Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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How on earth are we in this situation. the radio silence is awful.
Basically the market has priced in a failure to get the MDA and the loss of the Songwe license... who knows.
Well Songwe MDA really is out of our hands. All in the hands of Malawi. I'm checking google daily for any news articles(!) but nothing to suggest it will fail. Why would it? Who else will get that mine up and running. Certainly won't be Malawi.
Got an update on COTEC 3rd Jan - all good there.
Would like an update to confirm end of commission of infrastructure for the Birmingham plant to progressing to commercial volumes (to start at 20t/yr vols sometime Q2 2024 moving to 100t/yr vols Q3 2024), and progress on Germany Hypromag facility and the Polish Songwe concentrate processing plant, and progress on US Hypromag facility.
Not looking at any other mines MKA have because best to focus on one thing at a time
In the scheme of things things should be progressing but we can't really shout for news. I am not going to capitulate there is too much going for it.
GLA
Lewis: If they have enough cash until July 2024 at the time of print, based on what you have quoted, then the BOD need to have something in place PDQ, otherwise it is going to almost certainly follow the bunch of other AIM outfits that have recently destroyed their shareholders with heavily discounted placings, where their share prices had already taken a battering before funding news.
If they do follow suit, then short termers and traders are the only ones who are potentially going to profit here, like the above examples. The loyal investors will be fleeced (been there myself elsewhere and got several of their rip off T-shirts).
We will find out one way or the other eventually I guess.
LWHL - this is why I want to be kept up to date with the processing plant and progress there. MDA is out of our hands but surely progressing that at pace so we can get a significant income stream going is best.
Alternative to a raise of course, which you may know, is that we may bargain some small % of the JV away to COTEC for some funds. I believe we (this BB) also covered this topic a few months ago if I recall.
Such low volume and yet dropped 20% in a few days (6.25ish to now 5.25ish). Just not going to get spooked as that is ridiculous.
Short term - ? I have been here since 2016 mate... almost at my 8th year. My frustration is the lack of demonstrable progress with the main asset, and thus fund raising and dilution.
Daily RSI heading towards 20 now and oversold on the weekly - she's not likely to stay down here for very long.
CristalB - I don't think LewisW was directing that at you, I read it as more in general. I know you've been here a while and your posts have been balanced - that's why history here is useful!.
I agree Bonker, this is so artifical it stinks
I have said it on other share chat boards - AIM CEO's need to be in regular communication with the market. Only a small amount of capital finds its way into AIM stocks each year, and so each AIM operation is essentially competing for this small allocation of cash.
Sure, actions and outcomes are what matters, but in the pre-revenue stage, high visibility increases the likelihood of shareholder and potential shareholder interest and confidence = better raise prices/funding terms and conditions etc. Even more so, in a credit environment like this one. It really is as simple as that.
Well, how about a statement today noting the 52% decline in share price since December, 28% in just the last month, and that the BOD know of no reason for this movement? Furthermore noting some speculation about the cash position of the company, and so giving an update and outline to this end? Something along those lines would do.
This . Exactly this.
LewisW - I guess in mining "regular" can be at seldom as every 6 months! With Hypromag and building a facility then I would think every few months increasing until fully at production then noise for that facility will reduce because it'll then just be a nice profit line in the P&L. More facilities more news.
Looking at the last year or two we've had decent news at least every couple of months. So I think at this stage I would expect to hear something every couple of months. March 3rd would be 2 months since last news.
LWHL - no company does what you are proposing, absolutely no company. UNLESS it happens in a single day which it hasn't. Mining, RE metal prices (and raw) are highly affected by chinese production and the general global trend. Being able to recycle this material is a key step and I think why MKA will prove to be a success.
If you want to know why the likely reason of recent declines then you can look at these:
https://strategicmetalsinvest.com/terbium-prices/
https://strategicmetalsinvest.com/neodymium-prices/
https://strategicmetalsinvest.com/dysprosium-prices/
https://strategicmetalsinvest.com/praseodymium-prices/
which are not yet related to the company but we are in the 'Rare Earth' bucket for investors and so get affected by macro/sector effects.
GLA
FWIW - I expect Neodymium to bottom out with about another 10% drop - very timely.
There is not a lot the Bod can say about the MDA. However, I do think the Bod should be communicating, given decline in the SP and continued speculation over funding. I have had no reply to emails to Tavistock or Bod. Yes the BoD have done good deals previously but the market is a different place now. Even a 100% uplift on a good MDA/news would only just put us in double figures.
People will speculate as to funds and this is due to the last update quarter last year:
The Company’s consolidated cash balance at 30 September 2023 was $2,279,766 and working capital was
$1,095,734. The Company is reviewing future funding alternatives to provide investment for ongoing and new
projects and to provide working capital sufficient to fund Mkango’s operations in the 12 months from the date of
signing the financial statements.
Traady
Right. soo.... we knew all of this back in November. It isn't a surprise. Should be enough until end H1 assuming no sales from birmingham and no cash injection from JV partner. Dont forget on all of this we were expecting the MDA by the end of the year at the latest. But this company isn't just Songwe it is the recycling tech of which we have a serious JV with COTEC for (which wasn't known about at the time of the 30 sep interims).
GLA
MyIPA
yes I understand the formation of the comapny and Cotec, but I think, and more importantly, the market believes, that funding is an issue and imminent. End H1 is very optimistic imv. It may be that other avenues for funding are explored which would be great but eveything comes at a cost- be it a reduced percentage etc. The last raise was around this time last year £3.5 m at £0.125p. I will add when clarity is provided.
Agreed - primarily I thought that was to get the facility over the line plus the expansion into the recycling. You'd think they would have done it back in November after the interims, or even in early january if MDA not signed by end of 2023. So for me it isn't clear that it is currently necessary. I'd need to see recycling production (which should cover general outgoings of the whole company once commerical at 100t/year - but that is tricky as we don't quite know (i dont think) exactly what magents are being created (price depends on strength and type). Depends on incoming i should think.
https://www.metal.com/price/Rare-Earth/Rare-Earth-Magnets
looking at CNY120-380 divide 9 GBPCNY (about 9 CNY/GBP) is about 13.3-42GBP/kilo
at 20t/yr (1.67t/month) this is GBP22,000-GBP70,000 per month
at 100t/yr (8.33t/month) this is GBP111000-GBP350,000 per month
minus opex. maybe opex equal price scrap recyclers pay to get it recycled.
Short term goal is to get that facililty up and running and an interim update on that would be welcome in my view. Aim is to start at 20t/y vols then in a matter of weeks/couple of months ramp up to 100t/yr volumes. By Q2 2024 I expect the I expect 50k odd and by Q3 around 250k a month.
Some Warren Buffett quotes to keep in mind atm.
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.
Just buy something for less than it’s worth.
Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.
I am not disputing that there are many headwinds, both macro and (to a degree) micro, but IMO it is the cash runway uncertainty which is the fundamental reason why the SP continues to print fresh multi-year lows.
Regardless of what other outfits do, or have done historically, there is nothing stopping our company from issuing a statement along the lines that I suggested - assuming that statement applies, of course.
As I said before, anyone familiar with AIM has seen what we have seen elsewhere very recently, over and over and over again through the years.
It is not illogical to consider this as a potential factor at play behind the scenes.
The fact is, if they are going to need to raise cash via a placing (rather than an alternative financing route), then it would have been far better to have done so when the SP was at least 10p, preferably higher, not now.
Anyway, it is all healthy speculation at the end of the day. We all want the same thing here and I certainly prefer to be able to make praise, when it is justified (see my comments on ITV this morning, if you have nothing better to do, lol).
Have a good weekend all.