Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I did not see that coming, although it fits my summation that this CEO was too over confident in his predictions and therefore a poor captain of the ship. Typically expect the share price to fall significantly on this news.
I think it positive for the company, though I wonder what has triggered this. I suspect the over confident predictions on revenue are not coming to fruition. Maybe some lost contracts too. Time to research Chris and Paul.
General doctors surgeries have upped their digital frontdesks in the last few weeks. The ones in my area are all now offering full services through their websites using Patient Access. This wasn't the case until recently. Appointments, appointment management, prescription ordering. Its all there now. Theres no going back all appointments will be digital in no time.
I am of the opinion that my outlook carries a considerable margin of safety. I look at what I think a competitor would be prepared to pay for the business if it did not perform particularly well.
Do we think the current occasional sellers are MMs or people who think this is over valued at £21m. I welcome any perspectives to argue why this is a sell.
That seems reasonable. They need to deliver on something though. We will soon see whether zesty is appealing to hospitals with Oracle and System C.
The company could be valued over £100m if they reach the £30-35m ARR the CEO claims is doable in the annual report. I'll call over confidence on that now.
Here's a conservative scenario: video ARR declines over the next few years and is replaced with an increase in zesty ARR to maintain £15m ARR - a more reliable £15m ARR with less churn risk. The cost base settles around that, with 75% gross margin and something like 20% EBITDA. I could put a £33m/36p valuation on that conservative scenario. Then again, typical valuations on SaaS based on ARR multiples might value that same business at over £100m/110p.
60p min
its the last 18 months hadn't happened £1+
What would you value the company at, RazzaB?
"Overall I come to the conclusion that this business is undervalued based on the opportunities right now."
Of course it is. However... so is 98% of the market
The strategy to partner with the two computer systems that have almost half the acute hospital market is a good one as that gives them direct access to customers.
Gross profit margin should reach 75%. The patient platform will be more of a challenge to change suppliers than video software, thus giving a more reliable revenue base. The combined offer with video gives them a USP.
Over confidence will probably strike again and that is my primary concern with this business. I cannot make up my mind if the CEO is too optimistic with his passion for the business or if he knowingly over sells. Neither is good for investors. I will give him his due though, he does seem to know his business.
Nevertheless the INHC finds itself in the right place at the right time. The business looks well positioned as the zesty platform will almost certainly win more contracts and will almost certainly grow its % of total revenue within 1-2 years. The attend anywhere video will almost certainly be used by most hospitals over the next 1-2 years even if that declines over time.
Overall I come to the conclusion that this business is undervalued based on the opportunities right now.
I thought I would post my thoughts in case they are useful to anyone else.
CEO says "...so to be clear, we're gonna go from 16 where we are now to 40 in total, and we expect to be able to conclude those contracts in the next 12-18 months. How can he be sure? Smelling over confidence again.
CEO also talked about the INHC market share. I searched online and found that healthcare communications claim to be the market leader, 'The #1 patient engagement platform is contracted to 38 UK trusts and delivers digital appointment letters instantly to patient’s smartphones. Patients can access all appointment information from the palm of their hand, anytime and anywhere!' This company did not get a mention in the CEOs presentation. Can anyone reading this shed some light on the difference between INHC product and this? It sounds like the same thing as their zesty platform to this old dinosaur.
A little more online searching found that the healthcare communications promote east lancashire hospitals, who use Oracle Cerner, and United Lincolnshire hospitals, who use System C.
The partnership agreements that INHC have signed are non exclusive so presumably a hospital can choose any of the other suppliers, and have done so. It seems the CEO is counting his chickens before they've hatched.
System C gives them a link into 28 acute hospitals in the UK. The Oracle Cerner partnership covers 24 acute hospitals in the UK and 1 (that I could find) acute hospitals in Ireland.
I wonder if Oracle have signed similar partnership agreements elsewhere in the world. Website says they have over 2000 hospitals using the Cerner system and over 1000 are outside the US.
Oracle Cerner have a similar agreement with WELL Health / Artera so forget US expansion. Artera are rumoured to be heading for an IPO and so it quite possible that INHC would become a future takeover target.
I am not why the CEO said he still expects ARR of nearly £4m for the zesty platform by the end of FY23. The RNS said many of these expected contracts would now complete in FY24. It would be a remarkable achievement to go from over £1m at H1. Will this be an overconfident prediction too?
Cash position up to £9m from £7.5m at FY22 and expect to be £6m at FY23 instead of £10m in the guidance. That was over confident. Can we presuppose they are now burning £1.5m of cash annually?
CEO predicts to be cash positive by the end of FY24. Old CFO said the same for FY23 back in 2021. That was over confident. CFO leaving with one month notice after only a year into the job. CEO did not say much about him in the update. One could read all sorts into that.
LOL just checked the trades. 99% buys. Well done all who go these at this price.
Oh dear.
Great price if you believe in the aim of AIM though.
96% contract retention and market leading digital appointment software.
Well not the best start to the week, looking like 20p bid price at the open.
Director changes and deals pushed into next year are the culprits.
large cash burn due to pushing the products.
96% retention and multi-year contracts with the NHS bringing in the WONGA for sometime yet.
Im not too bothered, couple of buys and we'll be moving again hopefully they have a good RNS cooked and ready for release soon.
Good news about the cash burn if correct.
What do people think about the results? There was already an expectation of significant revenue increase with the acquisitions. It didn't take much selling (a couple of trades) to hammer the share price! Someone can correct me but I read the results as though it's really a £2m cash loss, which is better than last year. With £7m+ cash on the balance sheet, they can go for another 4 years if the cash burn stays the same. Do any of you expect it to have gone up in the last 6 months? Reading between the lines, I see them selling the low revenue software they have for clinical use to focus on the software for patient use. That'd bring in more cash. I don't know the products well enough to judge.
Got to come this week otherwise its December!
Wheres these results?!
The first of those was me. Happy to wake the mm's from their slumbers.
Good grief. I thought ETP was illiquid.
Two trades, 3 minutes after my post :-)
Moved the price up again though.
Hi RichWG & Johnnyy.
Seems we have the same positive expectations, but I also take heart from days like these when there’s no displayed trades but the market makers move their prices up, always a good sign.
I'd delay releasing any news as well with this sideshow of a government.... if not this week its got to be next! 95% retainment .... never known anything like it in business.
They've already indicated the results are going to be BELTING bonny lad. Fret not.
13martyn13
First post in almost 6 months, lifted my spirits somewhat, as I have been invested in these for a few years , watching them drop.
I hope your expectations are met, which may result in me breaking even or dare I hope for a bit of profit?