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If you're there wyn, does the chart for Abingdon show any promise? They have a new (saliva) pregnancy test out soon.
I sold my ISA abingdon without remembering that I'd also go a very small number in my SIPP. I might add to them as otherwise they aren't worth selling..
Morning D.
Right now abigdon has got a double top in place at 7p. However its a log way from being triggered but some may have take profit as it reached a recent high. the importnat buying signal will be if/when it brakes 7p
You might have noticed the RSI was 80 at 7p. If it continues to fall and you are bullish than a target of 6.25p would be the obvious place to buy some on the gamble it will rise, but the "safer" option is to wait and see if 7p is broken.
I tend to use the half and half strategy if I think a share is retracing rather than falling.
So I would add half my new funds at 6.25p and the other half at 7p plus. But thats me and not meant to be advice.
All the best
Good morning Wyn, many thanks for that. I hadn't checked RSI but the graph shows higher-highs etc. I will look at the RSI in the days ahead.
On Friday I sold 1/3 of my SNG as the RSI reached 90 and I recall you saying 90 is a definite flag. I was a bit nervous this morning but so far, so good. Because of the spread I still can't quite get back what I sold but it's heading that way.
Can you just clarify what setting you judge RSI? Is it with the chart on the day or week, and then the hourly or 15 minutes etc? SNG was clearly overbought after 2 days of rises so it was pretty clear but often the RSI results change quite a bit on the setting.
AVCT doing well at the moment :-)
Just bought SNG back with the money from Friday. Just over 500 'free' shares, thanks to RSI..
Hi D, I use the rsi based on the time frame I am using.
On stocks I expect to hold for several days and weeks and sometimes months, I use longer timed charts
As a result these longer time frames means on HL I use the 12 month charts and for a bit more clarity the 3 month charts (same info, but sometimes easier to read on the 3 month), with the RSI overlaid. Easy to see support and resistance levels.
The only time I use the week or day chart is if I am looking to get back in on a retrace and don't want to wait for a closing price .
An example would be say, ABDX falls to 6.25p intra day and I buy there because it may then move during the day and finish back at 7p or higher at close.
My indicator of a successful trade is when I buy it does not fall from there, even if it then goes back up.
So I am not looking or expecting to get in at the very bottom, but when I do buy , my trade never goes into negative territory at all.
So far AVCT at 111p for instance is a good example as was my purchase at 133p last week.
'So I am not looking or expecting to get in at the very bottom, but when I do buy , my trade never goes into negative territory at all.'
I think I will have to work towards that. The fact I'm not there is because I can't detach myself from the company. I probably should have moved the SNG money elsewhere but I'm just glad to have more than when I started..
I did buy some AVCT at 109 (with money I wasn't prepared to lose) so I sold them too early at 119 or thereabouts which I was pleased with at the time. Then used the money to pay off some of a mortgage where interest cost is 6%.
II think you are right about getting small amounts of profit. It seems to work and they will all add up.
Hi again D,
Know where to get is the first part of the trade. The second part is knowing where to get out.
You can work that to what suits you but a couple of example might be a fixed profit rise, say 10% or waiting for a particualr SP to be reached.
If you decide on a SP value as to when to sell then there should be a logic as to why you think it will get there as opposed to it being just an arbitary number.
This is important as using TA, there will be trades that don't work out so its important to max the profits and minimise the losses.
The inexperienced or poor trader will take profit too early and allow losses to run to far.
Typically, but as I say not universally, if a support level is seen as an entry point then a fall below that level should trigger a stop for a small loss. Before entering the trade an exit price to the the next resistance point would be a logical target.
The risk reward ration should always be AT LEAST 3-1.
(EG you buy at 100p with a stop loss at 95p and a target of 115p, (risk 5p,gain 15p therefore 3-1) But these figures should be based on what has happened previously and not just plucked from the air.
Money management is critical if using TA which is why you never bet with more than you can comfortably afford to lose so that whatever decision you feel you have to make you are neither concerned about the loss or that the gain will make you greedy for more.
Sorry, Should have said at the top:
"Knowing where to get in is the first part of the trade. The second part is knowing where to get out."
Hi D, when you said earlier ".... I can't detach myself from the company." thats very normal and usual.
I broke the link when I was day trading just one product. (10 year bond futures). I might trade up to 6 or 7 times a day and I could short as well as go long. I over traded like crazy (rookie error) but quite soon the product itself was irrelevant, it was just moving numbers so I became detached from the instrumwent itself.
Thats one of the "risks" of these BB's. As they are all to some degree or other just echo chambers, it is very easy to get caught up in the positive-only outcome and as a result it makes the selling much harder as you always think more is to come and ignore what is right in front of your eyes.
I know I take some stick on the AVCT BB, but if you had never heard of the company and someone told you about it now, with your experience of say SNG and AGL as bio-techs with great promise but have failed to deliver SP gains, then you might look at its actual history and think this is just another company that misses deadlines and fails to deliver in spier of what seems, great tech.
However we know what we know and it therefore can be hard to be dispassionate, but that is ultimately Fear and Greed driving the "rational" thinking process out the window.
So its hard, very hard, but the first step is to bet so small the result is irrelevant and that way you can stick to "the plan" to see if it does in fact yield results.
So, pick a trade with a stop and a target price and don't sell until the stop or target price is triggered, however long it takes. Just make sure these prices have a rationale behind them.
Evening Wyn, almost everyone on these boards stay with companies as they feel they know them. Research in the bank as it were so sticking with what's known as opposed to the unknown. I knew nothing of Music Magpie when Yanis mentioned it and it was around 10p so chose to keep my limited resources where they were. Having said that, I think it possible to make money on almost any company as you did with eve, even while it was going bust. That's why I hang on to SNG as it could be they get onto strive and hey presto. And even if they don't, maybe I can increase my holding and then get some out, even at a loss but a smaller loss than present. When it was going down I sold ABDX for around 6p and was glad I had when it went to 4p but had I waited, I'd be actually a little better off (on paper) today. I think that money went to AVCT so hopefully will ultimately do better there so no worries.
As for your thoughts on picking a trade with a stop and a higher target I hope to do that with WOSG. I'm due a bit of tax relief on my SIPP. I fully intend to put it into WOSG and then do what I did last time. Incidentally, I claimed a 30% profit last time on WOSG but that was an innocent error as it was actually 20% but with a £30 on the end of the profit – which probably makes no sense at all!
I am more-or-less sticking to my no-new-money rule. As I did with AVCT I may still temporarily buy more but then sell for a small profit. There are times (such as when you mentioned 109 / 111p looked to be a good time to buy) when a share really is VERY likely to rise so I'll try and take those chances, but not on things that are too risky. Look at NNN today; big rise but way too risky.
One day (and it could be a quite a while) things will generally go back up again and I hope I am still here as an investor to take advantage. It should be easier in a rising market than it is today!
just had a re-look today at ABDX. After a small retrace it broke through 7p and has held at 8p for a little while.
RSI is quite high so maybe a fall back to 7p but if it did I would think that would attract buyers. 9.75p looks like a target to me, so good risk reward anywhere below current 8p I think?
Interesting analysis on ABDX. It seems Angle dropping quite a lot today, not sure how much further it will fall. What's your take?
It could fall a bit more CI, (21p-23p) but I thought around this price it was worth the punt
(Sometimes the actual precise figure is not hit so its always a judgement as to when to get in. )
hope you are still in this D, big jump over the last few sessions.
(Be a riot if AVCT did put a bid in!)
Hi Wyn,
Sorry I didn't check eve in the evening but visited during the day ALMOST mentioned IQ-AI yesterday!
No, I sold my ABDX a while ago... Except for a few £s worth in my pension. I was tempted to get back in before the rise on news of the saliva test but my 'no new money' rule is a problem.
I see it has fallen back today but anything could happen and I need to add to my ABDX in my pension or I can never take it out; not worth the selling fee.
Are you planning to hold ABDX and see how it goes?
PS ABDX rise shows how I'd feel if SNG suddenly went up steeply.
IQ-AI ran out of steam today too but I think something is brewing there.
yes I think ABDX looks good over the next 6 months to see if their materially better 2nd half comes off.
Short of adding more funds I am happy where money is at the moment and might actually have to sit on my hands for a while.
Hopefully a bit more predictable movement from next week on my portfolio as it feels the market has pretty much been on holiday for the last 2 weeks and the moves have been just small time players.
Harl is creeping up and could be described as at an "inflection point"... (where have I heard that before?) So next week should be interesting. (well, to be less opaque I think there will be positive SP movement)
Anyway, hope you have a nice weekend :0))
'Anyway, hope you have a nice weekend :0))'
Thank Wyn, you too!
(Our Street Party is on Sunday and looks like the best day.. )