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sizeable sells now going to show upto end of year imo.
I would think that management will know the figures for y/e in the next 14 days. Would be very nice to get a pre xmas update, especially if it's really good.
Hi guys I have been watching this board regularly, so much more positive since SJL's arrival ! quite cheering at times given the investment/sp/time factors. we do seem to be inexorably achieving a position where we are going to be attractive as a bolt-on cash generator to a larger registry ...........Sunday , I have got my average down a bit with a few timely 6p buys, I've stuck at two and a half. my missus has recently built a position at around 6p grrrr....I am hoping for 15 or 16 p and am definitely encouraged by the quickening pace of the general consolidation in the market, we have all been a over optimistic about mmx over the years but i do now believe our buyout is a when, not an if, looking at the .org deal we could be nearer 18p,....................................hey ho just keeping in touch Huckster
On that basis our renewal income of $12m pa would get us to $120m valuation - £90M+ and knocking on 10p a share. I am surprised at the scale of the discount you think the market placed on your business. Seems very harsh. If we convert a decent amount of .work and .vip into renewals and achieve any momentum in adultblock - next year's guidance should surely be low $20m's and growing. 10 x revenue on that would be just fine. SB
Per domain can be misleading but 10X revenue is common place . Icm ... $41MM , $7.5 MM revenue or so , “ normal “ price would have been $75MM but “adult discount “ applied ... . Org =$100MM revenue so is 11x ... with say $18MM rev for MMx x10 = $180 MM valuation around 15 p a share ....
Its interesting to work up a company valuation based on domains registrations – but it does highlight major discrepancies on how larger portfolios are valued. If we look at our own business – we paid $41M (at the time of the acquisition – less on deal completion due to decline in share price) for ICM’s 100,000 domains - $400+ a pop – reflecting a mature, high margin, high renewal business. Strip that out from our non-adult business, and you get c.2.3m domains with a similar $40m current valuation - $17 a pop. So whilst the blended rate is low in comparison to market deals – it is spectacularly low in certain areas of our business. If we are able to effectively secure decent renewal income from .work and .vip; maintain our core adult business and add scale into the adultblock programme; and all the time steadily growing our wider portfolio – our business should become the cash generating machine we are all hoping for. There has been a fair bit of comment recently on domain pricing – and removing pricing caps from the large dominant properties (com, net, org). We don’t have the luxury of such an opportunity on the majority of our domains – but there may be scope in selected properties. It would be good to have a better understanding on average domain pricing and the average length properties are held – important data required by any would be purchaser and likely one of the main diligence issues should that progress at some point in the future. SB
Let the figures stack up ... I for one ( after 10yrs ) expect healthy returns. BW
Well at , say 10x domain revenue ( org ) then it points to at least a mid teens number ...in the event of a buyout ...
well, if you go on those numbers then MMX is well over 20p a share??
aah! that's more like it. Thought I would check first, but that's more like my calcs, cheers, ooops. maybe not? lol
Actually bakky , I must have definitely been on the pop and was quoting the wrong number from their report : 350 MM includes all gtlds and cctlds including the .tk which is a crazy “ free “ one .
Com and net is 156 million. So at 21BN that’s around $136 per domain .
Again , sorry for confusion ! Will try to keep off the pop before posting numbers in future :-)
didn't realise they had that many?
Ooops : must have had my second pomegranate martini before I typed that !
351.87 million “ domains “ !
what's that figure for Verisign domains?
Demonstrates well the disconnect between MMX valuation and other players. Although we are performing well and should be clear of all legacy issues soon,I feel that being listed on the dreadful AIM market is a significant drag to our valuation.
MMX is looking like a very attractive bolt on,who moves first?
.org----- 10 MM domains @ $1.135BN bout price = $113.5 per domain
Verisign : 3518.87 MM dormions @ $21.5 BN Market cap= $61.1 per domain
MMX- 2.38 million domains @$86.2 MM market cap = $36.2 per domain.
Cheap anyone?
Might be no justification but there is a reason.
...is ridiculous. No justification for such a large buy and sell price. SB
Break 7.2p, then 7.64.p. Good chance of run. Most positive since around Feb 2018 approx. Was flagged sell 6th May 2018, now buy. Might flip back but certainly a positive change ongoing.
Thanks for that SL, I would assume we would have around 50%of the retail sale price ,but even so some potentially large numbers involved.
I tend to expect low volume numbers ,probably from a lack of knowledge of this space and built in caution on the high value ticket price.I’m not sure that management can hide the true picture on sales for too long,they will have to raise guidance if there is a substantial gain from Adultblock.
Let’s hope all this activity leads to some investor returns ,thanks again for your thoughts SJL.
Sunday ,
Firstly the target market is the 70,000 + sunrise B customers from 2011.
The market changed with the “ glut “ of ngtld offerings in the last round with brand holders deciding to deal with offenders on an as and when basis versus defending in all tlds and .porn :.sex garnered only around 2,000 names each during their TMCH launches .
Money is less of a problem for the big brands so pricing for each offering is ok .
I do know the main 4-5 “ white glove “ registrars who specialize in this space would have sold this hard at launch as seemed packaged decently in an easy to understand way.
My guess that the wholesale of the 10 year launch special was circa $2,500 .
So only 1,000 of those would bring in $2.5MM extra cash .
I honestly have no idea how many of each they may have sold but it wouldn’t surprise me that overall the program may have brought in $2-5 MM for 2019 . Could conceivably be double that or more ...
Straight into the dividend pot I hope .
Management will no doubt not want to break figures out if has been successful so that any glaring lopsidedness in profit contribution will not be too obvious .
Hopefully we all get a pleasant surprise at the numbers at next trading update
Some very interesting consolidation conversation.As you say Silv ,value of holdings and time held will colour the picture for many.Ive been here for years now and have lowered my average this year ,which I was happy to do based on the business performance and the prospect of a dividend.
At this point ,some capital growth would help ease the pain but it was always my intention to reinvest dividends . It has certainly come to an interesting point in the MMX history ,where a number of possibilities present themselves in the near term.
SL,I would be interested to know what your opinion is on the two different Adultblock offerings.
I’m wondering what demand there is likely to be for the premium product? Cheers
Cheers SJL - it’s been a heck of a journey so far - and some of us have been on the train for quite a while - like you I hope 2020 is the year we realise a return commensurate with what started as a sure thing; struggled with growing pains and an over confidence on its position in the domain business; and perhaps has finally developed a robust and easy to monetise business delivering free cash flow, low overheads and strong distributions. Everything else takes care of itself after that. SB
"Entry price relative to current market price" and "time held" are the 2 big variables always impacting mood.
Would hope to have an exit by end 2021 at a multiple of 6p else opportunity cost is too high to make this worthwhile. It's not much of a "keeper" due to the risk. A speculation, yes.
If here for a divi alone would prefer the FTSE100 as yielding around 4% with sector diversity. It has to be capital appreciation here over 24-36 months from first purchase or this is pure dead money.
Exposure to China is a bit of a concern, nothing to do with current US spat, but the real chance of legislative change over there having a knock on effect.
SB ,
Good post .
The value is there a) on a straight multiple and more now than ever on b) a roll up valuation .
As you allude to , and has been my position , a dividend even of a few % takes the pain away from holding while the cap value comes to fruition .
The .org sale will hurt Afilias badly as they know will only be a matter of time before they lose the back end contract , so even they will be eager to bolt on some profit streams . Donuts , ethos ( the same imho ), Afilias , even Neustar plus a few others will mean a rush to become “ relevant “ as the consolidation continues : 2+MM names and $10-$15MM profits ( before and after savings ) make MMX a prime target imho . As u say 11p would still be cheap , so may be a question of management holding nerve and keep delivering each period better consistent results . I am pretty sure 2020 will be the exit but may roll into 2021 but in either case I think the price goes up substantially ... just my 2 cents . I’m buckled in for the ride for sure ...