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I bet Tariq Hamoodi is watching LOAMs actions closely during this share buy back given the current litigation proceedings, they can't be that stupid and naive to repeat the same mistake twice!
Gino
When £35m of cash has been taken out of the business and there is no organic growth to support it the only thing holding the price up for a few weeks post buy back will be £3m market buying activity and Cavendish attempting to ramp at 60p...theycare off to a tremendous start already credibility already shot to ribbons from day one!
It's hard to see how the loss of £38m won't adversely impact the share price if there is no organic growth or other news to support it!
Enough said you clearly don't understand share valuations and their basis!
BT says he has no influence over the share price, but the information conveyed by the company and the authenticity of that information does greatly influence the share price.
This company is just far too secretive. It took a potential board shake-out for them to even reveal the materials they were working on.
I didn’t imply 24p. I said pretty static to where it is now 20p-21p. Until any news appears on the horizon.
Gino
You assume they will buy back we honestly don't know their intentions apart from they wanted a buy back to get 24p, possibly some CGT benefits, and a more concentrated post buy back share holding structure..
As I said before we will learn the outcome on LOAM's position via TR1 notices whether they sold out and left, sold some but did not buy back, or sold and bought back at a lower price ..can't see anyone paying anywhere near 24p which you seem to imply..when there is only £25m cash left over and no ongoing recurring earnings as in no commercial deals of any merit worth mentioning.
You are going to need a bit more than a few day traders if LOAM are looking to buy back 38.5% of their holding that they just sold off!!!
Gino
I'm not going over the same stuff 15 times!
Theres is only so much cash Nanoco has, unless we suddenly gett any news on a big order signing, take over offer, cadmium out right ban by rhos, whatever, there is not much to push the price past 17p...
Your saying nobody will sell at 17p, well it didnt stop people buying and selling when the price was 5p back in 2019. You always have people buying and selling, day traders for one!
Think NGR has said that he's been buying at 21p and selling at 21p pre-tender.
Wouldn't believe anything he has to say anyway.
NGR1616 - TG2D is suggesting that below
“ LOAM for instance get most of their shares bought back at 24p for them then to reinvest at a far lower cost post buyback at sub 17p”
So who is selling at 17p or immediately post buyback?
The company is currently valued on cash. £30m of that is being returned potentially and the market cap will drop accordingly even as the shares are cancelled. koobas workings stand up to scrutiny so 17p is possible. There’s no suggestion anyone would sell at 17p other than the suggestion you put forward. The bigger question is who should buy at 17p?
Who is suggesting that ?
I understand.
But answer my question please NGR1616. Who is selling at 17p immediately post tender?
Gino doesn’t understand
TwoGood2Die
My best guess is that the SP will remain relatively static to where it is now - in the short term, until we have any news.
But during the tender offer there are two options and two positions a shareholder can take:
1. Don’t take up the offer, believing that there is not enough value in the offer of 24p
2. Take up the offer selling up the 38.5% of holding (or potentially more) believing that there is value in the offer of 24p.
I appreciate that the market doesn’t just freeze but tell me which of the above shareholder types will be prepared to sell at 17p immediately post tender offer??
Gino
Put it another way £38m of cash was been removed...the remaining cash is £25m with 180m maybe 185m shares in issue post buy back the only other unknown is organic growth which we have been guided that a very small deal will get signed possibly this year, no guarantee, with breakeven next year...so parking speculation aside who is going to pay more than say a range of 14p to top end 17p (assumes tiny organic value) in effect paying a premium price....the market doesn't just freeze over with no buyers or sellers..
Gino
How do you justify a higher share price provide some numbers?
TwoGood2Die
I understand all this. But can you answer the questions…..having not sold out at 24p or having sold a large tranche at 24p…..who will be prepared to sell their shares at 17.5p???
The value is only what someone is prepared to sell / buy at.
Gino
The share price won't be 24p post buyback assuming that it goes ahead as £30m cash goes out the door, £5m will be used to repay the share holder loan, £3m will be used in market buying to try and prop up the share price post buy back crash either way you have cash £25m or 14p 180m shares or if your lucky £32m cash plus a small organic value, current market cap £70m less £30 Less £5m less £3m eqv 17.5p...
Only game changer if news lands on a commercial deal being signed. But if that event occurs shortly after the end of the share buy backbquestions will be asked why was a share buy decuded upon whe the Board had a commercial contract at hand and under tender!
TooGood2Die
“ Hence how will the apportioning of buyback over the 38.5% level be divvied up could LOAM for instance get most of their shares bought back at 24p for them then to reinvest at a far lower cost post buyback at sub 17p because when you take the cash pot out of the question there is very little if any value attached to the underlying organic business.”
This takes me back to my previous point though…..if PIs aren’t prepared to sell out at 24p and LOAM / other ii’s take the lion’s share of the 38.5% on the offer….then who is going to be selling ANY shares to LOAM / other ii’s at 17p post tender??!!
"To have a cgt bill you would need profits.."
Sorry my mistake, I was referring to dividend which outside of a tax free wrapper is taxed as income not cgt.
IDL70
"LOAM and the other big holders could easily exit completely if take-up among PIs is low."
Exactly my fear as well!
LOAM have access to price sensitive information we have seen that in last years trading activities in the run up to the Samsung settlement and post the agreement under which RG fully exited and did a runner!
Now how about this as a conspiracy theory 'Stitch up 2'....LOAM know that Nanoco are years away from any worth while commercial deals being delivered if ever, the techs aging and patents will expire within a few years..They see no future here and nor does NP and that's the buy back is priced at a lowly 24p, way too close to the current share price, to make the prospect of retail investors taking up the buy back unattractive, hence LOAM have the opportunity to fully off load as you say their stake at 24p and exit, the share price crashes to sub 14p and us retail investors are left holding the baby....Add to that the expected small first commercial order due this year gets 'delayed', no surprises there then, and next years 'breakeven' inflection point, 'lol', gets kicked again into the long grass!
That's a very cynical view but one that could easily play out with retail investors looking back thinking why didn't we see that one coming!
To have a cgt bill you would need profits..I doubt many holders are carrying taxable profits ..though LOAM took some out Jan 2022..but some of Loams holding is for a public pension fund I gather so would have been tax free anyway.
The business was valued at £40m at listing ( when Loam were a significant holder) and has raised a chunk of change since then through dilutive equity issues ..there has been some significant falls over the years so possible some have modest gains but most are holding much higher.
Not sure how the consultation will correlate with participation in the tender offer.
Many larger holders are likely to prefer a mechanism other than a dividend to avoid a large cgt bill, but they may still opt to retain their holding, bearing in mind the risks going forward.
So if the assumption is that a smaller than expected number of retail investors sign up to the 24p tender this implies that those investors that do sign up may get a larger proportion i.e. greater than 38.5% of their current holding bought back at 24p..
Hence how will the apportioning of buyback over the 38.5% level be divvied up could LOAM for instance get most of their shares bought back at 24p for them then to reinvest at a far lower cost post buyback at sub 17p because when you take the cash pot out of the question there is very little if any value attached to the underlying organic business.
This whole buyback proposal I really don't trust after we retail investors got shafted last year by LOAM, RG, and the Board.
Trust has all but gone now and been replaced with scepticism about the Board and its guidance based on past experience and their track record to date.
Maybe its not a coincidence the % of holders that were consulted over the mechanism and the level?
Following the receipt of the Final Litigation Proceeds, the Board and its advisers consulted with shareholders representing approximately 37.5 per cent. of the Company's issued share capital on the different options for a proposed return of capital.
The ability to subscribe for additional shares above and beyond the 38.5% is the reason why this is likely filled.