Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
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ARCM will smell blood in the water. They'll be greedy and want this at low as possible now, irrespective of the deal this is a black swan event that has gifted them not only a get out of jail free card, but an opportunity to make a stack of cash because of market panic. Personally OPEC and the Russians will be sh*ting themselves. They'll know the exact figures they are exporting to China and I suspect the true picture is grim. A cut over over 3m (including the December cut) is likely to ensure the market is balanced.
Surfit.
In reply to your post ARCM must be the luckiest Company on the planet. As far as I am aware they are still short to the tune of something like 17% of the entire shares in issue. Will they close after the results, will they close after the meeting on the 17th? I have no idea.
Regarding the oil price as long as OPEC and Russia co-operate I can't see Brent going below $50 for any meaningful length of time. I'm certain that Saudi and Russia want Brent at $55 minimum and will (must?) act to ensure this.
Regarding the PMO/BP deal personally I don't care if it goes ahead or not. I thought Premier were in a fantastic position before the deal.
Virus. I think the Government will carry on with the same policy. The UK have 36 cases. The digraceful BBC keep accidently on purpose forget to say 8 have recovered. I have complained about this and so should everyone else. It is mis-leading the public and completely out of order. The World simply MUST develop a vaccine by next winter. I believe the Govenment will carry on slowing down the spread but it is highly unlikely we will be able to stop it. So basically slow the spread as much as possible. Maybe hotter weather will help. Then vaccinate the vulnerable with the new vaccine before next winter. That is what I think will happen. I think we will have at least a few thousand cases before then but other diseases like seasonal flu are more of a threat at that sort of level.
All IMHO.
If the debt restructuring gets the go ahead on the 6th and the 17th you would think the upward pressure would force ARCM to close - hedgies do have amazing ability to wait till the very last moment however.
On a different note WTI opened down 2% and hasn’t recovered much ground so not much joy for tomorrow morning. We need the covid19 numbers to turn towards fewer infections and more recoveries. Will take a couple of weeks at least if that is what’s happening.
Hi EmeraldCarrots...yes but posters were thinking ARCM position was around where they are now.
The Virus can send it lower but (IMO) not much more ( people will want to take advantage of the drop). The virus is a slow burn with a probale vaccine close. Not like subprime 2008.
So ARCM could start closing soon i.e add the prispect of the March Opec+ looming ahead??
Thoughts?
Rgds Sft
Surfit:-
PMO's fantastic deal with BP pushed the sp up, what...... 20% in a day or 2. It was suspected that ARCM were caught out as they had a huge short position (some 18%), so they argued the deal was bad........... then it emerged that 98% of the others lenders thought it was good........... LOL!!! So I;m right and you other 35 Co's in the same industry are wrong!!!! LOL! Well what lucky sons they are with the virus coming along!!!! Will they close it having to buy 18% of the total shares in issue to do so. We will see. I suppose if the sp jumps up a 5th in one day we will know!! LOL!!!. 77p + 15p is 92p by the way.
All IMHO.
Genuine question: was it not thought that ARCM were challanging the new deal as this was related to their short position? With the sp coming into a position where they can close the short. Would it not follow that their position would change or do they see a problem with the deal that all the other lenders do not? (For their benifit of course)
OR........?
Rgds Sft
ACRM I recently spoke to a few in the know, I am led to believe that on March the 17th court hearing it is thought ACRM will probably to PMO's asset purchase and the associated financial changes relating to it. PMO have spoken to several specialists regarding the situation and have a good idea of the argument that ARCM will use to oppose the plan. The court hearing is not to judge wether the deal is a good one but to check that PMO have went about it in the correct manner and legal diligent to there debt holders. PMO are quietly confident that they will have the answers the court needs to hear and actually have plenty ammunition to highlight to the court of the lack of legal followings by ARCM (bare faced cheek of them to put it lightly). I am told that when PMO originally discussed the deal the SP was 80p and they still thought it was a good viable deal at that SP. It would have obvious benefits if the fund raise could be doe at a higher SP, would love PMO to be able to delay the raise a few months but think they plan to go ahead as per schedule, but good to hear PMO still think it has plenty benefits at todays SP. I think for anyone wanting to take park in new share purchase they will need the cash towards the end of April.
The recovery rate cannot be calculated accurately.
You say the worldwide recovery rate is 48%. That will obviously be on known cases. Trouble is 4 out of 5 people don't get very ill and some have no more than cold symptoms that they would assume was exactly that, a common cold. The actual ecovery rate therefore cannot be worked out. The experts have the knowledge based on other viruses. They say the recovery rate is 98% (98 out of every 100 people live).
The buying of the BP assets in the North sea is fully underwritten. From the RNS:-
"The proposed Acquisitions will be funded via a US$500m equity raise (net of expenses) which has been fully underwritten on a standby basis, existing cash resources and, if required, an Acquisition Bridge Facility of US$300 million.".
Seems to me the only way it would NOT happen would be if ARCM manage to stop the sanction of the schemes of arrangement at the court hearing ion the 17th March. If they win does the Wold end? No, everything in cancelled, It says that in the RNS too. I'm ok if it is cancelled, and I'm ok if it is not!!
All IMHO.
Yes, Emerald Carrots, and the present recovery rate from CV is 48 percent worldwide.
Peltata, thanks for posting. Based on that, and not negating the obvious (inevitable?!!) increases elsewhere, we should also see quite a lot more in the recovered group over the next few days.
My take as it stands isn't so much the virus itself, but where it leaves PMO with regard to the asset purchase, Placing and RI. At present, and even with a best case scenario, it is likely to be several months before things return back to normal. Without a vaccine, and until one is freely available, then the risk, moreover fear, factor will remain; this will ultimately suppress our SP and could do for many more months after the 'all clear'. Any placing and RI need a decent SP in order to avoid a substantial dilution.
Under normal market volatility, I would not be concerned however, and assuming the RI and Placing are deferred / cancelled altogether, then where does that leave the debt maturity? It may well be, for an increase in the interest / coupon rate, that many of the current creditors will still be happy to extend, but this is an unknown. The Zama delay has probably been somewhat fortuitous (assuming still sold this year), and a decent recovery in oil price within a month or two, will still leave us paying down debt nicely. ... BUT, the elephant in the room is still that maturity, especially with ARCM still hanging around.
I am hoping that we get some clarity on Thursday. If that debt can be rolled over irrespective of the asset purchase, then all is good for anyone long term-ish (**assuming that World reaction doesn't get any more out of hand than it already is!).
Thoughts anyone?
Taken in by the BBC poor reporting standards.
35 cases, yes. That is what they keep saying. However 8 have been released and gone home.
They continually fail to mention that.0.
It's like saying we have had a billion cases of flu (fogeting to mention the 990 million who recovered over the years
Appauling and I have complained. Easy to complain on their site.
I mean if we get to 1000 "cases" and say 500 recoveries are they going to cary on not mentioning the 500???
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61 Gives some interesting charts. Looks promising to me but I’m long! Diagnosed flattening out with recovered catching up. Also Wuhei has x70 more diagnosed than anywhere else so it is the epicentre in an authoritarian country which is putting the place on lockdown (if a little late to start with)
Cases in UK have just jumped 12 since this morning. Now 35 infected
had fewer cases and cured more if you lkook at the statistics. Theory is viruses transmit well in cold air, which naturally cannot be as humid as hot. Viruses struggle to transmit in hot humid air. So the patients cought the virus in China and went back to the hot humid country where they live. Little transmission has occured - see the chart. Look at Singapore. 106 cases, 74 cured. Thailand 42, 30. Malaysia 29, 22. Vietnam 16, 16 - all cured. This seems obvious to me looking at the chart. Anyone concur???
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak
had fewer cases and cured more if you lkook at the statistics. Theory is viruses transmit well in cold air, which naturally cannot be as humid as hot. Viruses struggle to transmit in hot humid air. So the patients cought the virus in China and went back to the hot humid country where they live. Little transmission has occured - see the chart. Look at Singapore. 106 cases, 74 cured. Thailand 42, 30. Malaysia 29, 22. Vietnam 16, 16 - all cured. This seems obvious to me looking at the chart. Anyone concur???