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Quick note on Q1-GDP report:
On Friday, the first estimate of Q1 GDP report was much stronger than expected coming in at 3.2% versus estimates of 2.3%. There are a couple of important takeaways from the report:
The first estimate is simply a collection of economists estimates as most of the data for the first quarter has not been fully compiled yet. This suggests the next two estimates will likely be revised lower due to some of the recent softness in data we have seen.
Almost 50% of the increase in GDP came from slower imports and a massive surge in inventories which suggests slower consumer consumption which comprises roughly 70% of economic growth. (In other words, future GDP reports will also likely be weaker. (Net Trade and Inventories was 1.68% of the 3.2% rise.)
Had CPI been used rather than the BEA’s more questionable measure of “inflation,” GDP in the first quarter would have been just 1.56% which is more aligned with the actual activity seen in the first quarter.
This puts the Federal Reserve in a very tough position of NOT raising rates further and eliminates any possibility of a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet.
Lastly, bonds yields should have surged on this number suggesting a much strong economic growth rate. However, yields fell on Friday signaling that investors are continuing to question both economic growth and the market rally.
“But…the global slowdown is temporary.”
The expectation of an economic recovery to support the continuation of the bull market is likely misplaced for several reasons.
The Fed rate hikes that were done in 2018 are still working their way through the economy, Higher rates are impacting economically sensitive sectors like autos, housing, and manufacturing.
Economic growth globally remains weak and is impacting growth in the U.S.
Interest rates, and the yield curve, despite stocks hitting “all-time” highs are suggesting that economic weakness is likely more pervasive than currently believed.
The rising trend of the U.S. dollar will impact exports which makes up between 40-50% corporate profits.
Imports continue to suggest the U.S. consumer, 70% of the economy, is weaker than headlines suggest.
Rising oil prices, and gasoline prices, are a tax on consumers and will further impair economic growth.
Deflation is a rising concern.
There is no massive slate of natural disasters to pull forward consumption or boost manufacturing, construction or commodity demand.
While deficit spending is certainly supportive of growth, with the deficit already at $1.2 trillion, the rate of change in deficit spending will not be supportive of stronger economic growth.
a great weekend e'one. Hope Tro is back by Monday ...LSE.....grrrrrr......:((
Tata e'one xx
Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!!
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaall mimmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmine :))))
Cakessssssssssssssssssssssssssss.....
Not just W, there's loads of them. That's whay I keep away from those bbs.
I have charts on those shares so I know exactly where they're going but d*mned if I going to pre-warn the Trolls....stuff 'em....
shd post a W chart on that bb showing the sp hit zero .....but Tro's in it.. so that's a useless idea...........
I tried having a word but they aint picking up the phone....at all.........
Yes totally agree.....just always shite from them troll trotters...impho
Do u know why..they hang around with WRES....some badly do need help tho.......just gna have a word with Admin...needs sorting now.....and Trojan back,up n running again.....Kettle on...
Lang, I cldnt work it out either cos his history shows nothing wrong and he's the most laidback, amicable person on LSE that Ive come across......
LSE :Seriously need to rethink who you suspend....totally get it wrong every time.....the *crews* get to stay but the reasonable pis cant post objective views??
Utterly rubbish! :(
Lang, you mean Tro??
:((
Careful.....almost 40% spread; illiquid; few trades and being pumped shamelessly by the #UsualSuspects
AIMHO............ho hum....
We miss it....?
Low of 42 and now up ~9%
Morning Plumpy......blame Tro, he told us all last night, you're a whale....
Enjoy the w/e and the footie, make sure you dont get mistaken for the ball:)
Up another 20+% today....
I best get checking out Dunelm, IKEA and the likes, lol...
Hi guys, sorry couldn’t reply as my laptop was on the side of the bed and the big bowl of chips was in the way. Fifi at work now so had to role over on my front to get up to check the chat.
Enjoy weekend everyone, been busy with football as end of season but be around next week :)
To be fair the spread on FAB is always very wide .....but techs esp oscillators show overbought which is understandable seeing as it's gone from mid 0.2x to mid0.7x in 2-3 sessions....
RENE....darn....we missed that one all these months.....
mm wide spread u know they are gna drop it sooon...
Wldnt be touching at these levels personally....techs indicate very overbought.......imho plus wide spread....aimho...
Almost 2 bagged this week.............
In-cred-i-bleeeeuurgh.....
How the heck did none of us spot this gem over the last 4-6 months??
It's essentially 5+ bagged! Was going to do a trade this morn due to RNS but gapped up on open so not touching but wow re its rise since ~Dec....we're all numpties here:((
I blame Tro.
Armpits?? Yeeeuch...gonna have a peak over there in a wee while....see if Alan is still there with his gardening tips hehe...
Wassat bunged in an extra lot in the oven just for me, I take it??
VANL might produce an oppo if it drops.
I'll probs wus it and hit the golf course instead
Just reading a few posts on WRES...what does TROAJAN get involved with now...armpits...lol
Kettle on again....
Hoping Wassatt been making some LOVELY cakes for us ALL..........
You too Rag:)
Have a Fab day all :))