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The real question here is - how much will we get when Danaher buy GDR........ they own Beckman already, they also own Cytiva ( who make the beads)
What’s the calculation for an acquisitions based on mcap?
Just read an article in the independent from December. The federal government sent out 100million PCR tests in December but they were not used or reported on in a consistent fashion. Our output will be absorbed in to this without so much as a bat of an eyelid. So many places will be tested repeatedly for a long time. Over 100,000 tests per day wont touch the sides. Government and state level contracts could easily be possible at which point all bets are off.
Targa time indeed... Go nicely with my Touareg which arrives end of March.
Big Bench - Airport testing lol. Now there's an idea that was floated last April.
Not long now buddy! kick off time could be Targa time :)
What many are forgetting is that many frontline staff are having multiple tests...it's nit just one test per person as they work through the population..I have a primary school teacher friend who gets tested twice a week every week! imagine all the nurses/ care home staff/ teachers/ uni staff/ and employers who want their staff tested regularly .... That's before we look at the Airlines & Airport around the globe.. ( about 17'600 airports all in) and the repeat flyers which the Airlines want tested.. It will be way more than the 7.3billion world population number...probably more than 100billion tests over the next year or two...they will be crying out for Automation!!!!!
Correction:-
As I said in my post, I believe the Quantities of 550,000 PCR Tests/day are on the 'Very Conservative Side' !!
SHOULD READ 50,000 NOT 550,000 PCR TESTS/DAY -SORRY MUST HAVE BEEN A 'Freudian slip' ?!!! LOL
Hi Bighammer,
Db has stated the 60% Profit margin, several times, and he has also confirmed that the Valuations he expects from the partnership with BC has been agreed with BC !!!
As I said in my post, I believe the Quantities of 550,000 PCR Tests/day are on the 'Very Conservative Side' !!
Cytiva have said they can produce 10,000 Tests/hr, and that they can at least double this quantity through doubling up Manufacturing Equipment !!!
Guys, please put your own No's of PCR Tests, we can sell/day into the calculation, and see what GDR SP you come up with? !!
As Db said the No's are Staggering !!!!
Great Times Ahead for All GDR Shareholders !!!
Preetfy
where do those BC numbers come from please?
Thanks
Big Al, i love your figures but the onr thing that does concern me is the 60% profit , i have not seen any deal confirmed with BC on what they will want but i feel they may want a bigger slice of the pie if they are going to be doing the selling as well , has anything been confirmed????
Based on what i know so far i already have some top slice figures in my head , ie first slice to clear debts and then a few more at a £ increments from £3 and leave some on the table at the end but this could well change depending on what news and sales figures come out .
I will never get the top sell price so i wont even try but by selling it will give me the cash return and profit we all want and thus giving me more funds for other investments or to buy back in on any retraces where as at the minute i am not brave enough to do it now as we have only just begun our potential.
Great Times Ahead for All GDR Shareholders, we have so much Great News coming our way:-
GDR Valuation of COVID Tests:
Extract from my post on 12th Sept: - GDR V ery Conservative Potential: -
I believe that GDR Mcap is potentially worth £300 mil Mcap, based on projected Sales and Profit.
I expect GDR to sell 50,000 RT-PCR Test units/day at £10 per Test = £500,000 per day revenue at 60% profit margin = £300,000 per day profit.
Working on a 5 day week = 5 x £300,000 = £1,500,000 profit per week.
£1,500,000 x 50 wks per year = £75,000,000 profit per year.
Using a standard multiple of 4 for valuation = 4 x £75,000,000 = Mcap of £300,000,000
Mcap of £300,000,000 divided by 52,000,000 shares = a potential SP of £5.77p
Taking into consideration BGF conversion of their Loan Note to Shares, means our Total Share in Market will rise to 64,000,000 Shares (Actually Less Shares than used here).
Therefore = £300,000,000 divided by 64,000,000 shares = a potential £4.68p SP !
This Mcap valuation does not take into consideration a valuation of our POC; HCV. DOD or AIHL etc
Africa; India and USA are our Targeted Markets, and this is why DB has cleverly chosen these markets:
Population of Africa 2020 = 1,348,301,517
Population of India 2020 = 1,380,004,385
Population of USA 2020 = 331,000,000
The recent Beckman Coulter Distribution Agreement brings Europe back into a Targeted Market too !!
Population of Europe 2021 = 747,928,877
Massive new cases and deaths in Africa; India and USA, and these Countries will need GDR/BC Tests !
COVID Tests will be with us for many years to come, way past COVID Vaccine World wide availability, IMHO.
Great Times Ahead for All GDR Shareholders !!!
Preefty I’m a bit confused on your maths?
You think a billion is a bit much but 1.6m tests a day is too low?
If we do 1.6m tests a day for 100 days that’s a 160million tests ? And at £10 a tests that 1.6 billion. Even with a large discount would be over a billion.
I’m genuinely asking not trying to dig you out as I feel your in this for the longer haul and put good posts
Well one lab on 2 x 8 hour shift is 160,000 tests per day, the way bc are promoting this they could have anything from 10-100 labs. I prob would have said they have at least 10, which would be 1.6 million tests per day
As discussed without ramping £5 would be just the start of where this can go, personally would only be topslicing at this price. Call me a ramper or crazy , but if we get over a billion pound contract so around 150 million tests. this will clear £30 easy. Remember ncyt went to £12 on a £150 million contract remember that. £5 would be nothing.
In 6,55957 months according to my crystal ball.
I’m thinking August, it’s my birthday and I would like a taycan ty :)
No I seriously think that’s when we should have the affects of our main Sales contracts and POC and hopefully AIHL, I really want to time this right and hope the experienced on here will help guide us newbies somewhat. I really like this share and co but I hold a small amount so hope we get to £10 based on what we have to offer we should get to that easily, but inevitably we will get absorbed by Danaher IMO and hope we can get to a decent SP before that. I would probably sell my holding as I think ones we get to a peak a may drift back and as I mentioned my holding is relatively small so top slicing I think wouldn’t be that fruitful lol
GLA and hope wealth prosperity and most of all health for all
It's heartening when you think the GDR test has a potential worldwide market (7.8 billion)
I think a million a month does not even scratch the surface of what is going to happen. There are 350 million people in usa and we would only be providing 12m tests a year? That wouldn’t even make a difference. I think we will be several million tests a week. So let’s say 2m tests a week that 8 a month so 96 million a year. Still no where near there population size and bare in mind people could be having well over 3/4 tests a year if they want to travel, sports events , protection of family ect
Bigbench- any day now I hope. Hopefully next week we get some news on something. Really is an exciting company/share to be in
If the million a month number is accurate I can see £5 being knocked out the park in the weeks & months ahead.
I am hoping for £5.11 and I'm off.
GLA
Love it Yus Yus!!!!
Difficult question, how many have been massively in the RED and FOMO has kicked in and scared to sell just in case or cutting of nose to spite your face .
Works exactly the same when in profit and if many are looking at Novacyt as a comparison perhaps they will become transfixed by Nocacyts previous historical prices rather than Genedrives’s?
At a lady Godiva (£5) I will have no debt a nice apartment to buy and rent out and a good jag xj 3.0 portfolio 2016ish so Autotrader may be a determining factor for my own hopeful exit ( the irony of counting chickens before they are hatched is not wasted on me either )
So if the apartment is on Rightmove and the car on Autotrader then that might be my exit signal .
Edit just found a BMW X5 40d nearby so it’s now an exit of £5.50 , I dare not look at a Maserati Ghibli etc
Some outstanding sleuth work out there , just remember
1/ Hindsight is an amazing thing
2/ Pharmaceutical type shares are very much in the Zeitgeist of the moment and ICE and OIL may again rule the Roost
3/ It’s Only a profit once banked
4/ Myself I intend to leave the AIM shares Casino soon and play safe with Funds and watch my bets over a longer and safer race .
Fingers crossed for a Nice RNS putting flesh on the bones ( a week Monday so Fridays pay can be invested )
Stephen11
No worries. Like you said there’s more than the covid play with GDR so anything could happen. I’m getting married next year so my top slice will be paying for that and a new kitchen. It just needs to hit £5 now. Hopefully it will in the next few months
Thanks Northeast,
Wise words. With all the other innovations GDR have (apart from COVID offering) I am looking at GDR as a long term hold. That said I would like to topslice some cash this year.
GL everyone.