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GGG,
Nice to see that you are moving your base up from 11p to 15p - that's a very tasty 36% in 3 to 4 months.
1) "The SP will move up slowly on the same trajectory we've been on for some time." I would encourage people to look at the 6 month and 12 month chart - the trend is quite clearly up. 6 month gain 36%, 12 month gain 196% - is that slow ?
2) "I've said it a million times." - you have - is it not time to change the record ?
3) "Anyone wondering why the disconnect, which is greater than peer valuations, well it's because +350m shares were printed at 11p a few months ago." - this is rubbish - there is no disconnect - I would encourage people to take a look at the valuation charts published by Eric Nuttall on his twitter FEED.
4) "A few more 100-200 boepd wells in Canada may give us 0.5-1p, but certainly not enough to leave 15p behind." - This is rubbish, each 100 boepd will add $2m to Free Cash Flow - add two of these per month for the next year and we will be well over 20p.
5) "but the sp doesn't lie (nor did it last time)" - I agree - refer to points 1 and 3 above.
6) "And it's interesting that Doc feels the same way enough to disinvest from this company for the time being." - this is a lie - how about sticking to the facts, its true he's scaled back but he still holds i3e in his dividend portfolio - he's just removed it from his risk portfolio. If you think that he's made the right call perhaps you should follow suit and save everyone the earache.
I've said it a million times. The SP will move up slowly on the same trajectory we've been on for some time. The only thing that will change this is the f/o. It will provide us with an immediate re-rate (my estimate 3-5p) and then we'll continue to climb slowly into the drilling of the Nth Sea wells. I think by the time we spud the first well in the Nth Sea we'll be in the 20-22p range (with oil and gas prices staying relatively buoyant). A few more 100-200 boepd wells in Canada may give us 0.5-1p, but certainly not enough to leave 15p behind. Anyone wondering why the disconnect, which is greater than peer valuations, well it's because +350m shares were printed at 11p a few months ago. The same reason I've been giving since it happened. Painful to watch other stocks re-rate on current oil and gas prices over the past 3 months but this is the cost of doing a mega-placing to fund the recent acquisition. Others disagreed at the time and still now, but the sp doesn't lie (nor did it last time). And it's interesting that Doc feels the same way enough to disinvest from this company for the time being. Clearly he understands what's happened as well. Hopefully some good news on the f/o in the coming weeks and we can get half way to fair value pre-Xmas. Either that or they can start buying back shares as we haven't heard much in the way of drilling lately. I'm hoping this is because they know they'll need $25m to fully drill the Nth Sea in the new year and are looking toward deploying 'company maker' cash whilst maintaining a high level of ownership (+40%) of these assets. As always patience required here. GLA
Nomad,
I think your wrong on Doc - he's not a trader - he promotes what he believes in and backs it to the hilt. If you look at EMO for example - he shared his research widely when it was $0.45 (CAD) and has continued to buy even very recently up to $1.80 or higher well after he shared his research with a wider public. He's done the same with GASX - he has been promoting this for quite some time and was still buying yesterday.
With i3e he's just taken the view that it wont grow quite a quick as the above and scaled back a little to redeploy cash into his higher conviction bets. Personally i'm still very bullish i3e although it may or may not grow at the same rate as EMO or GASX.
Doc Jones is a trader, he ramps what he wants to sell. Fair enough if you follow his trades you can also make money. I used to do this with David Lenigas and it worked very well but it’s not the life for me anymore.
It’s funny how negative this forum is after only two to three weeks of a minor correction. Look at the year chart, it’s extremely strong and will continue to do so. There will be another break to the top soon.
Hi Tony, I have to say I did the same witht he view that i am have the potentail to reivenst back here if not much movment is happening but we will see how everything all works out, still have shares here and still think we have good potential just make take a bit longer.
Ark87,
To be more accurate - he did not say he was "largely out of i3e" - he said he's removed it out of his risk portfolio though still holds it in his dividend portfolio. He also said that he may review that at some point in the future.
I agree with your other comments - he does appear to have the ability to find interesting stocks - I bought into GASX.
The guy prints money gotta give him credit . GASX 50%+ up since he declared hes mostly out of I3E and EMO up another 100% in last 4 weeks.