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oops that meant to say Windfall Tax, eyes are going as been at work all night
I am such a muppet
The EPL will be priced into the share price so unless the board do something to eliminate it or the Govt adjust the EPL in anyway the money is toast
Slightly off the standard line of thought, why would the board not look at investing in renewables as well. That way getting a foot into the other market.
Lots of off-shore floating wind farms being planned in Cornwall - where it always blows
EPL isn't going to cease to exist regardless of who is voted into the position of PM, as it would be political suicide and the party would lose what little trust it has left with the electorate. Truss has stated that she doesn't intend to extend to other sectors such as energy suppliers, not that she intends to cancel it. It is unlikely to be materially changed to exclude small producers either, as that would be seen as favouritism.
It is for this reason that I have reduced my holding in HUR.
I wouldn't put it past this shambles of a government to raise windfall taxes more. If Starmer had his way I would expect some sort of force majeure Jeremy-through-the-back-door nationalisation. The tory government aren't that much better, to be brutally honest. This is the least fiscally responsible conservative government I think I've ever seen.
Senseman ~“given EPL importance, hard to see any 'plan' decisions being made/announced before then. Also hard to see, if any commercial deal/partnership/buyout being considered (incl CA share sale), anything being signed before then. Other party would argue EPL exists, HUR and/or CA would argue it may disappear. Values in 2 different scenarios materially different so how could a deal be agreed before clarity”
Absolutely agree Senseman.
I would say your glass half-full involves considerable upside forward thinking and open to a myriad of political events which could seriously skew the situation - a fair assessment if you’re an optimist.
Today’s value based on current situation ( see my previous post) is somewhere between
5.4p low (HUR BOD / ERCE conjecture) which might be a little negative, or:
7.5p mid - 9p high (My valuation (See previous post).
The problem for the immediate new PM is to remain electable, so any noises from Sir Kia Starmer will have to be addressed given the current situation.
There is some solace in todays financial debate BBC Radio4 06.15 around Energy Levy, that small North Sea Oil companies might be spared from more draconian taxes. However we must also assume that the climate debate is going to rage on in the coming weeks and months.
The upshot of all this is that the future of HUR has become utterly marred by politics.
Truss will be PM 5 Sept & next election Jan 25 as Tories need as long as poss to turn things around for reelection.
Addressing energy/ EPL will be unwanted unavoidable political priority so clarity should be by end Sept.
Given EPL importance, hard to see any 'plan' decisions being made/announced before then. Also hard to see, if any commercial deal/partnership/buyout being considered (incl CA share sale), anything being signed before then. Other party would argue EPL exists, HUR and/or CA would argue it may disappear. Values in 2 different scenarios materially different so how could a deal be agreed before clarity.
$111 a barrel July offload was great. Better Brent weakness now as 2 months to recover to $110. We're doing OK. Remember If 7p cash by end Dec and still no 'deal', Jan 23 makes it harder for commercial buyer to argue 2023 production cash should not be included in valuation. 7p + 6 p + 6p tax credit value = 19p. One might argue 2023 cash 'risk' is nullified/discounted as fair quid pro quo for likely 2024 production cash + acreage (P8 or other decision) benefit. It's easy to see how 6 months more problem free production strengthens HUR's position greatly.
A financial low risk (for HUR) new drill or smart low risk acquisition would (should) put HUR in different SP above 19p.
I am of course a glass half-full guy. Just my musings.
Poor tango needs cash, well tango your not getting mine and make sure your spelling is correct before posting tango as it gives you 0 % credibility.
Are you for real? Sir K is Leader of Her Majesty's Opposition and not PM! Poorest bit of attempted deramping I have ever seen. 5 Year olds could do better.
The city must be really worried look BP no change even with oil down today!! You people do make me laugh you must try a little bit harder
Well he’s not getting into Power any time soon if ever! so no need to worry is there! Let’s worry about who gets in next as the current leader shall we and there policy!
Keir Starmer calls for extra tax on oil and gas producers (bbc news)
Could be big trouble for the likes of Hur! What would be the impact to the share price if this was intrudced by the govt?
Another £8bn would come from the Tories’ windfall tax on oil and gas producers. Labour would backdate it to January and axe an “absurd loophole” that lets firms claim tax relief on 91% of reinvested profits.