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Just noticed annual report now on PDG website.
Thanks. I'd always wondered why a diluted EPS was quoted in annual reports - the options/warrants could in future be exercised, and thus reduce EPS. I would have thought that profits for current year of £40m was a bit high, but I'm happy to wait for a bit to see how things progress. GLA.
The Rights Issue documents indicate that there were warrants totalling 49,201,982 at that time. I am not sure what effect the rights issue had but the highest number of warrants would be restricted to circa 104.5m.
I think you will find that it is normal accounting practice to use the weighted average number of shares over the year. The reason for this in the case of a rights issue is that it offsets the fact that the earnings figure is less than it would be with the additional capital raised. It does state that the board consider the EPS figure of 2.3 to be the most accurate. I have calculated that the likely savings in credit costs in 2012 compared to 2011 will be between £26m and £27m (Refinancing costs £17.7m, lower interest costs c.£9m). This will mean we are looking at a PBT of £50m for 2012. Net income after tax of say £10 would be £40m and this would give an EPS of 2.8 for 2012 and a current P/E of 4.2.
EPS accounting rules are fiddley and I dont really understand them... Dilutive stuff is included in some way, new shares from rights issues etc are included on a time in existance basis (I think), and non dilutive stuff is excluded. But the distinction between dilutive and non dilutive instruments (potential ordinary shares) is dependant on the strike price of the warrants etc and also, more importantly the share price at the balance sheet date. * For now I guess its best to assume that 50 million to 250 million?? potential ordinary shares may be out there exercisable at whatever prices? * I think the logic behind EPS accounting rules is meant to be helpfull ... but fails miserably!
Is this what you're after? On p32 footnote 3 the number of shares and options are listed - 30.1m dilutive, and 57.3m non-dilutive. Do you think this includes warrants? I don't understand the reasoning behind weighting the number of shares over the year. The fact is that there are now 1420m shares in issue, all equally relevant to the EPS. Makes the figures appear better than they are.
Snap! I sold 40,000 @ 12.3p this morning also LOL... just needed the cash for the VER open offer and two new investments...will be watching PDG like a hawk though in case of any RNS got 20,000 left now...
Sold 40,000 shares @ 12.03p holding 145,000 shares
Still reckon there's some value here and agree with mathsprof that 16p seems achieveable in medium term. Definitely will hold until IMS at least (May?)
Printed off a copy of the results and had a bit more of a look - feeling a tad cross! ... so much spin! * Key Numbers (IMO) are Adj EPS of 1.76p and Book value per share of 16.4p (No of shares 1,420 million excluding warrants) * *** Warrants *** I was hoping to find a clearer indication of the number of bank warrants and other options in existence ... hav'nt seen any yet (guessed previously 50 million ... could be more than double that ??). * *** Annual Report *** Page 33 section 8 seems to say the annual report will not be available until May 10th ... this document might be the one which makes the warrant picture clearer. * *** Debt / EBITDA target whinge *** I really dont see why they bothered to set a new target for themselves when they have not acheived the old one !! * *** Dealing *** Leaving limit orders as they stand but ... whatever.
Yes, I was just musing on why the SP was not higher at the moment. I agree eps should go up with reduced finance costs, and a dividend would certainly make the shares more attractive. 16p in 12 months time is quite a realistic target, I feel.
I see what you are saying but on the other hand the lower costs from lower debt will have a beneficial effect during 2012 and onwards. Consequently if you are forecasting the same p/e, with eps growing due to lower financing costs you are also forecasting a higher share price. The equity attributable to shareholders is £267.2m which equates to a fair value of 18.8p per share. So both these factors indicate that the shares are undervalued. Even if they stay with "steady as she goes" the cost reductions will provide stronger profits going forward and with dividends reintroduced the share value should rise significantly. Buying in at 12.75 and selling at 16 is not a bad return over 12 months, and any dividend will increase the return.
The eps also appears flattered by the fact it is worked out on a weighted share basis of 1085m over the year. (That's how I interpret footnote 3 to the report.) There are now 1419m shares in issue. Worked out over the new number would give an eps of around 1.8p rather than 2.3p. So the current p/e ratio on that basis is about 7.2, and earnings not expected to change much in the current year gives a forecast p/e of 7.2 Lookers and Inchape have higher p/e, but then they don't have a big pile of debt. I still think there's some more value to be realised here - but not much.
... are flattered by positive exceptionals IMO ... lol go on send it down to 11p!
Ok, Odey is a hedge fund..but it is unusual for a hedge fund to take a 29% stake in a company isn't it? Also, don't they have an investment in Lookers. I'm not saying there will be corparate activity but it wouldn't surprise me. Glad to see SP recovering a little from this morning...couldn't believe it fell!
Rexco I have dug a little deeper My claws are sore now but I think the answer is No Dividend Chief Meerkat is disappointed now
Rexco so will us meerkats be getting a didivend
ODEY is a hedge fund and it is Private Equity companies not Hedge Funds which would move to takeover a company. Hence I see Odey as merely an investor which views Pendragon as having a price lower than its true value which will perform well during 2012 and give Odey a sizeable profit over time. The results for 2011 bear this out and with EPS of 3.7p this gives a yield of 28.46% on a share price of 13p. Consequently the shares are still well undervalued and should more than double in value.
actually no! morning HB
Operating cash inflow during the period was £97.6 million, which compares with £44.8 million in the prior year. The operating cash flow includes an outflow of working capital of £19.0 million versus an outflow of £59.6 million in the prior year. The Group continues to operate comfortably within the existing facility covenants The Group is also pleased to report a significant reduction in net borrowings The Group has significantly strengthened its financial position since the half year and the Rights Issue and refinancing has generated a reduced interest cost as a result of lower average debt and improved terms. The Group has delivered a second half underlying profit before tax of £13.1 million resulting in a full year underlying profit before tax position of £30.8 million, a 22% improvement on 2010. This has been achieved by interest savings and by the Group maintaining its position in difficult trading conditions through a combination of improved business performance, continued focus on costs and operating leverage as a result of significant increases in used volume.
did you put a b were the f should go ?
any new investor can check back an compare todays results ,also can see the company size an what it has to offer in turbulant times imho pen has performed very well an there is a good upside here ; )
??? some people are getting that way where any news is good news.....lol. buck up taters....
do seem pretty good on a few minutes reading ... NAV18p ish ??? ??? ! Adj eps 2.2p ish Act EPS 3.7p !! ... too lazy to cancel my limit order sells ... fight over em ;o) ... GLA
just to show how pendragon has an is performing ,the right stratergy an moving forward in its outlook atb.