Reverse split - the latin title is loosely "what the granny club ignores in the Amazon"
Terras caidas
The Ucayali in flood as it passes Bretana is a fearsome sight. I inspected literature on Amazon erosion last year and discovered most of the oxbow phenomena are mostly on the northern bank around the local area. The sudden anxiety on combating a potential problem illustrates how ignorant many are. There's a lot of literature available; perhaps a good intro is
https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=ucayali+eiver+bank+erosion&mid=BC31E72104D995D5D172BC31E72104D995D5D172&FORM=VIRE
Yurimaguas . . .
and Provencia news update keenly awaited.
#131 Cashabatay - formation
At 1400 acres, multi-stacked, present 4 wells on a 120-metre sands' payzone, shallower shale characteristics evident LosAngeles is going to be a useful add-on. (A fair amount of information shows up on the web.)(What is full license area?)
Interesting- some heavy buying reported after the close- 2.8 million.
Oh my - Q1 out and seems the money picked up on 87% oil shipments to Manus.
And that support your sacred cow SP "buy backs" - oh dear a bit of a sinking canoe - and u just have to luv the "river bank" fund smash and grab job - are we going to see 45p by Friday ???? - Anyone for reverse split and be damned to see the devil in hell ??? Anything is better than this slow death Buy Backs.
Auctus broker note out tonight in addition to Zeus notes earlier- ''We have increased our target price from £1.45 to £1.50 to capture some of the impact of the acquisition''
Listened to the webcast, very impressive