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Hi, I read through the results at the weekend and I agree with your interpretation. They have taken a very modest value for the Lancasters into the year end accounts. since then we have seen more sales and a better yield. They just need to survive long enough to see the money. I think your assessment of the profit share may be a little generous in favour NTA but nonetheless I see a lot of upside here - and today would seem to underline that. I don't know much about the Vicarage dev, do you know anything about it ?
The results out last week from Northacre PROVE how much profitis going to me made from the Lancasters. Step one Northacre has just booked 2.4M from its 30% of secured sales as of 28/02/10.Sales prices £2,000 SQ FT The next 20% of secured sales went through two weeks ago for £107M or £2,800SQ FT Total sales to date £230M Next 50%[ to sell] based on up to date selling prices is £267M[ infact sales prices have gone up since the last batch of pre sales went through to around £3,000SQ FT Total sales £500M PLUS STEP TWO Cross referenceof the above. Northacre accounts £2.4M for 30% of the Lancasters at old selling prices of £2,000, gives a pro ratoa total of £7.5M Now change the selling prices to around £3,000 per SQ FT for the last 70% of the sales yet to be booked into the accounts. That comes to a total of £10M pounds which is Northacres 5% equity share in the Lancasters. 5% = £10M 95% = £190M = Total £200M Minerva have set to one side £70M for their share of the profits as of 31/12/09 in its accounts. Minerva have set to one side 41M for Northacres share of the profits as of 31/12/09 As we now know the total profit is going to be around £200M with MNR due around another£50M and northacre in my view around another £40M. As the site makes more profit than anyone had thought it could Northacres profit share gets very close to the MAX 50%. In my view it should after all the have done ALL the work bar get the bank loan,!!!!!!!!!!!
Yeah , good to have a foot in the door here , got a few more than 10,000 shares in "NTA" yesterday , one of my buys is on Plus Markets . ( normaly buy T20s , buying T3s here). BW Wraith
Good to see you here 10,000 shares is better than none. Next week is going to see more action me thinks. The Lancasters is selling for £500M [with the best margins of any builder in the UK] yet you can still buy Northacre for £10M.!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hi , been watching "NTA" for some time (since late 2008) , decided to put some of my "MNR" profits in here yesterday (Friday),---- OAKs (rather large) , i always liked "The Lancasters" , ------- could only get 50% of my targeted share buy here today !? -------- Extract : "Profit Share with Northacre plc Minerva's economic interest in "The Lancasters" development, a joint venture with Northacre, is unclear. Minerva's annual report to 30 June 2009 discloses only that "…Northacre [is] also able to earn a range of returns, of up to 50 per cent in the case of Lancaster Gate…, on the incremental development profits above pre-agreed thresholds". This level of disclosure, relating to one of the Company's largest assets, is insufficient to arrive at a proper value of the Company's interest in the project." ------ Source : RNS Number : 7919P KiFin 22 July 2010 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MNR.L&display=news&it=le ------- for myself , the risk / reward is acceptable . BW Wraith
Market just about to see little NTA grow into a rather large OAK. Looks like MNR stock holders want out of an asset play, and into an earnings growth stock.
The bashers are about to find out why i just love this stock. See MNR RNS newswire or the papers in the morning Huge Lancasters profits due to northacre.!!!!!!!!!!!! just you wait and see.
Page 47 [14b] of Northacre report, just out to be found on company web page. Northacres 5% equity stake in the Lancasters puts it on a foreward PE of 1 Add the Profit share of 40% to 50% out of a £200M pot and watch the fun start.!! From a tiny £8M pound company.
Results are out and boy , what great news they bring. £500,000 profit prior to one off costs, Vicarage gate to start this year , at least one new site this year, new work for both Intarya and Nilsson, Fair value of its J/V projects jumps 40%[ without the profit share,] Sales at the Lancasters, VERY confident at same levels or HIGHER, 15% -30% cut in overheads of £6M, going stright to the bottom line.!!!!!!!!!
As the directors do well so do all shareholders, Just a million quid divi a year would yield 10%on todays buying price. Divi could run at five times that .and still not dent profits put back into the copmpany
Looking at director dealings can see why this may be the case. Nilsson recently added to his holding and now has over 5 million shares.
See thar Hunter, ex NTA CEO, said in a recent interview re The Lancasters ,16 Jul 2010 ... “My ex-co-founder partner stands to do very well out of it,”
See todays RNS. Just spent over half a million quid on stock.!!!!
This week we should find out who are new shareholders are.[In the form of an RNS]
Bassett1, good luck, read the header on my thread ADVFN BB NTA. Around 10 posts all in order to show any new investor who is doing research.
Well Tara, I hold this and hope you are right. It all sounds too good to be true to me but we'll see. If it is as you say the cash concerns about NTA will erode and we should see a good rise in price. GL
Up she goes.!!
Bassett look in Minerva accounts its in black and white. See my posts on ADVFN BB NTA in the header.
Tara, your interpretation is far too rosey in my view. My experience of these types of deal is that they are tiered. The profit share would probably step up above certain thresholds. You also have no idea what those thresholds are. I would be very surprised if the profit share you are predicting isn't at least 80% overstated but we'll wait and see. You have to wonder why the 12% investor would sell out if you are right. All IMHO
Manse, thankyou for you post. Take a read of Minerva accounts 30/06/09 trading properties note 11. The group holds a 95% interest in Lancaster gate with Northacre also able to earn a rate of up to 50% on the INCREMENTAL profits above pre agreed threshholds. Building industry margins [pre boom were18%] The Lancasters is on its way to 100% margins based on todays selling prices. If Northacre has lifted those margins to 100% its share of those profits will be 50% or just short in my view. Good to see the stock is still on your watch list, ever thought i just might be right.??
I hold a fair number of MNR and a few months ago looked at Northacre after you had as usual ramped it up. I did research once again on Saturday and came to the same conclusion as I did earlier that this is a very risky share, and in my opinion could not reasonably be purchased if you wished to sleep at night Nowhere does it give a cast iron guarantee of a 50% share of Lancaster profits, with a fair wind 5% may be achievable, I would agree with basset1. Tara your post on Tuesday "6% of the company traded today, very, very, rare indeed". One only has to look at the Share Trades at the top of the page to see that in actual fact approx 10% was transacted and they were SELLS. There were 3 trades totalling 1,480,000 sells followed approx 3 hours later by the exact same amount making a total sale in 6 transaction of 2,960,000 shares. As i remeber without checking RNS again wasnt there also a large sell of by one of the investors? Personally I feel that this share is a risk too far, and you should not be attempring to mislead small investors as if it were the best thing since sliced bread! Didnt you last week after the Lancaster announcemnt state "this share should be x ten times. Against MNR at £1 you must be having a laugh. Personally l this is on my watchlist but that is as far as it should go in the meantime. go
another thing she does actually think everyone is stupid and shes the only one that is right anyone that disagrees with her she keeps calling them trendfloor she thinks hes the only one that disagrees with her but posts under alot of differant names she cant actually understand that there are alot of people out there with same views as ourselves
bassett have a look across the various boards iii,advfn tara ramps the living **** out of northacre and has done for over 3 years under differant names she actually puts people of investing here imo due to the garbage she posts she wont get it into her head that minerva borrowed 95% for the lancasters so therefore 95% of the risk so they are not going to do that then give 50% of the profit to a firm that is only putting up 5% i believe that nta will get some of the profit but like you dont think it will be anywhere near 41m-100m she relentlessly keeps going on about
What makes you think that you are the only one who understands this share. Surely you don't believe everyone else is stupid. I hold this share based on the upside potential of Lancasters, both the development and the interior design contracts. I can't believe the deal with MNR is nearly as strong as you think it is, and the share price is held back by the risk that the busienss won't survive that long due to cash pressures. We could all get diluted at any time. Honestly, aren't you being over optimistic ?
6% of the company traded today, very, very, rare indeed.