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Ah, but once the pendulum swings (which it may well before CMD) then things can get hyped and ramped by the same bunch of henchmen trawling this BB for the last few weeks. They'll become the cheerleaders soon enough.
Didn't read about the giant squid in an rns, it's got coronavirus as well! that's not good
Bring back the days of holding paper share certificates, no internet, no online dealing, we would be at £1.50 now if we could just rid ourselves of the automated Bot Trader.
CS. I agree they will come up with a plan. I think we agree it should be focussed on Lancaster, Reserves and production. My point was that any realistic estimate of EPS needs to have some idea of the plan!
And as I’ve said I also agree that sentiment has played a part in the SP fall!
WWN - It is not just longwait's desire to see HUR succeed. The company have a vested interest too!
The haven't come so far - to say ok there's a bit of perched water and a giant squid which probably has coronavirus - lets call it a day.
They had already looked at all possible permutations as part of their risk assessment. Plans will have to be changed for sure - but that is any business.
wwn
"CS. You know my view of reservoir risk and how IMHO it is simply based on HURs model as published in the CPR. Most people on here profess to believe almost religiously everything that HUR says - but not in this case where you prefer unspecified and unexplainable market forces!!!"
the issue is that the market's view of the SP is complicated . I have stated numerous times that HUR suffered the perfect storm - poor drill results (I don't share LW's view) , brexit and election , xmas holidays , possible long wait with no news until CMD, Corona virus, price of oil etc etc. panic compounded by drop in SP was exasperated by continued artlcles / posts only looking at the negative permutations..which sets more panic etc etc. I believe the SP is more a result of sentiment brought about by market forces rather than the current position - which on the face of it is the potential loss of an exploration field and maybe the partner in that field. since it had little value given to it the drop has to be questioned.
I don't know enough about shorting and arbitrage and spoofing and layering - but it seems that might have played into some people's hands.
So the plan was to have a stock of 3 horizontal producers in 2019. And then 3 more in 2020 ready for FID and a fast-track to I think 500m barrels (from memory) of reserve.
Whereas now they have been busy replanning.
Whilst I actually don't think we're that far apart on some aspects, I think your desire to see HUR succeed is clouding any objectivity.
I don't know whether your last post was a mis-send, but I wasn't joking.
I'm reminded of what Double said about the water cut scare: people didn't understand the issue and were panicking about nothing.
One journalist described the GWA 3-drill campaign as a failure; it was not: one well flowed at 9,800 bopd.
Some people have described another well as a duster, even though it flowed oil.
So your estimate is currently baseless because there is no plan as yet. When a new plan is published (and let’s hope that they do it when they announce 2020 plans) we can then work out how realistic it is.
And tell me you are joking when you say the ‘GWA results were good and didn’t affects HUR’s aspiration at all’. Seriously?
I wasn't joking.
So your estimate is baseless because there is no plan as yet. When a new plan is published (and let’s hope that they do it when they announce 2020 plans) we can then work out how realistic it is.
And tell me you are joking when you say the ‘GWA results were good and didn’t affects HUR’s aspiration at all’. Seriously?
I'm not a member of the BOD.
I suggest you wait for the CMD.
Ok. Tell me the plan to get to 40k by 2022.
'All you've heard is an aspiration that was knocked off track by GWA results...'
That's not true.
There has been a setback with being able to start production from LC, but the GWA results were good and didn't affect HUR's aspirations at all.
Reading your posts is rather like reading Jamie Ashcroft's article.
That's right.
I assume it will happen until and unless it is proven not to have happened, because RT and his colleagues know what they are doing and that's how they have been able to produce oil for nearly nine months and increase production too.
With all the prospects, they can find ways to increase production again.
Or do you think in 2022, we'll still be here with a SP of 15p and production of 12,500 bopd?
And you haven't heard a plan for 40k barrels per day. How many wells? Which field? Who pays? Tie-backs? WOSP? All you've heard is an aspiration that was knocked off track by GWA results and you simply assume it will happen!
"I'll go back to where I started - it's good to have debate the positive and negative rather than simply mindlessly ramp, de-ramp......or defend your position no matter what."
That is the best what i read here today, especially last few words, simply gist.
;o),
'it's too much of a leap for me to simply assume everything goes right and production hits 40k in 2022.'
{WWN)
I assume everything is going right unless and until I hear otherwise.
We haven't heard that production was halted because there was no oil left; that BP won't buy any more oil from HUR because DSPP examined the barrels on their behalf and found them to be full of water; we haven't heard that the planned 50 percent increase in production has not taken place; we haven't heard that the EPS has been abandoned because it couldn't last nine months.
LW. I guessed that. But you're making a whole host of assumptions about what HUR will and won't do. Given the company do not even have a 2020 drilling plan it's too much of a leap for me to simply assume everything goes right and production hits 40k in 2022. Over-optimism with the GWA has been part of the problem.
CS. You know my view of reservoir risk and how IMHO it is simply based on HURs model as published in the CPR. Most people on here profess to believe almost religiously everything that HUR says - but not in this case where you prefer unspecified and unexplainable market forces!!
Anyway, that me done for today. I'll go back to where I started - it's good to have debate the positive and negative rather than simply mindlessly ramp, de-ramp......or defend your position no matter what.
2C reserves can only move to 2P reserves WHEN a credible plan and finance is available, that is at FID/FFD phase 1!!
I think everyone is in agreement that 2P reserves need to be increased - from memory it is over 450 mboe of 2c - hopefully the data accumulated over the last 9 months will do that.
Halifax is still there in the background with huge potential.
All future potential has been discounted to zero at present!!
The market is only valuing the early production system on the basis of 2P reserves of 37mboe on 6 year life and zippo for everything else! So if 2P reserves are valued at $15\bbl that equates to sp of 21p.
A 10 year life would be +67% = 35p
So 15p is undervaluing, but only by 30%.
'Edison forecast 11.3 cents EPS for 2021 or about 8.5p.'
(WWN)
Is that based on 20 kbopd?
My estimate of 15p EPS is based on an estimated 40 kbopd in 2022/3
wwn - I agree with longwait on market forces v reservoir risk - as the issue of resrvoir risk was always there. Confirmation of longetivity is what ultimately we have been waiting on since first oil. the length of production and volume should if anything have given confidence and supported share price not decimated it.