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Thanks Gordon, but if we go by the definition of contingent resources, as you have quoted below, " those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable" the part that I was thinking about was the commercially recoverable bit, and as you say "increasing the flow rates to commercial levels not the total amount." Should still give an uplift to the reserves was my thinking.
Yes Zag the BOD didn’t have much integrity. It did reach nearly 8p but perhaps some time before the drill.
Pysblore. Those figures are an estimate of course. They aren't changed by the Baker Hughes study which was about increasing the flow rates to commercial levels not the total amount. As I say those numbers are still a good amount.
So these figures you mention Gordon were last updated in 2015 as you say. Since then Baker Hughes has done the analysis and reckons there is a lot more potential given the plans, as far as I can see. So when we get those two drills working that should show a better estimate to correct amount, and I guess an uplift to the reserves.
Stevenwest
BPC never saw that number, it hit almost 4p approx 30 prior to Spud and then it capitulated due to complete Mismanagement by the BOD. They simply lied to all investors regarding funding and then agreed to the worst funding deal known to mankind.
I think what I’m trying to say is hopefully a price hike before even producing any big volumes. But I guess investor sentiment is difficult to predict …
I know I’m partly talking rubbish here and you can compare anything to anything and multiple factors affecting the SP including dilution BUT BPC (now Challenger Energy I believe) went into multiple pence (<10p) before they drilled and found nothing commercial so I still hang on to that hope that at some point we could do very well here. Like I said I’m probably talking rubbish but if I don’t have hope…..
Should be 0, 93 and 170
I think you also will find them to be particularly upbeat seeing there’s a placing happening. I did re-read some of the Irish Sea rns, looks we should have some news here also in coming few months at most
Not exactly. Thus definition from the Society of Petroleum Engineers, "Contingent Resources are those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable."
So most of that probably won't be commercially recoverable. Don't pretend to be an expert but I thought some of it might be if prices go up. If you look on the website it gives numbers for 1P,2P and 3P resources from 2015. These numbers mean proved, probable and possible and are given as 0, 83 and 170 bcf. The 2P number is probably the most realistic and the one Callum used in his recent calculation. Gla.
So we are saying this contingent is if everything goes according to plan right? So it could be a bit lower in reality.
Why is it not commercially recoverable? Is it due to difficult extraction?
Thanks for the explanation Gordon
if all goes well
Thanks TWB. I expect someone will say this is negative, but I don't think so. The near trillion cubic feet that Joe talked about is a contingent resource. Contingent means recoverable in theory but not commercially recoverable. Joe actually said contingent in his first share talk interview. I know Callum agrees about this and in a recent post made a calculation based on the 3C figures from the website, which are about a tenth of this. This is still a huge amount and should give a decent uplift and all goes will when the new Wells are drilled. If prices continue to rise a part of the contingent resource could become commmetial I guess. Probably no one really knows until drilling results gone through. Wonder when we will find out more about the jv and what % Oilex will retain? Atb. Gla.
I think Gordon is a realist actually, which you would much prefer rather than some mug telling you just want you want to hear. Also, he is invested now so there is no hidden agenda here - he wants to see it move quick just like the rest of us do.
BUT - the reality of the situation is that we have a placing to churn through (cash very much needed to complete cambay projects) and a GOI approval that could take a few months. So there is no reason for this to do a 1p until we are back in the filed with a potential JV partner. In 6 months time you could be extremely well rewarded for this and if they commercial the gas from the wells we are talking Multi bagger, no doubt. Patience and realism needed, not stupid ramping without any context. When it goes, you will know about it. GLA.
Enter Gordon to put a negative slant on it …
The MD was very optimistic and his tone gave me a lot of confidence. Now is the time for real returns for shareholders (I paraphrase)
I was watching the share talk interview last night with CEO and I do feel it sounded quite promising. So the trillion cubic feet of gas, is that what’s at Cambay?