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Im expecting update on main Coal project financing at any moment. Remember China canned other projects elsewhere but not this one for Ncondezi. This is the most advanced project in Mozambique with EPC signed.
US$21m Historical Costs to be reimbursed
Subscription price to be agreed for CMEC to take 60% stake
Add the value of Ncondezi's 40% stake in the billion £ project!
Currently only £5m market cap!
Also now we have the new solar project to add to this!
Finally they listened! Although this still has a long way to run to reach fair value.
The recent news underpins the downside risk and the potential coal to power opportunity will deliver multiples on current sp level.
BENJAN, looks like the MMs have listened to you!
300MW Grid Scale Solar (with more potentially) makes this a no-brainer.
Market cap stil only £5m.
Can buy now at 1.19... only way is up here...
I could only buy 50,000 at 1.15, anything more was N/T. Had a buy order for a larger amount rejected, it seems we are unable to buy in any quantity at. These levels. Surely the mm’s should let it run.
#NCCL 300MW Grid Scale Solar Project, a major derisking event, with 1500MW Solar potential identified in concession area!
Solar, proven approach, with widest possible support (from environmental groups to state to funders i.e. no blockages), in region with huge demand/ awaiting markets. Add to that, strong state support.
In other words, a massive growth area with no hidden dangers, no drilling for oil with the chnace of finding none; no drilling for minerals with the danger not good enough quality; the land is there (the concession area). Funders will fund, larger investors will invest comfortably.
Completely investable. LOW Risk, MASSIVE UPSIDE!
Free float reducing all the time with BUY orders in the background.
Solar project is a major derisking event.
This is defo held back NT to buy even 500 worth..
From the RNS, the Ncondezi site has the potential for 5000mW... i think this is important info not to be overlooked.
My take on it is that they have initially identified 3 x 500mW areas to work alongside the C2P project which is massive news on its own merit... however should the C2P project fail then NCCl will go widen the solar area and push towards its full potential of 5000mW.
RNS:
The Solar Project will be located within the Ncondezi mining concession 5967C which covers over 25,000 hectares in the districts of Moatize and Chiuta in the Tete Province, which is large enough for solar PV generation potential over 5,000MW. 3 preferred site locations have already been identified, with similar climate conditions, that provide a generation potential of c.500MW each
Price has settled around here and only move upwards.. not easy to buy as I been trying 2k on Halifax and been NT to buy... but can sell the lot... just needs bit of buying pressure... this moves quick and every saw other day... not P & D
I did say it was going down when they resident r3tard was saying 2+
This will be back to last week's levels soon enough unless the bod buy some shares or give some news. Very obvious.
#NCCL News of Grid Scale Solar Project now getting out and being covered.
See this article from yesterday:
'Feasibility study launched for 300MW solar-plus-storage project in Mozambique'
https://www.energy-storage.news/feasibility-study-launched-for-300mw-solar-plus-storage-project-in-mozambique/
Can buy today just under 1.15 if any one waiting...
Really is an excellent, informative post Hammerphil.
#NCCL Grid Scale 300MW Solar Project is a BIG derisking moment. Solar hugely investable with demand/market growing!
Also, possibilities for solar at the site is HUGE. Once again, from the RNS:
------------
'Ncondezi concession area with 3 preferred sites of c.500MW generation potential each already identified'
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/NCCL/solar-project-fs-launched-with-target-npv-60m/15541700
------------
Market Cap only £5m, with the upside still mostly in play (just take a look at te SP/ Market Cap before the news landed).
Expecting a rebound soon.
#stockstowatch #stocks
Hammerphil thank you so much. Rarely am I met with such a concise overview of the company. I had an idea on the debt, though not to that depth. Moreover, the solar area is the area that intrigued me plus the potential upscale of this project.
You have definitely given me food for thought, though I think I have made a decision and will be coming on board.
Thanks again to you and others that have commented to confirm this.
Moved into close ...NT to buy now
Max on Halifax is allowed to buy 1500 worth rest NT .. few more buys and next leg up
I see Burger Boy has bought in now
this move with little buying.. if few more buys this will get towards 1.30 plus .. move upwards from here for sure.. RNS was solid and profit takers mainly gone
hammerphil - great post.
Good consolidation yesterday ... time to buy now
Thanks hammerphil1989 . That’s a great synopsis of where we are.
Hi STC,
LTH here but I’ll try to be as balanced as possible in my response.
To me, there are a number of relevant moving parts with this company, which should influence your decision whether to invest or not:
1) The main project is entirely contingent on financing being available (we are told that this is the key to unlocking the other workstreams, i.e tariff) and it would seem that Chinese banks are the only possible provider of this. China’s announcement that they will no longer fund overseas coal projects has understandably had a negative impact on the share price but they are yet to officially state that finance isn’t available for this project, which could be viewed as positive (as other projects have officially been shelved and the company, alongside CMEC, have worked hard to ensure the project is viewed as ‘advanced’ and therefore an exception). Recently, there have been some positive signs as the macro picture is changing and Mozambique’s relationship with China has been cemented (see articles re Yang Jiechi’s recent visit to Moz).
2) Regarding the solar project, in my view this is potentially a game changer. There will almost certainly be many willing financiers and Moz/the region needs the power, and quickly. As confirmed by the RNS, this project can potentially be delivered in 2024 by benefitting from work already carried out in relation to the main project. More generally, could this solar project also be the key to China providing funding for the C2P project? From a PR perspective, it may enable them to position their investment as being in an ‘energy park’, as opposed to just coal. This is of course speculation on my part.
3) Will more funding be required? Yes, as the RNS confirms current funds will last until October. However, in my view, particularly if there are positive announcements in the interim, the share price is likely to steadily creep up before October. Given Fridays RNS, generally I think that now is a good time to invest, as the company is no longer a ‘one trick pony’. I think this is the first time that this has been the case, as the previous solar arm of the company was almost irrelevant in financial terms compared to the current proposal.
4) Debt. Seritza loan restructuring seems positive for shareholders overall but there still remains the issue of the shareholder loan - this is referred to in the annual report and currently totals c. $5.4m. The company will need to take steps to provide certainty to shareholders ahead of November 2022 - they managed to do this before through the Undertaking not to call in the loan and I see no reason why they couldn’t/wouldn’t enter into a similar agreement in the event the restructuring isn’t agreed in time.
These are what I view as the major relevant factors but others may like to add/disagree! As mentioned, I’ve tried to be as balanced as possible but I do think this is a good investment at these levels and taking into account the current circumstances,
Have had another share come good which has left me with a little money to play with. This share has been on my peripheral vision. Difficult to get an idea due to rampers and derampers. I may regret asking but, my heart says invest, yet my mind is being conservative. Any help would be much appreciated. Thank you.