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Well lets hope that this set of results concludes the consistent bad news ! We are down to a NAV of around 10p now and the Management team are consistently blaming the poor environment and downturn in mining etc...etc. but if you take a look at the report it reflects consistent bad results/news in other investments also which must show some dubious decision making at some point along the line. The only positive for me is the possible asset value in the Mandel project but will that ever improve on its current low valuation ? They have included a somewhat positive outlook statement which I have attached below :- The outlook for the sectors in which the portfolio companies are active remains unclear, although there have been a number of positive developments after the end of the year. We remain convinced that our Chinese investments are well positioned to benefit from long-term trends in the Chinese economy and society. In Mongolia, the conclusion of the deal to fund the underground mine at Oyu Tolgoi removes a significant negative factor, and could provide the basis for a longer-term re-rating of the country's mining sector. We continue to review opportunities for divestments in line with Origo's revised Investing Policy, however, we will only propose opportunities to the Independent Directors which we believe will deliver appropriate value to investors.
Hmm, June 12th should prove interesting . I wonder how much the " Substantial reduction" in the NAV will be ? but then again how long is a bit of string ! One good thing is that the share price seems to have bottomed otherwise we would surely have seen some downward movement after the wording in this notice.
Yes I did mention Rio and the long term highs in the Chinese markets etc. but no reaction. Origo's holding "Kincora copper" is in the same world class Oyu Tolgoi copper belt of Mongolia as the Rio deal which should prove to be advantageous, lets hope someone is interested in Gobi and Molyworld? All the best Cadbury and will post if I hear anything else.
thanks, mike59. v. thoughtful. I'm hoping that the positive news re: Rio/Mongolia would also help matters here....all best, cadbury.
Cadburyhill, HawkA1, et al ... Well I finally managed to make contact, I asked for updates on their strategy regarding sales (future and present) and that it would be beneficial for investor relations to keep us updated as these progress. They assured me that the management team are making every effort to sell the assets in the allotted time period and of course with the shareholders interests in mind. Was also told that an update on matters will come shortly. I took this as a positive and at least they did eventually get back to me after chasing them up a couple of times. Finger crossed for a good update ! - All the best
Yes am with you on this one CH, its another of my "Lemons" that has plummeted so far that the turn should be just around the corner. I also have (PTF) and (KSK) which are similar, whereby I have held on to them because I cannot believe that they will not eventually improve. I am on a purge at the moment and am chasing the management teams, I have had some luck with (PTF) but (KSK) are not responding at all. For what its worth I have sent out a mail to Origo today asking a few questions on performance and share price etc. I will put up a posting if I hear back.
agreed that this should have troughed out by now, given what's gone on in china. mongolia is still a bit of a mess, mind you... petercam are now out but i guess we have to assume that there's another seller who just wants rid of the stock and this is keeping the sp under pressure? In addition, there are pref share holders here who may be adding to the complexity of the situation. i've decided to tough it out. I don't see any advantage from selling here. ultimately, this is asset backed and most of those assets are more in demand than they were a year ago and perhaps, incrementally, asset values and share price will start to increase. hope springs eternal.
Further downward moves today, I know the general markets are heading south but this should have hit bottom some time ago. I am going to try to contact them for some information, hopefully I will get some answers ?
Down some 4% today, really thought this had bottomed and we would just see upside. With the climb in the Chinese markets over the last few of months I cant believe this is going in the opposite direction, smacks of poor decision making from the management over a long period. Wonder if they will ever get their act together??
So, this is a complicated picture but, to cut a long story short, we are closer to the point at which assets held by Origo, such as China Rice and Kincora, will start to be sold-off. All an investor has to do is work out if the collection of assets are worth more than the 7.2p per share they currently have to pay (also taking into account the preference shareholders' prior claim on some of any cash realised under certain circumstances). Given the brutality of asset revaluations of assets in this and other China-focused portfolios in recent years, I'd suggest that there is room for comfort here. In addition, the recent relaxation of foreign ownership rules and the fact that the SHCOMP is up 20% from recent lows, should all give more confidence. This is probably a fantastic buy for a retail investor willing to risk a few hundred quid...Of course, if I had the evidence to demonstrate that it's a fantastic buy, the share price wouldn't be down where it is. DYOR, etc. etc.
According to Riverstone, Origo will acquire exploration licences in the Norwegian and UK continental shelves through farm-ins, licence rounds and focused M&A activity. Riverstone said that Origo plans to participate in the drilling of around 25 exploration wells over the next five years and, where appropriate, bring discoveries towards development and production. - See more at: http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1409038166320433700/riverstone-barclays-commit-funds-to-origo-exploration-.aspx#sthash.C1GoZSGb.dpuf
http://www.riverstonerel.com/news-media/riverstone-announces-$200m-commitment-to-origo/
the right time to enter this one..
we need someone to come in and clean up the capital structure here to free things up. the pref shares really get in the way of the market being able to see value in the ords... with the benefit of hindsight, the decision to issue them was a bad strategic error on the part of management.
time will come...
Origo’s Kincora Copper in Financial Times today....expectations are that previously written off mining licenses will be returned, and the ongoing conflict between Rio Tinto and the Mongolian government may come to an end. All of this, if it happens, will be positive for Origo and Kincora alike.
it can't be too long now...
will be buying here very soon
"Ex – OT Chief joins Kincora Copper. For those of you following mining and Mongolia, this is a big deal: Cameron McRae joins Kincora Copper’s advisory board. Cameron was most recently President and Chief Executive Officer of Oyu Tolgoi, Rio Tinto’s Country Director for Mongolia, Cameron oversaw over US$6 billion investment and the successful commencement of commercial production from Oyu Tolgoi, a world class copper porphyry deposit. Mr. McRae was responsible for all aspects of the project including safety, strategy, operations and growth initiatives. Pretty good news for Kincora as it takes on its own copper development in Mongolia, next to OT (TSX: KCC)." (Source: Origo CEO blog, 28th Feb)
thanks. that post was useful. I've followed Origo and Chris Rynning, the CEO, for a long time. I think this company, trading at a well-established, asset-backed, low and still supported by Lansdowne Partners and others, covers a lot of bases for an investor : - global clean tech, china consumption/urbanisation and natural resources. The bottom line is that the Origo business model is leveraged to the latter part of a global economic cycle (global capital markets revival, EM growth/confidence, basic materials demand). And there's not a lot they can do about it except wait. I think proper investors could do worse than wait along side them because when this starts to move, it will move fast. but i accept this stock remans a bore for a day trader.
Apparently OPP offers some upside http://investingsidekick.com/aim-project-imac-aurr-opp/
still quiet, still watching this one
oh well, I will be making some noise soon...