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I was just on ZH and saw an article about natural gas prices plunging because of a relatively warm start to the winter so popped across to LSE expecting to see PMG down a few per cent. PMG still cruising above 40p despite the run up over the past few weeks and news about gas prices in the USA being down. This leads me to believe that the market sees PMG as a buy and hold with interesting possibilities in 2021 and beyond.
Looking a bit top heavy here.
5% rise daily Canna be bad....
easyp, they raised £40m in an oversubscribed placing in 2014 @ 255p with zero discount.
After all the hard work and acquisitions since then, and after his experience with the hostile t/o of Dana, there’s no way this will go for less than £255, Tom’s no mug!
LTD....and others thanks for your views on prospects. I see what you mean now, the land ownership does complicate a quick bid and since TC is a major holder (I did not appreciate it was 25%) its not going for pennies but pounds at some point in the future. Holding and watching for developments.
Back in feb 2018 when Tom aquired full control of the GPA, CNOOC (or Nexen as it was then) approached Tom with the proposal of the scott platform for the GPA take off (as i believe the rig was to be warm stacked back then). Then a reliable poster on this BB posted that Tom rejected an informal bid of for PMG of £1.40. Again from previous posters on this BB, we think Tom has an average SP of 70p, and the land aquistion in exchange for shares makes a hostile takeover difficult. No doubt he trying to build something substantial and doesn't want PMG taken over cheaply before it's completed.....whenever that is...nice move up on the SP, hope it holds.
Easyp - I can't see it going for 50p...doubt TC would be a seller at that price and he owns 25%.
Likely also unattractive to pure oil companies with these lumps of land included...fairly sure that was part of TCs plan...bit of a poisoned pill, and forces buyer's to negotiate over individual assets rather than a hostile bid.
Highly unlikely bid of 50p would do it for the majority of shareholders, now add a £1 and you maybe getting into ballpark imv. Nice to hit 40p again, oil/gas price uprate.
John - not sure the energy use is as simple as that. In the first lockdown the demand for gas reduced, but might be different heading into winter with lots more domestic heating on during the day.
In the medium term I still like european gas. Lots of big LNG projects and gas pipelines will be getting delayed due to Covid so I feel prices will be better in the next couple of years. Obviously platypus has also been hit, but it's a relatively small project so hopefully can be brought on quickly to take advantage of any rebound in prices.
Broadly agree with mrc but would add the outside chance of a takeover bid from a larger player priced around 50p.
Thanks mrc. Obviously strengthening oil prices, easing of lock down and as you say a cold winter will help. More home working will also, I would have thought, increase energy consumption - after all a factory or office block consumes much the same power if full of people or pared down to a minimum. Also Johnsons green initiatives will help renewables, maybe helped by the Scottish Parliament on top?
Hi John, I can see some progress on Perth / Scott happening in Q1. And I hope something announced for renewables - I'll need to give the annual report and see if there is any mood music.
SP wise, it's anyone's guess. If it's a cold winter in europe I could see it above 40p, if perth farm out is announced then 50p, and if renewables plan is revealed then 55p.
AIMHO
So chaps, with Brent at $48 where does anyone see Parkmead going in the next 3 months?
MRC
The GPA is very practical and as I keep harping on about the Farm in of Enquest;LBE ;Kistos ( my tip )Sinopec and Chrysaor
Rock rose energy sold up for quick cash I'm sure Cross and Austin are on first name terms
Somethings familiar by the way :)
SoB - All feasible and economical, but technically not trivial to take sour fluids back to Scott, and there will be capital expenditure that you wouldn't have if it were sweet.
It has all been studied though and found to be a goer so matters not.
Flying again today I see :)
MRC
Every one in the GPA vicinity intend to do it
Piece of pi..
It's a caker
Lol, agreed SoB.
If it was easy everybody would be doing it!
Thanks Mrc. I interpreted the onshore pipeline as a gross export route option as a stalking horse to keep the cost of the Scott mods “honest”. Time will tell, but interesting times.
sour gas is all part and parcel of oil recovery.The OGA will not leave the GPA dormant . Tom will bring the oil home
Scotties - I believe the wording is alluding to the sour nature of the perth fluids. They need to be removed offshore before going anywhere near the existing scott processing plant, pipeline, and onshore terminals.
There will be significant modifications to scott as part of the perth development.
Covid-19 on the wane ,price of oil ready to move back to $50 + Parkmead has the biggest undeveloped acreage in the North Sea plans are taking place at the GPA to recover as much oil remaining.
Logisticaly it's only a stone's throw away from fruition .
CNOOC have caused a bit of a delay here, but very nice of them to sell up in a buyer's market.
Perth coming online is at least 3 years away, but hopefully a clever deal can be done soon that gets parkmead a share of Scott or some cash, and keep a bit of exposure to the GPA potential.
Interesting wording in the results statement re CNOOC and also the study to produce directly to shore. There’s obviously some hard negotiations ongoing regarding the evacuation route over Scott. I wonder at what point the Oil & Gas authorities step in and mandate a deal?
Tom has stated GPA production route will be announced next year...... Kistos,EnQuest,Chrysaor and LBE must all be in the mix. This share is cheap as chips !
Pot and kettle comes to mind, got a cheek bad mouthing anyone that shower.