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The forecast price for early 24 is around 125 dollars so a touch down but you must look at the landscape change with demand down at present yet longer term forecasts are relatively unchanged.
Again though, there will be recycling revenue ahead of any mine decisions. The MDA when it lands will make the mine an asset with options.
Aha thanks, GLR ... I too presumed the 'commercial' plant needed to be fully functioning first to prove up to potential investors/partners but can see how the pilot can do that already...Those pics of the products etc
Super Excited! :) .... just need that bit to translate into the SP
Is someone able to advise (@GLR perhaps you know?) on the below:
- The DFS RNS on 5 July 2022 has a table showing pricing assumptions for first 5 years. From this am I right in thinking the DFS assumes an Nd oxide price of $210/kg ? The text before the table references pricing of $156.8/kg in 2022 increasing to $215.5/kg in 2025 and $266.0/kg in 2035.
- Does this compare to current pricing of $88/kg per Trading Economics and $75/kg per Metal.com?
- Hopefully I've got the above wrong, but if not does this not make Songwe uneconomical in current pricing?
It was interesting hearing JT (in today's Cotec talk) say he thought the JV already has a value which dwarfs the market cap of Cotec (c.£26m?) and he expects to make 100s of millions of dollars (albeit not sure if he was also referring to future JVs they are planning in iron ore & copper space).
He mentioned key part of Cotec role was managing [third party] funding which will involve continued marketing. Also mentioned seeing increased interest from investors. Eventually you'd have thought this will lead to increased interest in Mkango & share price going up
Yep so we currently have two planes in the UK
A small scale ‘pilot’ plant which works 100% as expected
A currently being built larger plant that will produce a minimum of 100t/pa est. for Q423
I thought the pilot plant was the larger plant, but not the case, that is being built now and should hopefully be commissioned
Everything works so I don’t see much risk here with the tech, that must be hugely valuable, JT said any investor who wants to equity fund the US JV can go to the UK and see for themselves
And yes, he was super excited :-)
Thanks, GLR... I missed it:( was having fun working in the rain so will have to wait for the video to be posted...Can you explain this though:
' the 'crucial' component of having a commissioned plant in the UK doesn't appear to be as critical now, as JT said that he personally visited the plant and any US investor can visit the plant, and see it working in all its glory, so the tech is now completely proven, which is fantastic news.'
Does this mean the Tyseley plant is up and running and operational already?
Another good call
One caveat I will get out of the way early, as to come across balanced, is that the lead times on the equipment needed to build and scale the plants, could cause a delay (Julian hinted this was an issue, albeit the only issue) so Q4 2023 IMHO is now a slight risk without clarification
With that out of the way, it's clear this technology is truly advanced, with over £100m USD already spent on it, the investor interest across the pond is enormous, with governments, OEMS and even magnet manufacturing companies very interested and eager to get a slice of the pie
I think by Y/E we might actually see some equity investment, from third parties (hinted) grants from the US govt et. al, looks like progress will now accelerate that the JV has been formed, the 'crucial' component of having a commissioned plant in the UK doesn't appear to be as critical now, as JT said that he personally visited the plant and any US investor can visit the plant, and see it working in all its glory, so the tech is now completely proven, which is fantastic news.
So we really are now at the the funding and scale up stage, what equity we will be left with once the JV is fully funded, we will see, but to start with an overall indirect 40% interest via Maginito is very valuable, especially should the US JV reach highs of $100m+ that would be almost 2 bags on our current cap just from the JV holdings (excluding our UK and GER plants, and any other ventures in the future such as Canada or Japan)
JT also said that there is competition but we are leading the recycling space, with the attractiveness being that our refining / production is extremely green
So ultimately, at £24m cap, we may be cheaper than ever, but the market will be the judge of that over the coming years.
Julians "Super Excited" sweepstake - I will go for 3.
Seems like only MDA news will unclog this stock. Come on Malawi, pull your finger out!
That the Cotec US HyproMag webinar is timed for Toronto stock exchange opening... possible news included? Dunno but we should get a clearer picture
Well my MKA shares are definitely an investment. The current investment objective is growth. In time this will move more towards income with progress of the various exploration mining refining and recycling projects.
This is an investment play once the business is generating cash and has no further need of raising capital.
This is AIM, where the mention of a casino is a good simile.
The MDA and then hopefully sale of Songwe at an attractive price will then make this an investment, as far as I am concerned.
I am clearly still long here, and I know how AIM shares rocket and plummet, sometimes on thin air. So I have no issue with that aspect. Anyway, it remains a waiting game for now. GLA.
Good we got about the same amount as Pensana from Innovate UK - and we are a company 1/5 of the MCAP! Bodes well for the future, as well as the JV which the market has also ignored.
Am I missing something somewhere?
I'd imagine the BoD are just as frustrated as us about getting this over the line. Definitely back in the buy zone. We are the same company as at 12p only with what appears fully funded, nailed on recycling entrance to the states and some massive partners to get an unlimited amount of used turbines through the doors. What's not to like?? (Other than the share price)
"The old saying about an investor being a trade that went wrong comes to mind"
Total rubbish, it's all about your motive, due diligence and timline. Quick bucks, you might as well go to the casino.
This is an investment play, traders should look elsewhere. The MDA is just a milestone that will happen. Cash burn is minor, the DFS was the last expense, plenty left from last raise.
Cotec partnership will bear more fruit than Songwe and sooner.
I always find a prospect with sound fundamental plans and management where everyone is doom and gloom is a buy.
Look at rainbow, up 100% when the sky was falling on boards at 8p, now 16p and talk of 160p
Julian is sure to be 'Super Excited' :)
Mkango Subsidiary, Maginito, and CoTec Form US Joint Venture
Webinar hosted by Cotec on 6ix media today at 2.30pm ought to be worth viewing
https://events.6ix.com/preview/6508426ce85a920a7509e0cb
'Join Julian Treger, President & CEO of CoTec Holdings Corp., as he discusses last week's press release and what it means for the company. The live event is followed by a Q&A session.'
Now you can ask about likely US Gov funding etc ;)
Yep. Still here, but regret not dumping one tranche when it was briefly over 12p a few weeks ago. Was about to go on holiday and decided to leave it be.
The recycling stuff is very interesting and I have made my opinions clear on that a while ago, but Songwe needs closure now. For cash flow and for BOD credibility IMO.
It is also more likely to keep me here as an investor, rather than just a trader...although I have probably been a shareholder here for too long now to count as a trader!
The old saying about an investor being a trade that went wrong comes to mind :)
'Rare earth permanent magnets are essential components in the F-35, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, and numerous other defense systems. These national security related uses, represent a small part of the US commercial need for rare earth element magnets. As a result, MCEIP is dedicated to using its resources to help stimulate private capital as evidenced by the E-VAC investment.
"We're building on previous DoD awards, that augment or complement other Agency investments for rare earth minerals to help establish an integrated, domestic rare earth supply chain from mine to magnet," said Dr. Laura Taylor-Kale, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Base Policy. "IBP is reinforcing the Administration's goal to build a rare earth industrial base fully capable of meeting our national defense requirements."
Invests in RE magnet supply...
'The Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Base Policy, through its Manufacturing Capability Expansion and Investment Prioritization (MCEIP) office, issued an award to E-VAC Magnetics, LLC (E-VAC) to establish a domestic rare earth permanent magnet manufacturing capability. E-VAC is part of VAC Group, a manufacturer of rare earth permanent magnets
The agreement will provide $94.1 million to E-VAC to acquire and install manufacturing equipment, operationalize technical infrastructure, and engineer production lines. E-VAC will perform this work to establish high volume rare earth permanent magnet production by 2025.'
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3529874/department-of-defense-enters-an-agreement-to-expand-domestic-manufacturing-to-s/
Come on MKA, put us all out of our misery!!! Tough seeing sub 10p again after last weeks great news. Hopefully news this month as another "save the share price" presentation won't wash.
Dr. Lazarus Chakwera
@LAZARUSCHAKWERA
·
9h
At #InvestInMalawi Forum, we have promoted Malawi as a viable investment destination. Huge opportunities in Agriculture, Tourism, Mining, Health, Education & Infrastructure development. Come, invest in #Malawi.
'This morning European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered her annual State of the European Union speech.
President Von der Leyen announced a new ‘Wind Power Package’. And concluded: ”The future of our clean tech industry has to be made in Europe”. The European wind energy supply chain is struggling. Unless we change our policies, we could lose European manufacturing.
The EU and Governments have set ambitious targets – 420 GW of wind energy by 2030. But the reality in the wind industry does not reflect this ambition.
And the struggles of the European wind supply chain mean Chinese turbine manufacturers are now starting to win orders.
President Von der Leyen called the wind industry “a European success story”. But wind can become an even bigger success story for Europe.
Many more workers will be needed to build wind farms – translating into at least 200,000 extra jobs by 2030 and billions of investments in individual EU countries.'
https://www.4coffshore.com/news/president-von-der-leyen-says-wind-energy-must-continue-to-be-made-in-europe-nid28050.html
Nice:)
'In the face of climate change, Scotland has emerged as a global leader in renewable energy. Yet, a vocal minority continue to undermine it. Last week, headlines reported that the decommissioning of wind turbines has become a “major headache” for the industry. Let’s set the record straight.
Dr. Charlotte Stamper, Energy Infrastructure Lead at EMR, highlights some critical facts:
1. Carbon Payback: Wind turbines offset their carbon footprint within a year and provide decades of clean energy.
2. Recycling Efforts: EMR, and others, are actively recycling turbines as they reach the end of their operational lives, recovering around 85% of the total mass as recyclable steel from each turbine.
3. Collaboration: EMR recently launched Re-Rewind, a project that will create a sustainable, circular economy for the rare earth magnets that offshore wind turbines contain, boosting the UK’s resource security and avoiding the nature-depleting mining of virgin material.'
Offshore wind turbines are an end-use market for steel that goes into foundations and nacelles (boxes for turbine elements), copper for cables, molybdenum for gears and neodymium for permanent rare earth magnets.
“The offshore wind industry consumes about a conservative 220 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium oxide (NdPr) per GW of installed capacity,” said Anne-Marie Sylvestre, a sustainability consultant for the rare earths industry and former global lead sustainability at Australian producer Lynas Rare Earths.
Sylvestre estimates that NdPr content in the current installed 64.3GW is around 14,150 tonnes.
“If the GWEC’s estimate of 380 GW of new offshore wind installations by 2032 is correct, then the industry will require about 83,600 tonnes of NdPr over the next decade,” she added.
Brussels-based Rare Earth Industry Association (REIA) estimates that the industry would require an average of 30,000 tonnes of rare-earth permanent magnets per year, or a total of almost 290,000 tonnes between now and 2032, based on the GWEC report.
REIA’s estimate is based on capacity of 28 GW being installed each year from 2023 to 2027. This amount then doubles to approximately 52 GW per year from 2028 to 2032.
Current annual consumption of neodymium is around 60,000 tonnes, according to Fastmarkets’ estimates.
“The data indicates that the demand for these magnets will more than double every five years, not accounting for competing demand from onshore-wind installations and electric vehicle (EV) deployment,” REIA said.
Sylvestre also said that her estimates did not consider the additional demand from onshore wind turbines, which use neodymium magnets but in smaller amounts.
Rare earth magnet supply
“Apart from current expanding production capacity, I see recycled NdPr extracted from offshore end-of-life wind turbines as a significant NdPr source within a 10-year timeframe,” Sylvestre said.
She added that there is no reliable method to recycle these materials at present, mainly due to safety, economic, and technical hurdles in retrieving and reusing the magnets.
But recycling is a considerably faster approach compared to initiating entirely new projects, and new developments might potentially reduce the quantities of rare earths needed in magnets, Sylvestre said.'
https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/offshore-wind-industry-in-need-of-rare-earth-magnets
Of the Birmingham Conference:
'Key Highlights of REEsilience’s Participation:
Prominent Booth Presence: REEsilience’s booth was a vibrant hub for knowledge sharing and networking, inviting attendees to engage with the consortium’s work.
Recycling Emphasis: Prof. Carlo Burkhardt (Universit of Pforzheim), the coordinator of REEsilience, stressed the significance of permanent magnet recycling. His insights included Europe’s imperative need to reduce reliance on imported rare earth magnets, the transformative role of hydrogen in NdFeB magnet recycling demonstrated by the SUSMAGPRO project, the idea behind the REEsilience project and the promising potential of HPMS for sustainable magnet production.
Innovative Research: Mihaela Rebernik of the Jozef Stefan Institute presented her research within the REEsilience framework. Her work focused on enhancing the performance of recycled Nd-Fe-B magnets through innovative methodologies such as grain boundary engineering and spark plasma sintering (SPS). The integration of Nd-Cu was identified as significantly enhancing the intrinsic coercivity and remanent magnetisation of SPS samples, offering a pathway to optimising recycled magnet properties.'
https://reesilience.eu/reesiliences-repm-2023-highlights/
A lot of work is going into getting the recycling right and the products from it to be commercial...