Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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FSP is the equivalent of a for sale board. Testing the water in other words hoping for an offer. Usually for businesses that are in trouble or want strategic change. Look at Renishaw, founders and largest shareholders are over 80.
A genuine bid situation is something completely different and we are not there yet.
they don't want to mine and probably can't do it to full potential. OMG wtf
The FSP is a get out for the bod, bidders and the market know this lololololololololol
Wet myself sorry brb
The FSP is a get out for the BOD, what utter nonsense. Buyers approach EUA, not the other way round.
Exactly compared to less then 1p the current price is like a jackpot for the bod. In reality, they don't want to mine and probably can't do it to full potential.
The FSP is a get out for the bod, bidders and the market know this so is probably also a reason why the share price is held back.
Any valuation we do as outsiders will be conservative, one stand out reason is the WK DFS for example, they have those specific details and we don't. Any resource upgrade figures for MT are the same, but it's a good thing, because what logically follows is a deal price which is superior to most conservatively done valuations.
GLA
'3 bagger' is from our perspective only, at this price. The directors will make a hell of a lot more than three times an invetsment at current prices.
You have to ask yourself is a 3 bagger enough for the BOD to accept??? Or is it not worth mining ourselves and reaping far more over a period of years! Rest assured they will not give this away, especially as PGM will be in short supply.
I agree totally Lancerman. My question was directed toward Billions.....
"Consortium is just being thrown about without any evidence".......there is no evidence for any of the projected scenarios.....
I posted a while back pointing out why it is nonsense to say '40m oz in the ground, 40m times X pounds an oz gives Y value'. What if half is under a layer of granite and another quarter in some compound form that's expensive to process?
A prospective buyer will assess the available info and deduce how much it will cost to extract X oz over a fixed time span.. say 20 years. And at what profit after the costs of extraction and processing. This formula determines their offer price. But they need info about the resource to do this.
The only way that the resource being large comes into play is that if there's enough there to mine for say 100 years, then at the end of the 20 year period, the resource is worth pretty much what it was to start with, assuming similar demand and accounting for inflation. So the original capital is safe and can be recovered, which is very attractive. If however, the resource is exhausted after 20 years, the original capital is lost and so the profits need to be much larger to account for this.
None of us on this board know anything about the resource other than this estimated 40m oz story. But we don't know how much can be extracted and at what cost. Without a Definitive Feasibility Study, we cannot form an opinion of guess at a value. The company and punters may know far more... it just hasn't been published as a DFS yet. The upshot being that we cannot know what this mine will sell for. As has been said, the bank and legal players involve suggest it ought to be a lot. Which is why I'm in here. But I have no illusions about price. At the least I hope to get y money back, at best make a 3 bagger overnight.
If you look at the industry. Mines are rarely operated by consortiums. It's just not practical and feasible.
Single and joint operations are preferred. If this was anglo American then maybe that would make sense.
But there is evidence of a JV or single buyer ??...
Consortium is just being thrown about without any evidence. This a very unlikely. Most likely a jv operation if not a single buyer.
I think we are looking at a consortium buy - hence the delay having do deal with lawyers from each bidder.
Strange that EM_Investor started tweeting again after such being MIA for so long.....
This is a long shot and thats what it is - but just looking at the times he has tweeted - 13:00 then 14:00 followed by 18:00 - are these possible bids in $bn ? - lol
Very logical approach and a realistic end valuation. 90-180p is justifiable. So an average of 135p is where I put the figure.
But again all speculation, we have no sight of the feasibility study and proved resources.
Some people on here don't really grasp the magnitude of difference between millions a billions.
Lancer, I’m confused or turned dyslexic or even worse going off my rocker. Did I read that you and Hoochy had left? Please explain so that I’m up to speed (no not on it)
ATB, Pete
@stevo999
Impossible to say until we know our resources.
GLA
Personally I would be very disappointed at any full sale less than 400 bucks per Oz. We would be giving it away given the low costs of recovery. The resources are so rare and valuable I would prefer to wait and mine it ourselves.
So many posters saying I have my decimal in the wrong place, I submit to your collective knowledge.
J4ams
Great effort.
Thats true but against potential profit an extra billion is not that much.
@stevo999,
People have started throwing billions around like it's small pocket change.
I doubt someone would pay an extra billion in a price war. Million yes, but not billion.
GlA
Avizandum1 - think your sum is wrong. 15m oz at $200 in the ground comes to 'just' $3bn - 82p per share.
"15Moz at $200 per oz in ground=$30B"
No its $3bn
Not a bad way of looking at a valuation J4ams
Reasonably logical stab at it, which generally accords with my many back of fag packet number crunching attempts coming out anywhere between £1.12 and £1.24