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JB the problem you have is bias. You don't know the assets, you don't know the terms, you don't know the reason for the "delay", you don't know the proposed work programme and you don't know pretty much anything but you have a firm conclusion.
The problem with picking up more assets in the US is that the price has gone through the roof. On my private stuff we picked up a small field in Osage for $30,000 plus the P&A about May last year. The guys on the ground now think (prior to today) they can get rid of it for $200k/$250k. We have spent a bit and done some work but nothing to change the valuation that much: it is just that the environment has changed.
ML has indicated that he has been in discussions about other assets in the US (a bit similar to Caballos Creek) but the price has gone up or previously willing vendors now no longer want to sell.
The other issue is scale plus costs. Larger oil companies are pulling out of jurisdictions and as a consequence, decent assets are becoming available to small oil companies on terms that they could only dream of a few years ago. It also much cheaper to get stuff done in this jurisdictions, although it might take longer.
No way could NTOG get hold of US assets similar to Tunisian assets. It would simply not be doable for NTOG even if you could find assets with similar scale in the US.
If everything goes through on Tunisia, I think NTOG will do very well. But until it is done it is not done. So it could still end up that nearly 2 years work is wasted.
If Tunisia does go through, the US will not be neglected.
DYOR
You seem correct that Tunisia is a difficult buisness environment. 31 weeks.
I hope in some ways NTOG doesn't get the block(s) it is after as I can see the combination of Matt and Tunisia being the perfect combination for nothing much happening for a very long time. Imo.
Helpful
"Tunisa is fine and if it all works out, NTOG will do fine. The fact that it is difficult to do business there helps us get assets that we otherwise wouldn't get."
So yet again rather than going for a safe asset in a safe jurisdiction we are going for an asset that we otherwise wouldn't get in a difficult to do buisness environment.
Sounds like Matt has shiny object syndrome to me (Egypt)
Problem is he uses shareholders money to scratch his itches and has done unsuccessfully for over 10 years.
All Imo of course.
Re post 1643hrs
For a moment I was going to call you Matt!
Perhaps if you read my posts more often then you might be able to disagree with them from a fairly reasonable position.
I have criticised him on here with regards to a few things and I have told him so directly. Obviously, he has a different point of view on each of them but that shouldn't detract from what is going on in Texas.
I never liked the Mesquite asset, I thought the wells were too expensive, too risky and too big a bet on one activity. I also thought the returns weren't there even if it all worked out. From a practical point of view there were too many parties involved in the land and lease package and it turned into a nightmare where getting anything signed was near enough impossible.
On the Egyptian asset, NTOG should have done a deal before it went to arbitration. Why go to arbitration when you don't have a leg to stand on? On paper Egypt looked okay but I have been in other ones invested in Egypt and it was a nightmare to get paid but UOG seem to be doing okay.
Tunisa is fine and if it all works out, NTOG will do fine. The fact that it is difficult to do business there helps us get assets that we otherwise wouldn't get.
Anyways, fingers crossed.
DYOR
A shiny turd is still a shiny turd!
Billy101203
Tunisia = shiny object
Your last post is the 1st one I’ve ever read!!!
Comes to the point after nearly 11 months where you actually criticised ML and his handling on certain assets. However we were shouting this since last year. Pray We don’t go into Tunisian adventure.
Well I hope you are right Helpful for all the long term suffers that have endured Matts incompetent here, although I am doubtful that Matt can keep on the straight and narrow and not be enticed by other shiny objects. We shall see.
One thing we are aligned on is the worry of a wider market crash.
Good luck all.
JB
Not desperate. Desperate is one of the insults the Trolls throw out all the time to avoid analysis. Q3 was good and in my view Q4 will be better. It looks like the average oil price will be higher for Q4 than Q3 and that average production will be higher. I did the numbers for you a little while back. I reckon that pre central overhead and capex that NTOG is seriously cashflow positive: somewhere between $300k and $400k pm.
You don't know my trading history here because I haven't disclosed it. All you need to know is that I am very happy with the investments I made and my trading to date plus I have a lorra, lorra warrants.
Unless we have a major stock market crash or the oil of price collapses, NTOG is set fair.
What we need to hear is that all the work that can be done on Pine Mills is done and that all the workovers/reconnections were successful. I have always liked Pine Mills and, in my view, ML should have put more effort into it and not got distracted by the Mesquite nonsense. I wouldn't be surprised if NTOG can get somewhere between 200 bopd and 250 bopd out of Pine Mills with everything up and running.
The next easy one is the Permian Basin Farm In. Hopefully, they are on with that now. The work should take about a week and then they need to flowback the well. The flowback takes a while but we should know something before Xmas.
You never know, we might hear something as a little Xmas pressie.
Thanksgiving Holiday in the US today and so pretty much everything will be stopped now for a couple of days.
xx
DYOR
That’s a good post.
www bloombergquint com/markets/flush-with-cash-saudi-prince-snubs-biden-and-sends-a-message
Being invested in ntog i want the price of oil to go higher but looking at silly politics in the above post made a chuckle
Trump probably was good in the end, atleast he stopped the oil cartel by allowing a lot of legislation etc around getting oil from fracking
Higher oil prices might be here to stay, probably a lot of behind the scenes under the table money changing hands
All roads lead to 0.25p Lol. Sadly thats true with this pile of dog muck
I hope output is higher.
It’s not about guessing game. You all of a sudden sound desperate. Sounds like someone who has locked in syndrome!!
Someone sounds desperate!
You should have sold them all in the 0.70s Mr greedy.
If Tunisia comes off there will be a placing.
Back to 0.25p.
If Tunisia doesn't come off.
Back to 0.25p.
All roads leads to
0.25p :)
Imo.
X
Do you want play a game of higher or lower? One of us can guess the current production at Pine Mills and then we do higher or lower. NB you will lose because you will always guess too low.
As I said a few weeks back, I reckon that the Q4 ops update will look pretty good.
In case you missed it:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/NTOG/operations-update/15202654
DYOR
For a moment I thought you were going to give us the price of a barrel of oil.
Evening Trolls.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/11/23/goldmans-currie-the-ultimate-impact-of-the-spr-oil-release-will-be-miniscule-at-best.html
4 for a penny thats about right!
Previous lows around 0.25 look a better entry after placing? Imo.
Order in for a load at 0.336 waiting for hinge and bracket to finally cook off.
.
Distract them while he rifles through the grannies drawers looking for pension book lol.
Lock up your grannies... :)
Funny. You Trolls need help. The point of investing is to make money. It is nothing to with luck.
Check out the news on Musonoi for RRR. That story has been going on for three years and it's time has now come. It was always a seriously valuable asset but the Trolls wouldn't have it.
NTOG is in similar situation, the house cleaning has been done and now things look pretty good. News from the Permian Basin and Tunisia very, very soon.
The penny will drop soon.
DYOR