Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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ludeck 'I think some here will be pleasantly surprised by how many ozs will be have been added by drilling since the last resource update in Jul 2016' I know we will never know what we have right now as things 'hopefully' will increase further but what is your gut feeling for how many ounces we might have right now in hypothetical resource upgrade? I believe we were around 1.2M ounces at last upgrade (give or take) - if we were around 1.5M right now I would gladly settle for that.... and hopefully head towards the 2M eventually as Fulmar indicates GLA
possibly because they didn't hit the target set by the warrant sellers .Institutions here must be looking and thinking how on earth the Mcap can be so low with an absolute minimum of 2moz in the ground.
Damn phone - excercised ..
But why weren't the (employee?) 30p options exceeside when we were in the 80s not now in the 60s? Just wondering.,
Interesting analysis, thanks ludeck.
So what? Well I guess my conclusions are that there's really nothing very unusual, unpredictable or untoward going on here. The drilling updates are coming out at a pace which has been telegraphed by the company, and though many would (I am sure) prefer a more regular newsflow, that is what it is. The fact that each update has seen a similar uplift (and subsequent retracement) in the sp would suggest things are progressing solidly but that there is a fair amount of fast money here which is playing the news flow for short term profits, as well as the usual rainbow chasing... There have been many wild accusations and conspiracy theories voiced here over recent weeks. The directors are selling out because they know something we don’t. News is being intentionally withheld because a) it’s bad; b) it’s no longer relevant (now we’re in talks with a buyer); c) Lydia want to suppress our share price to further weaken our bargaining position; or d) Glen is incompetent and couldn’t hit a deadline with a barn door. Oh yes, and the good old “placement coming” theory. The reality is that both Lydia and Mariana want to prove up this resource and they’re going about that in a very methodical way. The 25m in-fill drilling is hardly exciting, but it’s necessary for the accuracy of the PFS and to add every possible ounce to the eventual resource. Around the time we get that PFS (last estimate was October I believe), we’ll also get a resource update, and I think some here will be pleasantly surprised by how many ozs will be have been added by drilling since the last resource update in Jul 2016. Once we have that resource upgrade, something upon which value can be accurately attributed, the share price will shift to value the increase in overall ounces accordingly. I would be very surprised if we’re not then comfortably at or around the 90p mark. Or perhaps more. Whatever that new level is, it will be strongly backed by economics, so just as this 60p level has served as a floor over recent months, I believe that new level will set a new floor. From there, we get the PFS and then – I think – a greater focus on the future. Whether that will be rumours of a buyer or financing for a mine we will see, but I’ll take 90p and worry about that later…
So what does this tell us? The response to each of the three drilling updates was strikingly similar. Clearly, the updates weren't the same, though they did have one thing in common: largely technical content with no easily quantifiable "outcome" (like a resource update). This leaves the market to make a judgement based largely upon "feel" and "message", and the message of all of these updates has (for me at least) been "unhindered progress", "excellent grades", and "encouraging signs of more to come". Though I am probably setting myself up to look foolish in 2 weeks' time, I see no reason to expect a different reaction to the next drilling update, if the content is broadly similar to the past three. An updated resource (which can be valued), or game-changing news such as excellent intercepts in the Russian Zone or in Ergama, would be an altogether different story ... Given that the two most recent updates saw absolutely no uplift before the RNS was released (indeed, the share price was on a downtrend at the time), it appears clear that the good ship Mariana is a watertight one. After each update, we have seen a steady rise in the share price over a number of days before a small retrace. The price then remained steady for a while longer before gradually falling away. To me this all looks very predictable and easily explained by market mechanics, and not any mm "games".
I thought I would take a look at the impact on the share price of the three most recent HM drilling updates. I will admit to being quite surprised by the results, and it certainly puts some of my slightly-less-than-enthusiastic comments about the latest drilling update into perspective. Starting with the update of 26th October 2016: From a low of 61.25p on Oct 20th, we reached a high of 79.2p on Nov 1st. This equates to an increase of 17.95p or 29.3%, reached over 8 trading days. The share price subsequently fell back to an average of 74p for the next few weeks. Next the update of 20th December 2016: From a low of 63.5p on Dec 20th, we reached a high of 85.25p on Jan 17th. This equates to an increase of 21.75p or 34.25%, reached over 13 trading days. The share price subsequently fell back to an average of 80p for the next couple of weeks. And finally the most recent update, on 23rd March 2017: From a low of 53.55p on Mar 24th, we reached a high of 72p on Apr 3rd. This equates to an increase of 18.45p or 34.45%, reached over 5 trading days. The share price subsequently fell back to the current range of 60p to 62p. So for the last 3 drilling updates, we've seen the share price increase by 29%, 34% and 34% again. Each time, this rise has occurred steadily over a number of days. And only for the first of these three updates did the rise begin before the RNS was released.
@earthling - having followed "Due some results, surely" with "hopefully increasing the resource and value" then I am assuming you are referring to results from Hot Maden? While Ergama and Cote d'Ivoire will remain very difficult to predict for a while longer, it should be easy to predict when the next HM results will come: The last HM drilling update came almost one month ago to the day. Prior to that, results had been issued in batches of 12 holes with a 2-month gap between each. (In fact, the last batch took 3 weeks longer, but they did include more than 12 holes, and the drilling rate remained more or less consistent.) So, all things being equal, the next 12-hole drilling update should come at the end of NEXT month (i.e., 5 or 6 weeks from now). BUT... we have been told a third rig is now on site and will begin drilling the Russian zone in Q2. Keeping fingers crossed that there have been no delays, I think we can safely assume they meant beginning of Q2 (after all... why keep a rig on site but not turning?). This means that, for most of the time since our last drilling update, we've been drilling 50% more metres per day. This presumably means that we get the results after 6 weeks instead of 9, meaning that we should be looking at the next HM drilling update in about 2 weeks' time. The good news is that this next set of drill results will obviously include some data from the Russian zone, so it is likely to be far more interesting. The last couple of drilling updates mostly covered in-fill and testing extensions to zones that are already well delineated and haven't appeared to throw up too much more of interest. To get some real progress in the sp we need either an updated resource estimate to include all of the southern zone discoveries made in the last 12 months, or an exciting discovery in the Russian zone. Or preferably both.
I have faith this will be our year, just needing loads of patience and then a bit more, Due some results surely and hopefully increasing the resource and value Personally, don't think it will be long now before SP turns in the right direction with higher highs and lows. Was the same with IRR and SOLG and look what happened there. I know some don't like comparisons with shares of different resources etc but they are explorers, and it takes time and then some more. Looking forward to the coming months here :-)
All look like mistakes/fat finger syndrome to me - see the 5th transaction at the same time for 59.08 - that's the "real" transaction
anyone any idea/thoughts about the 4 transactions about12.05 @69p ?
Some big buys coming through now, which is good to see - at last a positive sign for Marl for better things to come!
Solg is up 2200% fromp 2p marl only 300 from 15p or 1.5p we only need to be up a good myltibagger in order to catch only half of uptrend solg we should be 300p/2 150p and we have gold to produce now if they want solg is producing nothing for The moment....
here's hoping we make the list next year! https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/aim-star-performers-in-2017
Skibba-with the warrants being "soaked up nicely " and little effect to the SP, with the news flow pending (HM drills,and resource update, Ergama drill permit and 2 outstanding drill details, Ivory news and more) I think we are looking at an active 3 months.GLA
Not bad - another £600K in the company coffers :) D220 - suspect its much less than 1.5m, not really studied buys/sells too much since Tues (not had the time unfortunately) - but the pleasing thing is that they seem to have been soaked up nicely and/or MM's are happy to hold onto them to flip them once the price increases...all IMO DYOR etc etc...
As per Skibba last weekend: "30p warrants - need to be exercised by 27.04.17 - opening balance as of 01.01.2017 = 4,012,387 - exercised 392,825 & a further 187,500 exercised on 10th April leaving a balance of - 3,432,062...by my calculations, well OVER half have since been exercised. Expect an RNS any day as many of these have been forward sold.." So maybe another 1.5m left??
Another 1.98m warrants at 30p issued.....
Grabbed another 10k this morning may not move far in the next few weeks but longer term at this price had to be done GLA Saints
Probably because we don't have drilling permits yet so they are not trying to look too pushy,but I liked the wording "expected to contain etc." but you are right "hopefully" doesn't look hopeful.Never mind,when HM triples,we won't care less.GLA
Re Ergama: "Permitting to assess the potential of the central potassic alteration zone, ...... is in progress with follow up drilling hopefully later this year. " Doesn't sound imminent then...?
Thanks for the report xow .That sure is some decent director remuneration for a loss making company !