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Would be more likely an offer from Boels Rental
He loves the HSS model here, he takes pictures of the depots when he travels over here!!!
You are probably right, but say Speedy were to make a bid, wouldn't they try to seduce the two major shareholders (61%)with a number of sweeteners to secure a deal?
All conjecture on my part, but this scenario has been mooted for years with no result!
It's hard to say what the intentions of the major shareholders are. They have sat by idly while the share price has been destroyed so they seem to be very patient and supportive of management's transformation plan. There is no way the major holders will let this go to an outsider on the cheap and I think if it was an inside job something would have happened by now. My guess is that they would be willing to hold on to this for a few more years and sell when the market has recognised the value and a higher SP makes a takeover easier to swallow.
It's easier to focus on how cheap the company is right now and that despite all the positive change the SP is languishing. I've spent quite a few hours crunching numbers and reading through all the news and it really does seem to be a strange anomaly.
Volume and price action today would certainly confirm this. Will it now return to the 25p level which it was previously? Need to review the Broker targets after the last set of figures as they were pretty positive too.
Ragnar what are your thoughts about this new becoming a prime takeover target?
Even if Tosca do lob the lot, Exponent still own 33.8% and Ravensworth 27.5% so not sure how that would all play out.
Just looked in here, certainly some chunky trades .
Nice to see a rise.
Gla
120m shares moved today and suddenly jumped to 17p to sell must be something happening
A whole lot of chunky trades again today. Over 70m shares going through between yesterday and today so far. Tosca had around 83m at last count so perhaps a push to dispose of the lot. Tosca must be licking their wounds over this one. Be interesting to see who is taking them on, hopefully we see a more diverse and attractive share register soon. The 80% overhang is really holding this back
Thanks a lot for this, v helpful. I have bought in here. Have we seen the bottom????
Yep, that's 2 whopping sales. A TR1 in the next couple of days could clear the way for a substantial rise with 3 months to go before the next update.
Two big sells plus some unknown!
Also lots of tidy buys today..
Let's hope we're are closer to seller leaving the party, then we can move North
Gla
Seller could be out here leaving it ready for a rise back to 25p for starters.
Even more confused to see some buys increase by 1, i.e, 90, 91, 92, 93...now at 100!!!!
Trades appearing today, again.
Lots of 1, 88, 89 etc but/sells!!!!
Confused.com
Gla
While Toscafund are up on the rights issue they have been in since the IPO and watched the value of their investment decline by more than 90% since then. Toscafund has held stakes in HSS and Speedy for many years, attempting to influence the two to merge. It seems they have failed so are looking to exit HSS. I've picked up a few of their shares, I think anything below 15p presents irresistible value.
Top holders now look like this, less than 18% free float available
Exponent 33.8% 15/12/2020
Ravensworth 27.5% 27/10/2021
Toscafund 11.84% 30/12/2021
CIP Merchant Capital 3.6% 29/3/2021
Hestia 5.6% 28/10/2021
So Toscafund have sold down from 22.4% in October to 11.84% now. Latest announcement is for a disposal of 12,628,254 shares, or 0.95% of the capital from 12.79 to 11.84% Recent disposals seem to have been dispersed into the market, hence the pressure on the share price. Tosca are in the money having picked up shares in the 10p rights issue but once they have sold it may that the PIs who are picking up these ex-Tosca shares will have the last laugh. If it is PIs picking uo the shares then another benefir is that the free float is increasing as Tosca sells. Not totally out of the woods yet: Tosca may want to get rid of the rest of their holding so will be selling into any rise but there is some light at the end of tunnel and it will be nice when the selling pressure has finally gone.
There is less than 80% free float. Doesn't take much to move the price either way. My guess is sellers dumping into low liquidity. Theres pretty much no broker coverage or consensus that I can see and the SP is falling. Not much to interest your average punter.
2021 H1 EPS = 1.61p. If we say 2022 is a similar year then 2022 EPS = 1.6 x 2 = 3.2p
However, interest reduced from £15m p.a to £3m under the recent refinancing. £12m in pre tax tax savings = EPS of 1.3p
My 2022 EPS is therefore 3.2 + 1.3 = 4.5p = a P/E of around 3x on a price of 14p. Also consider:
- Net debt of less than 1x EBITDA. Probably debt free by 2023
- Free cash flow > £50m
- Margins are rising
It hurts when the SP continues to decline but sometimes you need to trust your research and look ahead. The share price is the only thing about this business which is in a negative trend
Hi, I'm having a look at this to buy into. Read 30/9 results, which are impressive. SP slipped a long way since then though and can't see an obvious reason why. What's the thinking as to why?
Considering all the accomplishments of the company over the last year it's surprising the SP is at this level. Liquidity has been poor as usual and there is a pretty good chance that HPS is trying to offload its shares. And maybe Tosca as well.
After the sale of All Season net debt is at 1x EBITDA, which is at the bottom end of their target 1-1.5x. Free cash flow was £29m for only 6 months in H121. Current Mcap is £100m. Only paying out £10m is easily achievable and would support a yield of 10% and allow some upgrading of their fleet, which I'm guessing is probably overdue with the focus on reducing net debt throughout the pandemic.
I've been been adding here recently, its trading at a significant discount to Speedy which is unwarranted and I'm expecting some chunky cash returns next year
Lower lows followed by lower lows.
Well hopefully today ending as a blue day is a change of direction for the SP.
Fingers crossed.
Gla
I also think TOSCA are continuing to dump stock which is further depressing the SP. Its hard to say what's fair value for this stock but 16p does seem cheap when reflecting on last years results and the progress that has been made on the new business model as well as further reducing debt and rearranging the balance on more favourable terms.
TR1s will come and go and the next update is due in April. I expect the SP will have recovered somewhere in the low to mid 20s by then.
Been watching this one for a while...company updates look very good yet the SP the opposite.
TOSCA I assume are selling at any price hence the SP has a hole below the waterline. Often these situations are an opportunity rather than a concern (well for new investors anyway!).
Tempted to add here on this potentially temporary weakness but would like to hear current holders thoughts! With the refinancing done (and excluding the one off cost) we should see another £10m drop to the bottom line for a EPS of about 5p, is that assumption about right so we are looking at a forward valuation of 3x earnings?!? For a company that looks to have sorted it's shxt out and appears confident in it's growth path from here this looks a rather fine bargain.
Always hard to catch the falling knife though....
Castle...
Imo it does not matter what time of day, or how red or blue the trades are, we are heading South!!!
Wtf
Gla
Wanderer
Brill
Time will tell