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All about risk assessment with shares - here its get bought out or international arbitration - clearly the former preferable as get the cash now - but the cos in arbitration are in my view high albeit time consuming for the reasons set out before.
Making PDZ a cracker on a risk reward basis backed up by a seriously professional team
Good post
Topped up 6000 shares at 21.65p buy not showing
The European Commission has launched last year proceedings against Poland for breaching European common values and rule of law. While only a warning, Article 7 could lead to sanctions and a suspension of EU voting rights.
So the reputation of the judiciary is clearly shot.
Thats is why the RNS mentions two treaties and the related international arbitration recourse - its international law that will determine the outcome and not the Polish courts. Of course, the Polish government could ignore the arbitration but the matter then becomes a diplomatic and sovereign dispute - with both the UK and probably more vocally the Aussies.. More importantly, if the Polish gov was to breach a treaty, then foreign direct investment [which they are totally reliant upon] will dry up rapidly - as foreign companies no longer see the rule of law being applied - a massive no no in overseas investment assessment. No proper company would ever contemplate investing where there is no rule of law. So there are domestic political ramifications that adds an extra consideration for the governments current misappropriation stance.
Almost certain the BOD is right here Re flouting of the law by the Supreme court - so the international arbitration boys will have a field day given the commissions observations - they will see it as an opportunity to reiterate the international displeasure with the current behaviour of the government.
So do you risk a US$ 3 billion claim – albeit taking years – and keep your assets but now cost a fortune – or do you offer a reasonable but full value?
PDZ are in the driving seat – they have check mated the government – I’m sure the BOD knew this was a likely ploy and hence the tight and swift responses each time the government digs a deeper hole for itself. They clearly have top notch lawyers & support of large shareholders [CD actually converted a loan to take 17% after the legal shenanigens]
All PDZ has to do is be patient - and what makes it better is that the state purchaser is the one whose in a rush!!! What happens when you try and be too clever and bully – in Africa it works but not an EU member with trade treaties.
.The other beauty of PDZ now is that it is an event share – value will be crystalised in a short period of time and by reference to a figure – it will jump to that figure instantaneously [and the first figure will be increased.imo]
In short you won’t have to wait for years to see the potential like 99% of the guff on AIM– its overnight.
Rare, rare,rare.
Lets see if the stars align.
Here's another link
https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-rule-of-law-suspended-from-eu-judicial-organization/
Trading activity will start when official RNS lands, by then the mm’s won’t let you buy sub 30p and it will be extremely difficult to buy any quantity. Best time to buy is now when no ones looking.
I agree - it would be the cleanest and quickest solution to the impasse - clearly JSW want to get a move on.
Suprised no trading activity
"Prairie Mining is a company listed on three markets, including the Australian market, which understands raw materials, and the British market (...), which - regardless of Brexit - can provide access to capital," - explained Ozon. "Having such a company, which is controlled, and at the same time it is public, you can collect money using the fact that it is a company from the capital market. So this is a potentially interesting option for us "- added the president of JSW.
https://biznesalert.pl/ozon-jsw-prairie-mining-przejecie/
Many options on the table for JSW......takeover in my opinion is Inevitable.
They changed the name yesterday from PSL :)
Cheers :)
Not a clue mate - never heard of it!!
Notice ASX down 7% today - all level here though
Jimzi - what do you make of BOU ?
Was thinking the cards were evenly distributed but the more I look at this, the better hand PDZ seems to have..
Whilst Reuters disclosed 8-10 B PLN possible cliam, the bod are wisely tight lipped and subtle.
The Company advises that it is not in a position to comment on the potential size of the claim that may be made against the Polish government should the dispute not be resolved amicably. [from the last RNS]
Great posts below - not the greatest negotiators the Poles though - giving these statements to the media is a gift.
The fact that Prairie Mining appeared on the international arena with claims against the Polish government estimated at PLN 8-10 billion did not change the interest in its takeover by Jastrzebska Spólka Weglowa. - We are moving to the next phase of talks - says Daniel Ozon, president of JSW.
Australians have two projects in their portfolio. The first is the reactivation of the Debiensko mine in Czerwionka-Leszczyny, the other is the construction of the Jan Karski mine in the Lublin region. However, according to representatives of Prairie Mining, the Polish government has torpedoed the procedure of access to deposits and construction of new mines. Hence the decision on international arbitration and Prairie Mining's claim estimated at PLN 8-10 billion.
As pointed out by Daniel Ozon, president of JSW, the mining company is still interested in taking over Prairie Mining and is in talks with Australians.
- We are moving to the next phase of talks. The next weeks of intense work are ahead of us. I have several visits to London during which meetings with advisers who help us in these conversations are planned. In the next stage we will talk with the main shareholders of Prairie Mining - emphasizes the head of JSW.
Ozon counts that the mechanism on how JSW could take over the Australian company will be worked out in March or April. Most likely, the takeover of the controlling stake would be involved by purchasing a new share issue of Prairie Mining. As the President of JSW argues, one of the main topics of the talks will be the valuation of shares that would be accepted by both parties.
- In addition, it would be necessary to withdraw the international claim announced by an Australian investor. I can not imagine that the State Treasury company we are, with 55 percent. participation of the state, having control over Prairie Mining was also in dispute with the State Treasury. I believe that we can be a catalyst for the resolution of this international dispute and lead to the takeover of control over these assets - says the head of JSW.
As Ozon adds, JSW is still interested in both Prairie Mining projects. It would be easier and potentially faster to start mining in Czerwionka Leszczyny. In the first phase, JSW could reach for coal using the underground infrastructure of the Szczyglowice movement, part of the Knurów-Szczyglowice mine. Debiensko has 35 coking coal (hard).
- Jan Karski, on the other hand, has semi-soft coal resources. I want to emphasize how sensitive this product is. After the tragedy at Rydultowy in January and February in Szczyglowice, we have a very large shortage of semi-soft coals on the Polish market. Our coking plants and coking plants, which operate on the Polish market, had to be a few percent. reduce production due to the lack of availability of coals necessary for optimal blends in coking - marks Ozon
WARSAW, 15 March (Reuters) - Jastrzebska Spólka Weglowa (JSW) JSW.WA would like to reach an agreement on the acquisition of Prairie Mining PDZ.AX by the end of April, said Daniel Ozon, President of JSW on Friday.
"Valuation advisors are working on independent valuations and we want to inform you in a communiqué by the end of April. (We want to achieve the key terms of the transaction, i.e. sign (the agreement) for the acquisition of control, after talks with Praire". - said the president of Ozon at the conference.
At the end of February 2019, the companies extended the term of the confidentiality agreement concluded in March last year by another six months, until 28 September 2019.
Yep, its like negotiating with a banana republic but they forgot they are in Europe - they will have to be careful cause if they push it too far - FDI will dry up - and that would be fatal for Poland.
The cards are evenly distributed
Nice post Jimzi. Recommended
If people have followed the company for the past year then they will know what is about to be played out here very shortly. All the pieces of the puzzle have been put together, Dan Ozon and JSW have done a sterling job.
Bid incoming imo
Well RSP for large quotes are actually much higher than yesterday and bid wise very strong all day [1.7 off the bid and 7.9p over the ask for 200k] For a quarter the bids the same, buy 10p over the ask
Yesterday, 14.5p for 200k to sell.
As ever- check for yourself - tells you more than any bb post.
And clearly looking at the volume, the only person stung is Hobione who probably didn't read the whole RNS and can't wait till the end of April - says it all.
Holders here know its not quite as black and white as some suggest.
Term sheet for transaction to be signed end of April. Bought the dip. Ta very much
Took a haircut but managed to get out above 22p gla holding
this has a long way to run in a short time.
Nice
You could buy a lot below the ask pointing to someone happy to supply the market. Just can’t get my head around being halted on one exchange due to a price sensitive announcement yet it merrily trades in 2 others.
I am new to this share, i just found this article which was probably sent before regarding the finance, but where does it mention Prairie.. (PDZ) or is it the wrong article? Thanks in advance..
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=pl&u=https://www.bankier.pl/inwestowanie/profile/quote.html%3Fsymbol%3DJSW&prev=search
It is crazy to think a year ago this was 50p now with a deal on the cusp of been sealed we are at half that price. Just goes to show what a blinder JSW have played.
Hopefully in the end thay will have to cough up near to £1 which would be a bargain.