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Those disclosures today by Odey Asset Management look interesting. They, or someone they act for, opening or increasing long positions. Am I reading that right?
So like some of us here, believe the current offer well undervalues us.
I'll be voting against as well. I'd rather stick my shares in the bottom drawer for a few years. The company is debt free! We have regular profitable income. We have prospects. We have (for our size) substantial tax-loss cover to off-set against future profits. We are not going bust any time soon!! LOL What we don't have is a decent proactive bunch of directions to drive the company forward so there is an even better story to tell and then the market may wake up! Instead they are happy to ditch small investors as they will still keep their jobs and maybe get a bonus for pushing this through. Petrichor are not offering us 4.5p for charitable reasons! They are doing it as they see the value.
There doesn't seem to be any sign of purchases in the market. Though I guess someone could be gathering what becomes available without it showing at the moment, but not apparent yet. They have to announce any purchases (think anyone over 1% in offer period) and I think it is stricter timelines when in an offer period. But what is the point they are actually bought, if someone gathering a "bulk purchase". My guess is they'll sit tight now. But who knows.
Min of 75% required to cross the line. I think Petrichor own about 48% at moment, and have total of other confirmed backers for 14.23%. So as I understand it, they need just under 13% more. Not a lot, so they will probably do it. But think, while lots are being sold to MMs, most ordinary investors will hold to see what happens. Don't think MMs will hand theirs over until last minute either. So will probably happen....but stranger things. Given they own 48% already Petrichor really only have to make a higher offer for half the company value. I still think - and they know it - offer well under values the Co current known value etc, and future potential.
We all know that BoDs always have close contact with biggest shareholders and will be influenced by them in a way that small investors never can. Only natural.
But I think this cheap take over now also puts the Aurora Production purchase into perspective. Their assets didn't seem exciting, so why bother. But when it was stated that they had tax losses of about GBP90 million that should be available to offset tax on future profits, I thought - interesting. Clearly the BoD can see a good profitable future, and able to make use of the tax cover.
But clearly our biggest investor also saw a use for the tax cover and perhaps encouraged the board to grab it for its value, with the intent of a later offer for whole of us. And that offer not fully valuing our assets, not reflected currently in share price.
A decent BoD would have rejected the offer for whole of EDR, saying it doesn't fully reflect value - regardless of share price and left it for us to decide ourselves. Instead, they played up the offer value against recent closing prices. But I guess they will keep their management jobs, maybe with a bonus for nodding it through, or get a golden send off if they are surplus to requirements later on. So bugger the small investors.
So I'm still crossing my fingers that someone will buy up as much as they can before the vote and stay as a minority shareholder or force a decent offer, which will still return a profit to them. Or make an offer themselves that our current major shareholder sees as too good to refuse.
Here's hoping / dreaming!
So what will happen next. Another month of funding...we stagger on. Even the directors will surely run out of cash soon enough.... Then what happens.
And they have taken to blame the market for the company valuation. Their own poor financial mismanagement has nothing to do with it of course.
And as for a buyer, there is the chance that any buyer will simply wait for a possible collapse and then buy much lower. We have no absolute given right to continue to exist.
Interesting comment in an article in today's Daily Mail by journalist, Dominic Lawson, (son of former chancellor of same surname). Some of you probably already aware of Sunak's views.Dominic Lawson says Rishi Sunak was more in favour of lifting ban on fracking than BJ. If so, then one assumes that will remain and be renewed as policy - especially after vote passed again in parliament last week. (despite chaos)So EDR and others - get on with it! Show peeps it works and all can benefit in some way!https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11347049/DOMINIC-LAWSON-Rishi-Sunak-real-Right-winger.html
PM44, don't think you are being generous enough. I think Dr sinclair's buy, over £45k, in a company this size is huge. He will know what way the land lays at the moment - even if news is not imminent, and I suspect not. But in these troubled times, and at this stage in development, I can't believe that his purchase is just a red or black gamble, or he could not think of anywhere else to put the money. If I had the funds, I'd be in for more after him.
Well after all the anticipation, seems to me to be a bit of a non-event in terms of issues that would depress or excite. Basically steady as she goes. The business is stable solid and financed, and has access to further funds.
They seem confident about sale of KL. So suspect they have particular party in mind. Maybe that party has dragged feet, waiting on results to see if the sale price could be dragged lower. But nothing in results suggests that it will.
So we now look to the Budget, where I suspect Kier will benefit and also housing – and perhaps make KL an even more attractive proposition?
Who knows what point the process is at. But it could be a long way to fruition. Even due D and contracts to be announced and signed in weeks or months ahead. I think to be honest no one knows for sure. There appears to be less short positions, so would seem even big shorters aren't sure what way this will go, otherwise why not keep open, or increase, especially in negative markets anyway. Less than forty eight hours to go and if it's good news lets hope it's not lost in choppy seas of market chaos!
Draw, the vast majority of cases are in northern hemisphere countries - where it gets cold in the winter. including Iran. The Tenerife cases are all in the same part as the Italian doctor. Don't think there are any cases in southern hemisphere not traceable back to the north.
Well I don't know all the detail of the debt or where it's at right now, or how good or bad the results will be. And I suspect they are being brought forward just to allow the company to "move on" as soon as they are out of the way. So I expect a clearing out of bad news too. But also show the company is going to be managed more efficiently in future.
Alos while there is a lot of talk of recession at the moment, due to the impact of the No 45 Chinese thingie - and some company profits are going to be hit hard. Just think of how many peeps might cancel flights around Easter alone. Easy Jet and Ryanair especially have a lot more pain to come. So what sort of Co would be good to invest in. What about one with lots of contracts with guaranteed local and central government funding here in the UK. Especially when you're involved in a very high profile project that the gov have a big vested interest in seeing a success. I think that is why, even if the results are just reasonable, then bigger funds will flow here.
But hopefully with the northern hemisphere spring and warmer sunshine just around the corner, the lovely Corna will disappear like spring snow!
Thanks Chuggley. I think the problem today is more to do with the Chinese No 45 thingie and how the markets are viewing the threat to commerce. Cannot see how we would be impacted, given we have mostly big UK contracts backed and paid for by local and central government. But I think a lot of the fall today is just us coming out in sympathy.
Fear about Coronavirus pandemic clearly stalking the markets today. Most probably because of surprising situation in Italy. thing is it's all northern hemisphere countries suffering in winter.....but spring sunshine coming soon to warm us all up and kill nasty viruses! :)
And given Kier's work is large, central and local Gov backed, UK infrastructure/housing projects at least we are sheltered from worst of any hits that commerce will take. But when FTSE 100 tanks, I guess we'll have to come out in just in sympathy!
We all hoping for another tech update soon. Still, the fact Birmingham NHS Hospitals - people that know the science, and probably a bit more about what is going on behind the scenes, and are a reputable UK specialists in cancer treatment - are prepared to already formally sign as partners must say a lot in itself. I mean in simplistic terms would they become formally engaged with something that was "mickey mouse". I suggest not. We haven't seen the "proof of the pudding" yet. But there would appear to be a very strong smell coming from that oven!
Next week the doors open legally for PE to make another attempt...if he wants. After he walked away last Nov, he had to wait for another bidder to act first, or the BOD to give him permission - which was unlikely. So could be an interesting time coming up for the SP now that he is free to act again....