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Have we been told formally by Egdon or the Wressle partners when we can expect to see the new CPR from ERCE? I believe June has been mentioned but I can't find the relevant RNS, Anyway, it seems to me that if the CPR results come out in June or maybe just before the Petrichor deal concludes, then it could perhaps be argued that the result won't be a huge improvement on ERCE's last CPR. IMO this might mean that Egdon would be able to say to their shareholders "What a good deal we've secured for you at 4.5p per share". Or not, perhaps. On the other hand, if the CPR is delayed for a technical or even a commercial reason, then perhaps we can conclude that it contains excellent results in terms of additional Wressle reserves. We shall see!
Union Jack’s $16 million RNS (issued today) has arrived a bit faster than I'd expected. It means $2.5 million of gross income from Wressle in the 35 days since UJO's $15 million announcement on 10 May. It also means that the field has produced $40 million of gross income since coming on stream, which is pretty good IMHO. The latest $2.5 million of gross income divided by 35 is about $71,430 per day before deducting the operating costs. This is not bad either, since the price of oil and the £/$ exchange rate haven’t exactly been working in our favour lately. The well is still belting it out, not far short of 800 bopd of dry oil. Long may it continue!
Armada - nav's from last accounts for each company
I sincerely hope shareholders vote against it, but I don’t hold much hope.
How did you get to that NAV?
Sorry! The local planning authority is Lincolnshire County Council, not North Lincs as it was at Wressle.
I don't think we've been told much about the original well proposal but, bearing in mind how hard it usually is to find and negotiate for a well site that's anywhere near the intended down hole target, I'd assumed that NK would be a deviated well. So I'm left wondering if the planning inspector is inexperienced in oil-related matters, or maybe a bit of a twit, that he has decided to decline a deviated well. Let's hope that it doesn't take too long to get a new proposal submitted, and that the local authority - i assume it's North Lincs as at Wressle - will approve it this time.
Hi itsawrap. Thanks, that's an interesting comparison. But wouldn't the NAV of all three Wressle particpants increase, but not by the same amounts? Since UJO have 40%, compared with EDR's and EOG's 30%, I'd expect UJO's NAV to increase more than EDR's and EOG's
UJO nav 31.12.22 £23m - mcap £29.4m - 128% of nav
EOG nav 31.07.22 £11m - mcap £14.9m - 135% of nav
EDR nav 31.07.22 £31m - takeover £26.6m - 86% of nav
GP, is it correct to say that if the CPR shows a significant increase in recoverable reserves, EDRs NAV would increase?
The release of the Wressle CPR must be imminent as we've been told it will appear sometime in June. If that's the case, it must already exist as a draft report. I assume that Egdon, and perhaps their partners too, have already been advised how it looks. A delay in releasing it until after Heyco's takeover has been been completed or (remotely possible I guess) it fails, may tell us that it's looking good. If it's not much better than ERCE's earlier CPR then Egdon won't delay it as they'll probably want the Heyco T/O to look like a great deal for shareholders - which IMO it isn't!
As at 1/11/22 Harbour holding was 8.53% .
Is this a new position?
Https://drillordrop.com/2023/05/31/egdon-resources-seeks-10-more-years-at-waddock-cross-oil-site/
I've been here since 2014. This company is worth a lot more than what we're being offered and they know it. I will be voting against the offer
Including 270,000 ordinary shares held by Susan Abbott, the wife of Mark Abbott, 90,000 ordinary shares held by Richard Abbott, the son of Mark Abbott, 100,000 ordinary shares held by Catherine Abbott, the daughter of Mark Abbott and 5,200 ordinary shares held by Gwendoline Mary Abbott, the mother of Mark Abbott.
I did more or less the same. Can only presume that Mr A has a highly lucrative contract of employment lined up.
The current 4.35p SP suggests, to me anyway, that the market is expecting Heyco's 4.5p bid will be successful. They held over 40% before announcing it, which is presumably why they made such a disappointingly low 4.5p offer. I'm now kicking myself that I didn't sell more of my holding during the temporary lifting of the fracking moratorium. As it was, I sold only 17% of what I then held at about 7.8p, expecting the SP to go still higher. I should have sold the lot, but I guess you can't win 'em all.
Further RNSes - so there are clearly people, already holding, taking positions that a better offer is on the cards.... Hope they're right! I'll be holding out for more.
Interesting .. Odey Asset Management took a sizeable stake in IGAS last summer if I remember correctly - looking to capitalise on a relaxation of fracking legislation .. pretty sure they sold out after Truss resigned, and the susequent U Turn on fracking policy by Sunak.
Meant to say 30% of the Wressle oilfield.
Will Petrichor still be allowed to buy more shares off the MM now that an offer is on the table, would seem logical to snap up as many as they can below the offer price!
Europa (EOG) still got 30% WN, with their low M Cap maybe they will be the next take-over target.
Those disclosures today by Odey Asset Management look interesting. They, or someone they act for, opening or increasing long positions. Am I reading that right?
So like some of us here, believe the current offer well undervalues us.
It seems like a done deal, but there's Aim space for complete let down and investible sp drop if it didn't happen.
The difference on my holding would have been 500ish GBP. I wanted certainty and saw another opportunity.
To those who hold and wait - GLA
The trades at 4.3p are sells
MF2017, why didn’t you wait for 4.5p? All the buys at 4.3p are punters who want the extra 0.2p.
That’s 4.65% return in a short space of time.