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Adz
It cannot be denied that the hype and hysteria surrounding 88 has created unrational spikes (and drops) that many have capitulated on. It will go down in history as being one of the most hyped shares on AIM for a long time....IMHO PANR has to some extent avoided the huge social media attention that 88 did and still does. Again IMO I think there is mileage in 88e over the next few months to make money, but as I have learnt over the years you need to be on the ball with your own targets and what you believe to be a realistic return in what can be a volatile share when it dips.
With regard animosity on the 88e bulletin board, I would suggest reading everybody's posts thoroughly, as some posters do leave huge footprints or clues that aid you in making your own calculated decisions.
May sound like head-work, but let's remember it's your investment and your decision as to how it progresses.
Hope it makes sense!
Hi Scott, Ty kinda what i was thinking. 88e got me interested in the north slope after some research and a couple of losses trying to trade the hype. ill stick with the fundamentals. much appreciated for your time. :)
(Part 2, continued from below)
But the main thing, Adz_K, is when conducting a comparative analysis of the two stocks, using the historically-accepted risked/unrisked model, and you have industry veterans/analysts valuing PANR at >3x 88E on any given day (Rabito79); valuing PANR >7x 88E on any given day (scot126); valuing PANR 10x 88E on any given day (@contrarian8888) and who all share their rationale and models btw. And the response from the prolific social media commentators on 88E? Nothing, nada, zilch, zero…..complete silence.
Summary? It’s fundamentals v’s hype where the fundamentals are overwhelmingly and empirically in PANR’s favour.
Trust that answers your question, Adz_K?
As for what you should do with your investment dollars? That’s your call, none of my business. You wanna trade the hype of 88E, knock yourself out. But unlike the members of the 88E cult, please be under no illusions that you’re trading hype and not fundamentals, in fact not even speculation built on fundamentals!
03:38
Hi Adz_K – I’ve seen your tweets and I *think* I understand where your post is coming from.
Here’s what happening, IMO, in a nutshell.
In March/April, whether by accident or design, the US OTC market went wild for 88E. The social media campaign which occurred was like a tsunami and gathered everything and everybody in their path. The trouble was, *and continues to be*, that the 88E valuation is running miles and miles and miles ahead of its fundamentals. It was running ahead of its fundamentals in March/April and it’s running ahead of its fundamentals right now, today.
That’s fine, it happens, no big deal, correct? The trouble is that these rather unsophisticated investors have adopted a cult-ish outlook and unwavering loyalty to 88E. They view any attempt to correct a falsehood as an attack on the company and, as a cohort, do not appear to have the capacity nor interest in separating the facts of the 88E investment case from the hype and speculation so beloved on social media.
Meanwhile, PANR (their northern neighbour on Project Icewine) has concentrated solely on the nuts and bolts of their investment case. For example, the data gained by Talitha-A was incredibly valuable and served to advance the PANR investment case massively. Merlin-1, on the other hand, was budgeted to cost $12.6m and came in at $29m. That’s bad enough but the results from Merlin-1 were inconclusive to negative and had to discontinue due to an equipment failure. And yet the cult of 88E could not seem to process these *facts*.
88E hype:
a) contractors accept shares for payment = good; contractors immediately sell those shares = ignore
b) inaccurate rumour circulates that ex-88E CEO, Dave Wall, has bought 88E stock in the market after he leaves the company = good; this proves to be factually incorrect = ignore
c) plans for Merlin-2 are announced for the 21/22 drilling season = good; no plan to flow test Merlin-2 (??????) = ignore
d) rumour goes round social media that Conoco are about to bid 10c per share up to $1 per share for 88E = good; confirmation that Conoco’s Willow project (on which Peregrine/Umiat depends) is looking at a “multi-year delay”, therefore NPV per barrel in the ground calculation automatically decreases = ignore
e) social media “influencer” and paralegal from New Jersey tweets that 88E has “delivered and then some” = good; multiple equity analysts and oil industry veterans express fact-based doubts about 88E’s geology and strategy = ignore
f) 88E and PANR both confirm formally that there is a geological overlap at Talitha/Alkaid with Icewine = good; investigation points to PANR acreage contains vast majority of the oil by volume (>90%) = ignore
(Part 1, to be continued above)
Serious question, I was heavily invested in both 88E and PANR . ive moved more towards PANR since Dave sold his shares and since the Willow project issues as 88e is in the same jurisdiction? For me it made absolute sense to move when i did and it was well timed. Thank god. But reading the 88e Reddit and looking at twitter, i read somethings and think. WTF is that ****e its either from a year ago or totally out of context. If i try to question it or offer my opinion. all hell brakes loose. ive now just decided to keep my mouth shut. But if anyone could explain why on earth this is even happening it would be most appreciated? Also any counter suggestions as to why moving my portfolio more over to PANR could be a mistake im eager to hear. Thanks in advance and its just a question. :) GLA Not adverse to switching back at any point. im here to make money arent we all :)