Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Rusty ,
Polymetal are saying that their new hub will be fully ramped by the end of 2023. They only started it in 2020. Pre-production capex is $431M according to the blurb. And Gold output
Agreed 1noicse, the value of this company, isn't much more than what it costs to build a pox hub. Look at the money Polymetal are putting into building a second pox hub, that shows the value.
Max13 - That fully sums up my view . At the moment we are the Stig of the dump but gradually this image will wear off and be forgotten. Then as our popularity and price improves, the few of us currently here will remember why we were here in the first place - to catch it whilst the price was way down in the doldrums. I guess patience is always in short supply but our assets aren't and the naysayers will be back here someday by which time we will be quite nicely ahead thankyou. The more I search and read, the happier I am. Wake me up after 2 years accounts and I will be pleasantly surprised.
1Noise
When Fe 65 was around 100, they were achieving sale price $65-70, now fe 65 is 210, they can achieve between $140-160 in 2021 provided price remains steady. Their EBITDA is going to surpass $100m anyway. They have option to make aggressive loan payments and reduce costs.
Another positive thing about IRC
Iron ore index 65% Fe fine : 210 USD /t
IRC average selling price is around 100 USD/t
Assuming, IRC manages to increase its selling prices. Those are massive potential gains.
KRSS, I agree, IRC has improved its fortunes and taken advantage on higher IRON ORE prices. Long mat it continue.
Retired Banker would like to give it away, to lose pogs guarantee. Lets hope IRC can keep it going.
IRC benefitted from very low LIBOR, high iron ore prices and rubble devaluation. POG is still treating it as a non core asset, which can change in future. IRC has shown $24m profit, probably paid 6-7m fee to POG, and 35-40m dollar interest+principal. Moreover there was big difference between production and iron ore sale volume. In nutshell, IRC is in pretty good shape.
Rusty, fully agree that the POG is pretty much undervalued in comparison to theirs peers....well the reason is the history of management unrest, changes and power struggle. ....once things eventually settled (hopefully they will.....) the actual business has very good potential, especially with the gold price future prediction....
IMHO.
GLA.
Updownflat, I don't mean to be rude, But do you live on Fantasy Island ??
If a company has debt that is guaranteed by another company, then what is DOES NOT !!!!! Is pay dividends. It repays its debts and releases the guarantees dog has given and both companies start to flourish.
I thought you said you were an accountant. ??? It doesn't matter what the market cap is, its the profit it generates, and up to now IRC has only just started repaying those debts, never mind making big money.
Google says $239M MC for IRC which is about right.
Surely if IRC is worth a $1b is should be making a dividend payment of $50-$100m to it investors ?
JRC100, No I do not think that Pogs price is relatively high , compared with CEY based on CURRENT performance of both companies, and it includes a premium for possible future performance.
I think exactly the opposite, I think Pogs share price is considerably undervalued compared to CEY, because we have a POX hub. Look how much money and time it is costing Polymetal to make a second Pox hub and that might give you an idea what is missing from pogs share price. A premium for having a pox hub, which CEY couldnt build even with their cash.
So I thing POG has much much more potential than CEY.
most companies are 5 -6 times
many companies trade on three years.
It would take them about 10 years to repay their MC ? If prices stayed where they are or went higher.
on $25m cashflow per quarter
you are ****ting me ....
Updownflat, irc’s mcap is already $250-300m, if my calculations are correct
Rusty- it was an observation not ‘analysis’, but I think what your views indicate is that you think that POG’s relatively high price, compared with CEY based on CURRENT performance of both companies, includes a premium for possible future performance.
Please don’t look upon any of my observations as trying to promote negativity - just simple comparison based on current metrics.
I hold pog and cey , similar patterns last few months both on way back up now hopefully , also got polymetal which is flying back up , so all in all a good day
KRSS, thank you for posting about IRC JUST CHECK AND PLEASANTLY SURPRISED TO SEE
0.275+0.025 (+10.00%)
At close: 4:08PM HKT
So , it does look as if they are making a bit of a comeback. It really would be great to see IRC DO WELL. And to think Pavel was looking to virtually give it away, which I have posted many times the I though was ridiculous.
POG's stake would be worth $100m. IRC can certainly do $25M cash in Q1
JRC1000 I totally disagree with your analysis. I will also tell you why. CEY, Has been making profits for year , debt free, and plenty of cash in hand.
POG, however is totally different, because they have a lot of debt, BUT, That was only that was spent on the POX HUB, There is an abundance of refractory ore in Russia, and once POG, has the pioneer plant up and running , hopefully, in the second quarter of this year and a third next year POG, will be in a much much better position.
I don't know what value is put on the pox hub, but, it must be hundreds of millions.
Fast forward a couple of years and I would expect POG to have a least 50% per cent more, if not double the production of CEY.
For that reason I would expect more upside from POG than CEY, simply because CEY is already delivering whereas I would expect POG to be able to increase profits markedly.
Of course I am biased as I hold shares in POG and I do not hold shares in CEY, BUT, on simple fundamental I see more upside in POG. Of course that could all change as CEY have a nice archest, but its what they do with that that will see if they can grow further.
It will be very interesting to see the fundamentals in 5 or 6 years, because I think POGs, will look vastly different in 5 or 6 years. They do NOT make great reading now, especially if you look back 5 years plus, but, hopefully the leaner times are behind us.
If IRC can make $100m cash this year, their MC should be around $300m.
Rusty - the observation I was trying make in my earlier post was that given POG and CEY Market Caps are similar but CEY’s fundamentals are superior, then either CEY is well underpriced or POG is overpriced.